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Technology Roadmaps and Technology Insertion

Technology Roadmaps and Technology Insertion. February 3, 2000. Presented By: Angie Kelic sly@mit.edu. Research Sponsored By The Lean Aerospace Initiative Product Development Focus Team. Outline. Motivation Technology Insertion Key Questions Hypothesis Technology Roadmaps Study

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Technology Roadmaps and Technology Insertion

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  1. Technology Roadmaps and Technology Insertion February 3, 2000 Presented By: Angie Kelic sly@mit.edu Research Sponsored By The Lean Aerospace Initiative Product Development Focus Team

  2. Outline • Motivation • Technology Insertion • Key Questions • Hypothesis • Technology Roadmaps Study • Theoretical Basis • Preliminary Results • Next Steps

  3. Motivation • The problem • Long product development timelines • Obsolescence in newly operational systems • Difficulty in upgrade programs • Varying technology timescales (clockspeeds) • Slower developing (example: airframe) • Faster developing (example: electronics)

  4. What We Do Know About Technology Insertion Charted territory: • Cost/benefit analyses • NASA Technology Insertion Milestones and Technology Readiness Levels Where the problems lie: • Technologies not developed with current application in mind • Unexpected impacts on other parts of the system • No well established technology insertion process • Incorrect assessment of technology “readiness”

  5. Key Questions • How can knowledge of new technology be brought to bear on the product development process? • How can technology readiness be determined effectively and consistently? • How does one determine the side effects of introducing new technology? “Our technology roadmaps tell us when to insert new technology”

  6. Hypothesis Technology roadmaps can be used to effectively predict technology performance and manage technology insertion

  7. Technology Roadmaps Study • Do roadmaps even exist in most cases? • How are roadmaps developed and by whom? • Are technology roadmaps and technology forecasting accurate? • Are there factors that are key to accuracy and what are they? • Are roadmaps actually used or are they simply developed?

  8. Theoretical Basis • Clockspeed - Fine • “fruit flies” • supply chain management • Technology forecasting - Irvine and Martin • Three levels of forecasting in industry • macro-level: broad trends, typically conducted by government agencies - DoD • sector-level forecasts: typically conducted by industrial associations, or multi-client consultancy organizations - Sematech, NCAT, AIAA, IEEE • specific research forecasts relating to particular technologies or new product lines - companies

  9. Do Roadmaps Exist? • YES!! • Two types: • investment direction roadmaps • how to spend research dollars • detailed technology roadmaps • predicting technology characteristics • combination of Delphi method and historical trend analysis • Varying levels of implementation

  10. Technology Roadmaps Study • Do roadmaps even exist in most cases? • How are roadmaps developed and by whom? • Are technology roadmaps and technology forecasting accurate? • Are there factors that are key to accuracy and what are they? • Are roadmaps actually used or are they simply developed?

  11. Detailed Technology Roadmaps • Experts on the technology make the roadmap • Information from array of sources • trade journals • information from suppliers • R&D • DoD, trade organization roadmaps • Review • peers, suppliers, upper management

  12. Roadmapping Process 2. Develop 1. Gather 3.Review Information 5. Distribute 6. Use? 4. Refine

  13. Technology Roadmaps Study • Do roadmaps even exist in most cases? • How are roadmaps developed and by whom? • Are technology roadmaps and technology forecasting accurate? • Are there factors that are key to accuracy and what are they? • Are roadmaps actually used or are they simply developed?

  14. Are They Effective in Prediction? • Gather old roadmaps • various technologies • roadmaps and updates • Examine variance in predictions • Examine actual state of the art for predicted year • Example: Semiconductor Industry Association Roadmaps

  15. SIA Roadmaps for Semiconductors

  16. Next Steps • Validate and refine the process description • Gather more roadmap data • Determine accuracy • Examine variance and attempt a correlation with technology characteristics • Participants to date: HP, Raytheon, ACC, Textron, AlliedSignal, Boeing, Sematech, Northrop-Grumman, Saab

  17. Technology Roadmaps Study • Do roadmaps even exist in most cases? • How are roadmaps developed and by whom? • Are technology roadmaps and technology forecasting accurate? • Are there factors that are key to accuracy and what are they? • Are roadmaps actually used or are they simply developed?

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