UNCERTAINTY TREATMENT IN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELLING

1. UNCERTAINTY TREATMENT IN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELLING Lessons learned from previous workshops Lecture at workshop UN/ECE Task Forceon Integrated Assessment Modelling January 24, 2002 Dr. Marjolein B.A. van Asselt International Centre for Integrative Studies (ICIS) Maastricht University The Netherlands

2. CONTENTS • History of IA modelling and uncertainty • EFIEA workshop on Uncertainty • ESF-TERM II workshop on Dealing with uncertainty in environmental management • RIVM expert workshop on Uncertainty ‘leidraad’

3. Club of Rome; 1st generation integratedcomputer simulation models Energy-environmentmodels Among others: Bailey et al., ’96, Risbey et al., ’96, Rotmans and van Asselt, ’96, Morgan and Dowlatabadi, ’96, Parson, ’96, Schneider, ’97, Ravetz, ’97, Jäger, ’98, Rotmans and Dowlatabadi, ‘98 First IA models: RAINS, IMAGE, DICE A wealth of IA models (climate change, acidification, global change) O’Neill; Importance of uncertainty in environmental modelling 1970s 1980s PhD Hettelingh: uncertainty in regional IAMs Janssen et al. RIVM report Uncertainty & Sensitivity analysis 1990s ICAM (probability based IAM) TARGETS, QUEST (perspective-based uncertainty analysis) PhD van der Sluijs: Uncertainty & IAMs Refelections on IA  uncertainty identified as critical topic July ’99: EFIEA workshop on uncertainty Nov ’00: ESF-TERM II workshop on Dealing with uncertainty Oct ’01: RIVM expert workshop uncertainty 2002

4. 16th century Descartes 17th century 18th century 19th century 1905 1960 2002 Club of Rome; 1st generation integratedcomputer simulation models O’Neill; Importance of uncertainty in environmental modelling Enlightenment: reason and objectivity as key values Dominance of positivism: the search for and prediction of empirical regularities to make universal, true statements / perfect, complete knowledge; uncertainty is unscientific Energy-environmentmodels Einstein’s new physic: relativism instead of absolutism First IA models: RAINS, IMAGE, DICE PhD Hettelingh: uncertainty in regional IAMs Janssen et al. RIVM report Uncertainty & Sensitivity analysis Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle ICAM (probability based IAM) TARGETS, QUEST (perspective-based uncertainty analysis) “sceptical crisis” • post-modernism: truth and certainty are illusions • social constructivism: knowledge is constructed PhD van der Sluijs: Uncertainty & IAMs Refelections on IA  uncertainty identified as critical topic A wealth of IA models (climate change, acidification, global change) July ’99: EFIEA workshop on uncertainty Nov ’00: ESF-TERM II workshop on Dealing with uncertainty Oct ’01: RIVM expert workshop uncertainty uncomfortable splits: acceptance of uncertainty positivist practice ongoing search for uncertainty management

5. EFIEA workshop on Uncertainty • European Forum on Integrated Environmental Assessment www.vu.nl/ivm/efiea • 10-18 July 1999 • Baden bei Wien, Austria • Organisors Jill Jäger and Carlo Jaeger •  40 participants

6. EFIEA workshop on Uncertaintytopics • Uncertainty and climate change • Integrated Water Assessment • Uncertainty in Economic analysis • Uncertainty in IA modelling • Uncertainty in participatory IA • Expert elicitation • IA focus groups • Ad hoc groups on No regret policies and on interface users-producers Integrated Assessments

7. For example, Integrated water assessment; participation; cultural differences; changing role of science in society; IPCC; integration of macro-economic with bottom-up technological models EFIEA workshop on Uncertainty • Report edited by Jill Jaeger: • No consensus report • Broad collection of ideas • My (subjective) evaluation: • Community-wide recognition for uncertainty as important topic in IA (milestone) • Model(lers)-oriented • Rich and useful discussions but not focussed on uncertainty, but more broadly on IA

8. EFIEA workshop on Uncertaintyconcluding statements • “There are different notions of what uncertainty is and means. At least there is a distinction between uncertainties as viewed by decision-makers, uncertainties in the real world and model uncertainties.” • “It is important to assess new methods to handle unquantifiable uncertainties” • “There is not one method that suffices in doing uncertainty analysis for IAM” • “Stories behind the numbers ease the discussion of uncertainties” • “Participatory processes may be used to evaluate the uncertainty about particular outcomes / as tool for improving our understanding of disagreements”

9. EFIEA workshop on Uncertaintysuggestions • Peer review system for validating IAMs (validation protocols, testing procedures) • Competition within and between ‘families’ of models • Need for intermediate/communication interfaces • Assessment through series of what-if analyses / multiple scenarios

10. “Not in order to produce the ultimate typology of uncertainties, but to clarify the differences in terminology” EFIEA workshop on UncertaintyIdentified research questions & themes • Classification/taxonomy of uncertainty • Uncertainty and disagreement/dissent/value diversity • How do decision-makers deal with uncertainty? What do they need to know to be able to act? • Assessment of extremes/extreme events, outliers, poorly known/small probability - high consequence scenarios and cumulation of uncertainty • How to do expert elicitation in a sound way? • Communication of uncertainty (both inside and outside scientific community)

11. Workshop “Dealing with uncertainty in environmental management” • European Science Foundation TERM II programme • 1-3 November 2000 • Maastricht, the Netherlands • Organised by Marjolein van Asselt & Rob Maas; hosted by ICIS & RIVM •  40 participants

12. ESF workshop on Dealing with uncertaintytopics • Institutional and policy dimensions • Uncertainty in integrated assessmentcases transboundary air pollution, RIVM’s environmental outlooks, water • Pluralistic uncertainty management (PRIMA) • Agenda-setting for social-scientific research Uncertainty in relation to perception and social construction Uncertainty is more than statistics/mathematical artefact

13. “I want to further explore uncertainty” “Uncertainty has become more than just a mythical concept” “I learned to see uncertainty as an opportunity and challenge, and less as a risk” “ I used to be afraid of pluralism” ESF workshop on Dealing with uncertainty • Binder with abstracts, papers and slides and internal report for ESF • My (subjective) evaluation: • broad interest in uncertainty management • box of Pandora feeling • primarily a ‘consuming’ audience • more uncertainty awareness than uncertainty management workshop

14. ESF workshop on Dealing with uncertaintyIdentified research questions & themes • criteria for uncertainty management (in what cases does uncertainty management add value?) • institutional factors, contexts and arrangements • uncertainty i.r.t. type of policy problems /phases in policy life cycle • uncertainty about policy responses and decision-making processes • uncertainty requires permanent learning; how to facilitate learning processes (continuous dialogue/interaction scientists-decisionmakers)? • willingness to accept uncertain outcomes • pluralistic uncertainty managent - convergence • ambiguity/ debatable constructed certainties / diverging certainties • communication of uncertainty • responsibility of scientists, codes of ethics

15. ESF workshop on Dealing with uncertaintyObservations • “Uncertainty management is not possible without a clear problem definition” • “Mismatch: Scientists address a subset of uncertainties policy makers need, and at the same time policy makers don’t need the degree of precision scientists are aiming at”

16. ESF workshop on Dealing with uncertaintysuggestions • Strengthen communication between natural sciences and social sciences on uncertainty • Including more perspectives and assumptions force politicians to discuss what they want to take responsibility for • (Type of) uncertainty as filter for selecting relevant stakeholders • Fields we can learn from: risk & hazard management, game theory, discourse analysis

17. Expert workshop on uncertainty ‘leidraad’ • RIVM • 25 October 2001 • Utrecht, the Netherlands • Organised by Jeroen van der Sluijs (Utrecht University) •  15 experts

18. Expert workshop on uncertainty ‘leidraad’ topics • Uncertainty and problem framing • Typologies • Quantitative methods • Qualitative methods • Interplay science and policy / post-normal science

19. Expert workshop on uncertainty ‘leidraad’ • “Leidraad” see Presentation Jeroen van der Sluijs (tomorrow); paper in preparation Harremous et al. • My (subjective) evaluation: • high-level constructive discussions and collective thinking among variety of uncertainty experts • shared recognition of the need for interdisciplinary and inter-institute teamwork • agreement to disagree (typology, terminology)

20. EFIEA workshop (‘99): milestone in putting uncertainty on IA agenda

21. ESF workshop (‘00): uncertainty awareness & broader recognition EFIEA workshop (‘99): milestone in putting uncertainty on IA agenda

22. Expert workshop (‘01): teamwork towards uncertainty management ESF workshop (‘00): uncertainty awareness & broader recognition EFIEA workshop (‘99): milestone in putting uncertainty on IA agenda

23. I wish us a fruitful and succesful workshop! UN/ECE Task force workshop (‘02): ??????? Expert workshop (‘01): teamwork towards uncertainty management ESF workshop (‘00): uncertainty awareness & broader recognition EFIEA workshop (‘99): milestone in putting uncertainty on IA agenda