New Challenges in Agricultural Statistics

1. New Challenges in Agricultural Statistics Haluk KasnakogluStatistics Division, FAO MEXSAI, Third International Conference on Agricultural Statistics 2-4 November, 2004 Cancun, Mexico

2. Outline • Theme of MEXSAI “From Agricultural to Rural Development Indicators” • New Issues and Challenges • FAO Activities

3. Is There a Need to Review the Domain of Agricultural Statistics? • Why do we ask? • Agriculture is loosing importance so we should shift to other domains? • We have exhausted agriculture and have time remaining to do other things? • We could not manage agriculture and try our luck in other domains? • No demand for current domains? • The problems and issues to be addressed are changing?

4. Is Agriculture Getting Less Important? • Share in Population • Share in Labour Force • Share in Value of Output • Share in International Trade • Share in Public Expenditures • Share in Household Expenditures

5. Share of Agriculture in Population • 42 % of the world population in 2004 • 51% of the world population in 1980 • More than 40% of the total population in one-third of the countries. • Between 15-40% of the total population in one-third of the countries • Less than 15% in the remaining one-third of the countries

6. Share of Agriculture in Output Value • Agriculture accounted for 4 % of the world’s total GDP in 2002 • The share of agriculture in total world GDP in 1980 was 5% • In nearly 40% of the countries the share of agriculture in GDP is more than 20%. • In 60% of the countries the share of agricultural GDP is more than 10% • In nearly quarter of the countries the share of agricultural GDP is less than 5%

7. Share of Agriculture in Trade (X) • Share of primary (and some first level processed) agricultural products in value of world trade in 2002 was 7% as compared to 12% in the early 80’s. • In more than one-third of the countries, the share agricultural exports in total exports is more than 20%. • In nearly one-quarter of the countries on the other hand the share of agriculture in exports is less than 4%.

8. Share of Agriculture in Trade (M) • Share of agricultural imports in total import value is more than 20% in more than 20% of the countries • Agriculture constitutes more than 10% of the import bill in nearly 70% of the countries • The share of agriculture in import bill and export earnings substantially increase when we account for processed agricultural products and agricultural inputs.

9. Share in Public and Private Expenditures • Share of Support to Agriculture in GDP’s • About 1.5% in OECD countries • About 5-10% in many developing countries • Share of Food in Household Budgets • About 10-20% in developed countries • About 20-40% in fast developing countries • Over 50% in least developed countries • Share of all agriculture related items (clothing, wood) is higher

10. In summary, • Agriculture preserves its importance as an economic activity for populations in most countries • The monetary value of agriculture’s output is low as before. • The importance of agricultural trade in primary products is diminishing but that of processed agricultural commodities is increasing. • Public expenditures in agriculture are in a downward trend • Share in household expenditures of food and agricultural commodities diminishes in higher income countries. • The range for importance of agriculture is large • And…

11. Few Big Players! • 5 countries account for • 50% of world’s GDP • 40% of world’s agricultural GDP • 65% of world’s agricultural population • 50% of world’s food production (calories) • 50% of word’s food consumption (calories) • 40% of world’s agricultural exports • 40% of world agricultural imports • China, USA, India, Brazil, France, Germany are among the key players.

12. Nothing Else Left to Do in Agriculture? • For traditional domains like production and yields on the supply side and land, labor, fertilizers and tractors on the input side may be yes. • A lot more to do in other areas such as prices, margins, costs, incomes to name a few. • Agricultural economists are way ahead in terms of research agenda and long started working with simulated data. • Agricultural statisticians are way behind busy with fine tuning of sample frames and lost in micro issues.

13. Less Demand for Agricultural Statistics? • Unfortunately Yes, because • What is produced is not what is demanded • Timeleness • The Golden Rule • Not rich in data points to feed new advances in statistics and econometrics • Agricultural policy makers are not interested in agricultural statistics.

14. So…. • There is a lot to do in the area of agricultural statistics both at the national and international levels. • Nevertheless there is a need for re-aligning agricultural statistics to new problems and user requirements. • Agricultural and rural statistics are not alternatives but could complement each other. • There is a need for statisticians focusing on both but not in the expense of the other.

15. Routes for Expansion • Agriculture to Rural • Why Rural? Because of Agriculture Production? • Supply Oriented • What is Rural • Resources to Production • Economic Accounts • Input-Output and SAM • Producer to Consumer • Consumer is the other actor • Consumers are in the rural as well as urban areas • Agriculture to Agro-Industry • This is where the value added occurs • Connection between production and consumption • Agriculture to Related Non-Agriculture • Forward and Backward Linkages • Integrating Agriculture to Rest of Economy

16. Some more thoughts... • One of the problems with agricultural statistics has been the concentration on the supply side and the producer and neglect of the demand side and the consumer. • The shift in emphasis from agriculture to rural statistics as opposed to the other alternative routes could be a continuation of this old lasting problem. • One of the problems with agricultural policies and contributing to their inefficiencies have been the confusion of targets between agriculture and rural development. • Neither all rural problems can expected to be solved through agricultural policy nor would agricultural policy be the most efficient way to tackle all rural development issues. • Shifting the focus by agricultural statisticians to rural statistics can also contribute to this confusion and inefficiency in both agricultural and rural development policies.

17. New Issues and Challenges • Wider Scope of Agricultural Statistics • Agriculture is covered when the supply, demand and the market issues are addressed simultaneously • Agriculture is integrated to the rest of the economy and cannot be studied in isolation • Nations are integrated to the rest of the world and cannot be studied in isolation • Micro-Data and Confidentiality • Everybody wants micro-data but nobody wants to share theirs with others • Quality of Statistics • Quality of statistics depends on the quality at the source, processing and the user levels. • Meta Data • With internet there is an inflation of information and statistics from different sources with different definitions and quality and many times not differentiable due to limited meta data. • Common Definitions and Classifications • A must for integration of information at all levels

18. What FAO is doing? • Reviewing Conceptual Framework • Integration to the International Statistical System • Modernization of FAOSTAT • New Product “CountryStat” • New Approach to Agricultural Censuses • Multi-Layered Quality Assessment and Monitoring

19. FAOSTAT Conceptual Framework

20. Integration to International Statistical System • Review of Agriculture Related Classifications • HS, CPC, ISIC • Others (Occupation, Resources, Country, etc) • Collaboration in Compilation and Processing • Trade – UNSD, OECD, FAO • Labour –ILO • Data/Knowledge Exchange

21. New FAOSTAT - January 2006

22. An Example FAOSTAT Module

23. CountryStat – 9 Pilots in 2005

24. New Agricultural Census Framework

25. New Census from Country Perspective

26. FAO Statistical Data Quality Framework

27. I invite you to visit the FAO Statistics DivisionWeb Page www.fao.org/es/ess/ for our work on these new initiatives and the FAOSTAT Web Page www.fao.org/faostat/ to follow the progress in FAOSTAT and CountryStat. Thank you......