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19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya

International Conference on Air Pollution and Control ,CAPAC II. Plenary Lecture ENERGY UTILISATION TRENDS IN COMING 20 YEARS AND THEIR EFFECT ON GLOBAL WARMING. Prof. Dr.Ekrem EKINCI ITU Dept . Of Chemical Engineering Chairman of the Board Tdinamik Energy Company.

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19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya

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  1. International Conference on AirPollutionandControl,CAPAC II PlenaryLecture ENERGY UTILISATION TRENDS IN COMING 20 YEARS AND THEIR EFFECT ON GLOBAL WARMING Prof.Dr.Ekrem EKINCI ITU Dept. Of ChemicalEngineering Chairman of the Board TdinamikEnergyCompany 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya

  2. CONTENTS • IntroductionandScope • Global EnergyTrends • Energy UtilisationandGlobalWarming • TrendsforTurkey • Concluding Remarks 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya

  3. INTRODUCTION AND SCOPE (1/2) • Transportation, urbanisation, industrialisation,population growth,emerging mega economics, increasingmobility & consumertrends • Increaseddemand & utilisation of energy • Pollution, environmental regulationscompliance • Interphase between sustainability & catastrophe • Nothing like the dilemnas before (GW-climatic episodes) • Where are we going in terms of energy, utilisation? • IEA data, specialthanksto Fatih Birol 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya

  4. INTRODUCTION AND SCOPE (2/2) Senariosforfutureenergyuseanditseffect on GW • Business as usual, referencesenario • Continuewithpresent market drivenattitude • Ignoring global warming (suicidal)-2009 EIA • 450 Senario, keepwarmingbelow 2 °C • New policiessenario, in betweentwosenarios 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya

  5. GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS (1/6) World primary energy demand by fuelin the Reference Scenario 18 000 Other renewables Mtoe 16 000 Biomass 14 000 Hydro 12 000 Nuclear 10 000 8 000 Gas 6 000 Oil 4 000 Coal 2 000 WEO-2008 total 0 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Global demand grows by 40% between 2007 and 2030, with coal use rising most in absolute terms, IEA

  6. GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS (2/6) World primary energy demand in the Reference Scenario 12 000 China and India Mtoe Rest of non-OECD 10 000 OECD 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000 0 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Non-OECD countries account for 93% of the increase in global demand between 2007 & 2030, driven largely by China & India (IEA)

  7. GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS (3/6) Change in primary energy demand by fuelin the Reference Scenario, 2007-2030 Coal China Oil India Gas Other Asia Nuclear Middle East Hydro OECD Other Latin America Africa E. Europe/Eurasia 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya - 500 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 Mtoe The increase in China’s demand for energy – for coal in particular – dwarfs that of all other countries & regions (IEA)

  8. GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS (4/6) Change in coal production by type & regionin the Reference Scenario, 2007-2030 Steam coal China India Coking coal Indonesia Russia Brown coal & peat Australia United South Africa Colombia Rest of world 0 250 500 750 1 000 1 250 1 500 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya Mtce Over 60% of the growth in coal output in 2007-2030 is projected to come from China, as it strives to satisfy a near-doubling of domestic demand (IEA)

  9. GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS (5/6) World electricity generation by fuel in the Reference Scenario 2007 Oil 2015 Biomass 2030 Other renewables Nuclear Hydro Gas Coal 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya 0 4 000 8 000 12 000 16 000 TWh Power generation based on all types of energy except oil is projected to grow, with the biggest increases in absolute terms coming from coal- and gas-fired capacity (IEA)

  10. GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS (6/6) Coal-fired power-generation capacityunder construction by country China India Non-OECD 112 51 12 United States Europe Other 19 17 5 OECD 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya GW The bulk of coal-fired capacity currently being built is in non-OECD countries – more than half of the world total in China alone (IEA)

  11. ENERGY UTILISATION AND GLOBAL WARMING (1/23) Implications of the energy trends in the Reference Scenario, IEA • Current energy trends are environmentally, economically & socially patently unsustainable — • Rising CO2 emissions imply an inevitable rise in global greenhouse-gas concentration & potentially catastrophic climate change • Increasing oil & gas imports & prices threaten to exacerbate energy insecurity • Current energy trends in the least-developed regions would leave millions dependent on traditional fuels & lacking access to electricity 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya

  12. ENERGY UTILISATION AND GLOBAL WARMING (2/23) • Scientistsandadministration support groups from • Australia, Canada, China, India, Japan, South Korea, USA • Yearly average atmospheric T increasescenario • Population increase + energy demand • If business as usual, equilibrium warming range 1990 to 2100, estimatesaccordingto EPA data • low2.3 °C • best guess4.8 °C • high10.1 °C • 2.3°C warming, a monumental challenge 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya

  13. ENERGY UTILISATION AND GLOBAL WARMING (3/23) 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya

  14. ENERGY UTILISATION AND GLOBAL WARMING (4/23) • ChinaandIndiaraisingtheir CO2 emisionsto 2002 worldaveragemeans +4 billiontonnes of extra CO2 with 2008 populations. • ChinaandIndiaraisingtheir CO2 emissionstotwice 2002 worldaveragelevel 7.6 tonnes/ capitameansemission of nearly 14 billiontonnes of CO2 with 2008 populations • CO2 emissions in 2010 30.6 billiontonnes 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya

  15. ENERGY UTILISATION AND GLOBAL WARMING (5/23) Population by major region 2008 Africa 2035 India China Other Asia OECD Europe Latin America OECD North America E. Europe/Eurasia Middle East OECD Pacific 0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 1 800 Million 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya Global population – an important driver of energy needs – is projected to grow by 0.9% per year on average, from an estimated 6.7 billion in 2008 to 8.5 billion in 2035(IEA)

  16. ENERGY UTILISATION AND GLOBAL WARMING (6/23) Number of people without access to electricity (million) 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya 1.4 billion people lack access to electricity – achieving universal modern energy access requires investment of only $36 billion/year over the next two decades,IEA

  17. 2.5 Million 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 2008 2030 2008 2030 2008 2030 2008 2030 Malaria Tuberculosis Smoke from HIV/AIDS biomass ENERGY UTILISATION AND GLOBAL WARMING (7/23) 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya Based on analysis carried out jointly with the WHO, there are more people dying from smoke from biomass for cooking than from malaria or tuberculosis today. By 2030 over 4000 people will die prematurely every day from the effects of indoor smoke,IEA

  18. ENERGY UTILISATION AND GLOBAL WARMING (8/23) Overview of WEO-2010 scenarios • New Policies Scenario is the central scenario in WEO-2010 • assumes cautious implementation of recently announced commitments & plans, even if yet to be formally adopted • provides benchmark to assess achievements & limitations of recent developments in climate & energy policy • Current Policies Scenario takes into consideration only those policies that had been formally adopted by mid-2010 • equivalent to the Reference Scenario of past Outlooks 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya

  19. ENERGY UTILISATION AND GLOBAL WARMING (9/23) The 450 Scenario: A roadmap from 3.3-4.8C to 2C • The 450 Scenario sets out an energy pathway consistent with limiting the increase in temperature to 2C • Assumes vigorous implementation of Copenhagen Accord pledges to 2020 & much stronger action thereafter 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya

  20. ENERGY UTILISATION AND GLOBAL WARMING (10/23) • 450Scenario is low-carbon energy technologies and energy efficiencyprogrammetoavoid severe climate change by 2030 • Expectedtoimprove economics, health and energy-security • Cumulative incremental investment of $11.5 trillion is needed compared to referencescenario • Agreement on instruments, incentivesandfinancingof investments in non-OECD countries is still not clear • In 450 Scenarioin OECD countries carbon price reaches $50 pt of CO2 in 2020 and $110 in 2030 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya

  21. ENERGY UTILISATION AND GLOBAL WARMING (11/23) International oil price assumptions 140 Current Policies Scenario 120 New Policies Scenario 100 Dollars per barrel (2009) 450 Scenario 80 60 40 20 0 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035 The age of cheap oil is over, though policy action could bring lower international prices than would otherwise be the case

  22. ENERGY UTILISATION AND GLOBAL WARMING (12/23) Energy-related CO2 emissions by scenario 42 Gt 40 Reference Scenario 38 36 34 13.8 Gt 32 3.8 Gt 30 28 26 450 Scenario 2007 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya In the 450 Scenario, emissions peak before 2020 at 30.9 Gt, falling to 26.4 Gt by 2030 – almost 14 Gt lower than in the Reference Scenario (IEA)

  23. 45 Abatement Gt 2020 2030 2035 Ref. Scenario 40 Efficiency 71% 49% 48% – End-use (direct) 34% 24% 24% 35 – End-use (indirect) 33% 23% 23% – Power plants 3% 2% 1% 30 Renewables 18% 21% 21% Biofuels 1% 3% 3% 25 450 Scenario Nuclear 7% 9% 8% CCS 2% 17% 19% 20 3.5 15.1 20.9 Total (Gt CO2) 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 ENERGY UTILISATION AND GLOBAL WARMING (13/23) Energy efficiency & renewables arekey to abatement in the 450 Scenario World energy-related CO2 emissions savings in the 450 Scenario compared with the Current Policies Scenario, by measure 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya After 2020, the share of energy efficiency in total abatement declines,while more costly options like biofuels and CCS increase their share

  24. ENERGY UTILISATION AND GLOBAL WARMING (14/23) IEA’s remark on nuclear energy • Anotherfactorthatsuggestsemissionswillcontinuetheirclimb is thecrisis in thenuclearpowerindustry. • Followingthetsunamidamage at Fukushima, Japan and Germany havecalled a halt totheirreactorprogrammes, andothercountriesarereconsideringnuclearpower. • "Peoplemay not likenuclear, but it is one of themajortechnologiesforgeneratingelectricitywithoutcarbondioxide," saidBirol. Thegapleftbyscalingbacktheworld'snuclearambitions is unlikelyto be filledentirelybyrenewableenergy, meaning an increasedreliance on fossilfuels. 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya

  25. ENERGY UTILISATION AND GLOBAL WARMING (15/23) • World abatement of energy-related CO2 emissionsin the 450 Scenario, 2009 Gt 42 Reference Scenario 40 38 OECD+ Efficiency - 57% 36 34 13.8 Gt 3.8 Gt 32 OME Renewables & biofuels - 23% 30 Nuclear - 10% OC 28 CCS - 10% 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya 450 Scenario 26 2007 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 • Efficiency measures comprise two-thirds of the abatement in 2020, and 57% in 2030. Renewables contribute around one-fifth of the total emissions reduction. (IEA) 25

  26. ENERGY UTILISATION AND GLOBAL WARMING (16/23) The 450 Scenario: How do we get there now? World energy-related CO2 emission savings by country in the 450 Scenario 38 Gt 35.4 Gt Share of cumulative abatement between 2010-2035 36 New Policies Scenario 34 China 32% 32 United States 18% 30 European Union 8% 13.7 Gt 28 India 7% 26 Middle East 4% Russia 4% 24 450 Scenario Rest of world 27% 22 21.7 Gt 20 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 In the 450 Scenario, China & the US together account for 50% of the cumulative emission abatement that is needed in 2010-2035

  27. ENERGY UTILISATION AND GLOBAL WARMING (17/23) Achieving the 2°C goal will require rapid decarbonisation of global energy Average annual change in CO2 intensity in the 450 scenario 1990-2008 2008-2020 2020-2035 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% A four-fold increase needed 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya -5% -6% Carbon intensity would have to fall at twice the rate of 1990-2008 in the period 2008-2020 & almost four times faster in 2020-2035

  28. ENERGY UTILISATION AND GLOBAL WARMING (18/23) World primary energy demandby fuel & scenario in 2030 Reference Scenario Coal -47% 450 Scenario Oil -15% Gas -17% Nuclear +49% Renewables +33% 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 Mtoe 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya The share of fossil fuels in total primary energy demand in the 450 Scenario declines from 81% today to 68% in 2030, with gas remaining at close to today’s levels of 20% (IEA)

  29. ENERGY UTILISATION AND GLOBAL WARMING (19/23) Primary energy demand in Chinaby fuel & scenario 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya Coal use barely rises above 2007 levels by 2030 in the 450 Scenario – a huge reduction on the Reference Scenario – thanks to electricity savings & switching to low-carbon technologies (IEA)

  30. ENERGY UTILISATION AND GLOBAL WARMING (20/23) The benefits of renewables Emission and oil-import bill savings in 2035 in the New Policies Scenario vis-à-vis the Current Policies Scenario 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya 0% CO2 emissions SO2 emissions NOx emissions Oil import bills Renewables avoid the emission of 2 Gt of CO2 in 2035, relative to the Current Policies Scenario; oil-importing countries see their bills reduced by almost $130 billion in 2035

  31. ENERGY UTILISATION AND GLOBAL WARMING (21/23) • Cap and trade a market-based approach to controlpollution by providingeconomicincentive for achieving reductions in emissions ofpollutants • A central authority sets a limit or capon emissions • Limit or cap is allocated or sold to firms as right to emit or discharge a specific volume of the specified pollutant • Permits cannot exceed the cap, limiting total emissions to a specifiedlevel • Firms that need to increase their emission permits must buy them from those who require fewer permits 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya

  32. ENERGY UTILISATION AND GLOBAL WARMING (22/23) • C footprint –Global, trading system • Water footprint– Local, no trading system • LONG TERM RESPONSIBILITY & LONG TERM COST • Waste water treatment/Petroleum basedindustrial culture mix and treat • Refininganddefining role tocoalandoilshaleindustriesmustgothroughpetroleumculture 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya

  33. ENERGY UTILISATION AND GLOBAL WARMING (23/23) The limit to continued growth of coal use depends highly on environmental policies World primary coal demand by scenario 8 000 Mtce 7 000 Current Policies Scenario 6 000 5 000 New Policies Scenario 4 000 3 000 450 Scenario 2 000 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya Global coal demand grows by 1.7%, 0.6% and -1.0% on average over 2008-2035 in the three scenarios, respectively

  34. TRENDS FOR TURKEY (1/17) • Sixthbiggesteconomy in Europe • Fastrecoveryafterthe global financialcrisis: 8,9% GDP growth in 2010, II. Fastestgrowing,2011 • Sixthbiggestelectricity market in Europe • Electricitydemandincrease 6,7% (lowscenario) or 7,5% (highscenario) untill 2020 • Electricitydemand; 2009: % 2,3 2010: % 8,1 • Investmentrequiredmorethan $ 100 bl. forthenext 15 years 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya

  35. TRENDS FOR TURKEY (2/17) TURKEY TOTAL INSTALLED POWER (MW), 1980-2010 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya

  36. TRENDS FOR TURKEY (3/17) Total InstalledCapacitybyResources as of January 2011, Turkey 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya 1.500 MW newcapacityadded in 2011 tillJune

  37. 9RENDS FOR TURKEY (4/17) 2010 Electricity Production in Turkey (TEİAŞ) 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya

  38. SUPPORT MECHANISMS FOR RENEWABLES(5/17) • income tax deductions, • property tax exemptions, • tax credits, • loans or loan guaranties, • investment credit subsidies • depreciation allowances & • FITs. … as the most effective and efficient mechanism 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya

  39. TRENDS FOR TURKEY (6/17) HydroUSDolarCent/kWh 7,3 WindUSDolarCent/kWh 7,3 GeothermalUSDolarCent/kWh 10,5 Solar USDolarCent/kWh 13,3 BiomassUSDolarCent/kWh 13,3 Additionalpricefordomestictechnologyfor 5 years thatrenewablebasedfacilitieswill be underoperation beforeend of year 2015 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya

  40. FID’S IN SOME EUROPEA COUNTRIES(7/17) Country WP onshore Solar PV BiomassHydro France 0.082 0.31-0.58 0.125 0.06 Germany 0.05-0.09 0.29-0.55 0.08-0.12 0.04-0.13 Italy 0.3 0.36-0.44 0.2-0.3 0.22 Netherlands 0.118 0.459-0.583 0.115-0.125 0.073-0.125 Spain 0.073 0.32-0.34 0.107-0.158 0.077 UK 0.31 0.42 0.12 0.23 Pricespaidfor 'self-produced' electricity is called a feed-in tariff. Pricesare in eurosperkilowatt-hour (€/kWh) Pricesvalidfor April 1st, 2010. 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya

  41. CASE:SPAIN-SOLAR PV(8/17) 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya

  42. Cape: Spain 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya

  43. SOLAR PV PRODUCTION(10/17) 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya

  44. TRENDS FOR TURKEY (1117) Winddevelopment in Turkey (MW, installed) 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya

  45. TRENDS FOR WIND ENERGY INTURKEY (12/17) REPA - TURKISH WIND ENERGY POTENTIAL ATLAS (10) 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya Windenergypotential (annualaveragewindspeed>7 m/s), 50 m a.g.l.

  46. TRENDS FOR WIND ENERGY InTHE WORLD (13/17) 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya

  47. TRENDS FOR theWorld (14/17) Solar Power Potential in the world 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya

  48. TRENDS FOR TURKEY (15/17) GEPA – Turkish Solar Energy Potential Atlas (2) 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya

  49. DOES HE CHANGE OUR VİEW ON GW? A Deeper Partisan Divide Over Global Warming , Pew Research Center, May 8, 2008 4-9 September 2011, WEC 2011

  50. CONCLUDİNG REMARKS Continuation of bauenergyutilisationtrendswill definitelyleadto GW andcatastrope Definedandunderconsiderationmeasuresso far lowertherisks but fail torealisethe 2°C limit CPS 450 senariowillkeepwarmingbelow 2 °C Over 11 trilyon $’s needed, source of which is not defined Turkey’senergyutilisation has not a determining weight in itscontributionand it is not in accordance with GW 450 Senario 19-23 September 2011, CAPAC II, Antalya

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