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Foster Brown Woods Hole Research Center/Federal University of Acre

The Reason for REDD+ Climate Perturbation in Southwestern Amazonia The Road to Copenhagen: Progress and Challenges on Sustainable Development in Chico Mendes‘ Homeland. Foster Brown Woods Hole Research Center/Federal University of Acre Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

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Foster Brown Woods Hole Research Center/Federal University of Acre

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  1. The Reason for REDD+ Climate Perturbation in Southwestern AmazoniaThe Road to Copenhagen: Progress and Challenges on Sustainable Development in Chico Mendes‘ Homeland Foster Brown Woods Hole Research Center/Federal University of Acre Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Washington, DC, 5 October 2009

  2. REDD+ • “…Policy approaches and positive incentives on issues relating to Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation in developing countries; and the role (+) of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries…” Bali Action Plan. http://www.globalcanopy.org/themedia/file/PDFs/LRB_lowres/lrb_en.pdf

  3. Acre and contiguous Madre de Dios, Peru and Pando, Bolivia (MAP Region): A disproportional share of mega projects – accelerating Global Environmental Change (source: M. Steinenger/ NASA) HIghway Guayaramerin- Yucumo US$460 millon HIghway Iñapari- Pacifico – US$ 810 millon 4,000 km de Navegable Rivers UHE Binational 3,000 MW US$ 10 billion UHE Jirau 3,900 MW UHE St, Antonio 3,600 MW InambariDam 2,000 MW US$ 4 billion. Lago Titicaca Beni Puerto Maldonado Rondônia Iberia Cobija Pando Acre Rio Branco Highway to Cruzeiro do Sul US$ 250 millon

  4. Climateequationforsouthwestern Amazonia: (1) Natural Climate Variability + (2) Regional Climate Change + (3) Global Climate Change = (4) Climate perturbation, examples 2005 and 2006. (Do we add or do we multiply?) Flooding Rio Branco, Acre, Feb 2006

  5. Climate perturbation in 2005 and 2006: A possible future for southwestern Amazonia? Meio dia, Acrelândia, 17set05

  6. The Drought of Amazonia in 2005 (2008, Journal of Climate, 495-516) José A, Marengo*, Carlos A, Nobre*, Javier Tomasella*, Marcos D, Oyama**, Gilvan Sampaio de Oliveira*, Rafael de Oliveira*, Helio Camargo*, Lincoln M, Alves*, Irving Foster Brown*** *CPTEC/INPE, São Paulo, Brazil ** CTA/IAE, São Paulo, Brazil ***WHRC/UFAC

  7. 30Jun05 The drought was apparent already in June: “Crisis in water supply – government and municipality fear total collapse with the drying of the river”

  8. Observed rainfall anomalies product CPTEC/INPE 2004-2005 (Marengo et al. 2008, J. of Climate). Drought of May-September 2005 >> western Amazonia Acre

  9. With the extreme drought, the rain forests changed from being barriers for fire and became kindling,just needing an ignition source. M. Maciel 5out05

  10. Focos de calor em 2005 na Regiao MAP NOAA-12, MODIS (Aqua+Terra) GOES (INPE) Ignition sources in the trinational MAP Region in 2005 Satélites AQUA, GOES-12, NOAA-12 e TERRA, em 2005 na região MAP. Fonte: http://www.dpi.inpe.br/proarco/bdqueimadas

  11. Result: “Acre will declare a State of Emergency” 21 September 2005

  12. Fires propagating in rain forests of Acre >1 km No trails, how to fight these fires? How many firemen are necessary? 27Set05

  13. Eastern Acre, Brazil, October 2005, Fire scars and impacted forests >340,000 ha (Pantoja & Brown 2009) Rio Branco Xapuri

  14. COSTS • Fire-Impacted Forests • Acre: > 330,000 ha • Pando: > 120,000 ha • Madre de Dios: >> 20,000 ha • Total: > 470,000 ha. • If the impact was equal to the fine of US$ 500/ha, then the region became more than US$235 million dollars poorer in environmental services. Implications for REDD. • Official total damages estimated at US$ 80 million, without including loss of environmental services (AVADAN, Santos 2006)

  15. Four months later: severe flooding in Rio Branco Gazeta, 17Feb06

  16. From one extreme to another in 2006 19Feb06 Rio Branco, flooding 3 months 13May06 GAZETA p, 1 River level below that of 2005. Foto: F, Brown

  17. (1) Natural Climate Variability

  18. River level in Manaus – function of rainfall in upstream rivers, such as the Juruá and Purus. Manaus Acre Region Source: Goulding et al. 2003, cited by Alonso et al. 2006.

  19. The river level at Manaus in 2005, was only the 6th lowest in 103 years. Note the frequency of droughts at the beginning of the 20th century Marengo et al (2008) and Cox (2007) ano

  20. Are we prepared for a drought equal to that of 1926 (natural variation without being amplified by anthropogenic climate change)?Social vulnerability has grown: urban population of Rio Branco from 20-30,000 to 250,000 (2005), but the Acre River discharge has apparently decreased. If we are not prepared, what should we do?

  21. Dry season Water vapor flux From pasture Dry season Water vapor flux From forest (2) Regional Climate Change 05out05 Eastern Acre

  22. 14 April 2005 GOES Image Return via the rivers Water vapor and clouds coming from the ocean “A River in the Air” Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) www.cptec.inpe.br

  23. Water transport from evaporation in the Atlantic Ocean during dry season rain Rain Evapo- transpiration Evapo- transpiration Return via rivers Return via rivers Pasture Forests

  24. Smoke and water transport from Amazonia to southern South America. EXPORTS 60% Summer rains of the South And Southeast 15% AEROSSOLS (source:Artaxo Neto)

  25. Regional Climate Change: Deforestation in eastern Amazonia could diminish rainfall in western Amazonia. Maintain forest cover is to maintain transpiration service. (Malhi et al. 2008. Science) 2050 Governance 2050 BAU

  26. Due to the transpiration service,Acre needs REDD+ in Mato Grosso, Para and Rondonia Likewise, Paulistas and Argentinians need REDD+ in Acre.

  27. (3) Global Climate Change IPCC (2007) Working Group 1, Capitulo 6, p. 448

  28. SOHO- 304 nm 04Oct09 07:19http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/ • It isn’t the sun; the greenhouse gas accumulation is the best explanation for the temperature increase in the past 50 years. • This rate of temperature increase is roughly 20x faster than in other geologic periods.

  29. Droughts such as that of 2005 could become more frequent with an increase in C02 concentrations . Cox et al. (2008) Nature. This means that forests will be subject to more water stress due to temperature increase and lack of water during the dry season.

  30. What happens? The forests lose carbon during severe droughts . Phillips et al. (2009). Science. How does REDD+ work when the forests are subject to degradation by climate perturbation?

  31. Illustrative calculation of the impact of the drought in Acre’s forests in 2005. • Loss from fires (short-term): • ~300,000 ha x 10? tC/ha = ~3(?) million tC liberated • Loss from increased mortality in drought-affected forests without fire impact • 14 million ha x ~0.5 tC/ha = ~7(?) million tC liberated • Regrowth could absorb this carbon over time, nullifying the effect….or not. • Deforestation flux: • 40,000 ha/yr x 100 (?) tC/ha = 4 (?) million tC (2005-2006) • Fire and water stress are everywhere, not just in Acre.

  32. Is this vulnerability an argument against REDD+? • To the contrary, it makes REDD+ all the more urgent. • Need to control fires, develop fire-free alternatives for agriculture. • Develop early warning systems to reduce risks. • Show that REDD+ is not enough, pressure all governments and economies to change to a low-carbon emitting mode.

  33. Model results suggest that BAU will lead to more extreme events becoming the rule. Example of Marengo et al. (2009) for 2070-2100. More consecutive wet days More extreme rains More consecutive dry days When it rains, it will likely pour, with long periods of drought.

  34. Observations of Indigenous peoples Feijó, Acre, Brasil 20-21 March 2009

  35. Preoccupations of the Nova Vida Village. Shanenawa, 20mar09. Current situation: drought, hot and polluted.

  36. REDD+ is only part of the solution. Amazonian forests contain about 100 billion tons of carbon. If a significant fraction of this carbon is released, it will make stabilizing the composition of the earth’s atmosphere even more difficult. The vulnerability of Amazonian forests and their environmental services - carbon uptake and storage, transpiration – makes implementing REDD+ imperative, as well as rapidly reducing carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion.

  37. We need to do better for early warning systems for climate perturbations. The May 2005 prediction of Columbia University’s IRI Center missed the site of the drought by 2000 km. Observed rainfall anomalies – Sept 2005 (Marengo et al. 2008) Acre Acre

  38. Acre is already advancing on this topic.Dissemination of fire risk and pollution . State Secretariat of the Environment - SEMA

  39. Conclusions • Regional deforestation (loss of transpiration services) and global greenhouse gas accumulation will likely act as steroids for natural climate variability in Acre, unless immediate actions are taken to change Business-As-Usual. At the same time social vulnerability is increasing. • REDD+ is essential to reduce carbon emissions from deforestation and to minimize carbon loss from forest fires in SW Amazonia. • It will be much cheaper to avoid anthropogenic climate change than trying to repair its impacts, especially for tropical forests and regional societies.

  40. Thank you for your attention. Foster Brown fbrown@uol.com.br

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