Report to GCOS SC-XVI Ocean Observations Panel for Climate

1. Report to GCOS SC-XVIOcean Observations Panel for Climate D.E.Harrison, Chair NOAA/PMEL WMO HQ October 2008

2. Ocean Observations Panel for Climate - Terms of Reference • Develop recommendations for a sustained global ocean observing system, in support of WCRP, GOOS and GCOS climate objectives, including phased implementation. • Help develop a process for ongoing evaluation and evolution of system and recommendations. • Support global ocean observing activities by involved parties, via liaison and advocacy for agreed observing plans

3. Overview • Ocean O.S. remains mostly in PI-research-driven world, motivated by national research goals. • Few National Ocean “Services”. GOOS paradigm ok? • National Agents of Implementation generally have not come forward following GEO/IOC request. • Can the OS be sustained even for next decade via science community, in the face of demands to deliver services and not ‘just’ science? ?Coord. Funders? • Implementation progress in situ nearly flat-lined. CEOS test - Jason-3. Many R&D and data system challenges, esp. for system evolution. ?National JCOMM support diminishing? • Ocean climate information development proceeding slowly, through ocean analysis; reanalysis; science • OceanObs2009 Conf. to expand community and seek agreement on priorities for 2nd decade of O.O.S.

4. Needed – Next Ocean Science Framework • CLIVAR ends in 2013; its basin activities have helped with much of the global ocean observing system • New framework(s) required if the global observing system is to be sustained via national support for ocean science program(s), unless OS funding arrangements change dramatically. • Global-Coastal? Global-Ecosys? opportunities? • Timing re v2 GCOS IP and OObs09?

5. Some Ocean Science Issues • Almost everything about low-frequency ocean conditions is pretty uncertain, including trends. • Deep ocean sampling seems needed but TBD. • Hard to do uncertainty estimates, especially on world ocean averages, because we have such poor historical sampling. • Lots of decadal variability. Trend estimates over a decade or so are not useful for projecting long term trends. • How much decadal predictability? • Interest in ocean carbon uptake and acidification and ecosystem impacts is high but what specifically can we deliver?

6. Some efforts last year • Data System – metadata for temperature profiles, BUFFR for real-time oceanography, toward real-time for CTD profiles, ongoing QC conversations, improved system monitoring • In-Situ Hardware – animal profiles, improved Argo life, O2 and hydrophones on Argo, sub-daily SST and SLP from surface drifters, more real-time tide gauges • Outreach to non-physical variable communities. • Pressing science communities for indices/info suggestions and analysis/forecast communities for OSEs and uncertainty estimates.

7. Selected Meetings w. OOPC Participation Since GCOS SC15 2007: • Oct 31GOOS outreach Lon • Nov 5-7 OSE/OSSE Paris • CoML 14-17Auckland, NZ • Nov 29-30Autumn COSC • Dec 3-6 JCOMM MAN VI Paris • Dec 5-7 GSOP Velocity review SIO 2008: • Jan 3 IOC on OceanObs/Info09 • Jan 9-11 POGO9 Bermuda • Jan 14-15 operational oceanography mtg at NCEP • Jan 28-Feb 1 3rd Reanalysis Wkshp Tokyo • March 10-12 XBT fallrate workshop AOML • March 13-14 GSOP-III Southampton UK • March 24-26 CWG Review Princeton NJ • March 31-4 Apr JSC 29 Bordeaux (Arcachon), France

8. 2008 continued: • Mar 31-4Apr, Sensors Warnemunde, Ger • April 7 pre-GSSC GOOS wkshp Paris • April 8-10 GSSC Paris • April 10-11 PICO Paris • April 8-12 El Nino Definition mtg. UHawaii • April 21-25 AOPC Geneva • May 5-9 WCRP Modeling Summit ECMWF • May 6-9 CLIMAR-III Gydnia Poland • May 19-23 Gijon ICES/PICES/IOC • Jun 2-4 IGST DC • June 9-13 OOPC 13 Buenos Aires • June30-4July GCOS Geneva • July 7-8 OSMC PMEL • July 7-11 Boston, IGARSS • July 22-24 MAST Arlington VA • Aug 26-28 PMEL Lab Review • Sept 3-5 DC OCO Annual Review • Sept 9-10 Darmstadt Eumetsat MetSat conf • Sept 29-Oct3 WOAP, Boulder • Oct 6-7 OceanSynth-III Jamstec/Tokyo • Oct 13-16 DBCP Cape Town

9. Status, In-situ • 10-yr phased implementation plan is ~60% complete • Argo floats and surface drifters reached initial goal (1250 and 3000, respectively) in previous years. • For the first time the ice-free upper ocean is being fairly systematically observed; T,S • Situation, compared with historical record is impressive, but little progress last year. • VOS, XBT, tide gauge issues • Growing financial pressures just to sustain

10. 5x5 regions meeting ‘climate SST bias’ data requirement

11. Argo Density – 3 profiles/month per 3x3 region

12. Initial Global Ocean Observing System for Climate Status against the GCOS Implementation Plan and JCOMM targets Total in situ networks 60% February 2008 87% 100% 62% 81% 100% 43% 79% 24% 48% Milestones Drifters 2005 Argo 2007

13. Progress Toward Global Coverage (representative milestones) Goal 2001 2002 2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Real-time Stations Initial GCOS Subset 170 112 102 Tide Gauges 85 79 67 67 69 51 56 1250 1250 1250 1294 1258 779 787 807 671 Number of buoys 975 Surface Drifting Buoys 131 97 103 Number of moorings 86 91 Tropical Moored Buoys 77 77 79 79 83 High resolution and frequently repeated lines occupied 51 41 41 41 39 Ships of Opportunity 27 26 26 24 23 3055 3000 3000 Number of floats 544 20 31 Argo Floats 2240 2557 1572 923 Number of observatories, flux, and ocean transport stations 87 43 42 41 47 37 15 35 Reference Stations 29 46 Ice buoys, drifting and Moored stations 73 21 19 19 20 20 Arctic System 18 24 21 21 37 Repeat Sections Committed, One inventory per 10 years 1 20 22 Ocean Carbon Network 0 0 15 17 5 9 882 340 Days at sea (NOAA contribution) Dedicated Ship Time 492 489 468 370 370 458 458 458 Essential Climate Variables Reported (NOAA contribution) 15 3 1 Analysis Products 8 0 1 1 4 5 6 Initial Ocean Observing System Milestones including international contributions Initial Targets 30 34 40 44 48 53 60 66 77 100 System % Complete Index 60 59 45 40 34 30 Total System 55 56 48 Goal 2001 2002 2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

14. Status, Satellite • CEOS virtual constellations proposed, but implementation not assured. • European progress for multiple missions of some sensors, but JASON3 is a test. • Need for Chinese and Indian participation to complete some constellations • Most ocean sensor missions still in research agencies • Future generally not clear

15. Would like to have updated version of this summary: Ocean Satellite Status Summary NOTE: Needs to have Surface Vector Winds added.

16. State of the Ocean • Overview at: http://ioc3.unesco.org/oopc/state_of_the_ocean/all/ • Time series of the selected indices is available by clicking out of that table. • Time series are updated weekly if data are available, monthly otherwise • External feedback is that more interpretation is desired…how to provide this service?

17. Nino 3.4 SSTA: 1/82-10/08

18. NINO 3.4 SSTA: 10/06-10/08

19. Intense discussion Summer ’08 about sea ice observation issues.

20. NOTE: Area minimum was slightly less than in 2007; timing difference accounts for substantially smaller monthly area anomaly.

21. Sea Level Issues • Generally not appreciated how spatially variable are local relative sea level trends • Most of the world’s coast is not being measured. Need to know local trends for society. • Over next decades local conditions may dominate Climate Change…but where and for how long? Where not? • Seems like an opportunity via the adaptation agenda?

22. Global Sea Level Topex-Poseidon + Jason + tide gauges From: Univ of Colorado S.Nerem et al

23. 20th century sea level rise Satellite altimetry Holgate and Woodworth, 2004 1.8 +/- 0.3 mm/yr Church et al., 2004, 2006

24. Estimated Vertical Land Movement, Washington State Complex Space Structure. Local effect can overwhelm global sea level rise.

25. Sea Level, Marshall Is. N.Trop.Pac Altimeter-era larger trends are similar in amplitude to those over some earlier periods Lots of interannual and decadal variability

26. Toward OceanObs2009see: www.oceanobs2009.net D.E.Harrison NOAA/PMEL, OOPC Detlef Stammer U. Kiel, GSOP GCOS SC-XVI

27. Conference Goals • Celebrate progress implementing the vision from OceanObs1999, realizing benefits from it and highlighting potential if continued • Develop community consensus for sustaining and developing the system for its second decade of societal benefits

28. Conference Vision Strengthen and enhance the international framework, for sustained world ocean observing and information systems supporting the needs of society about ocean weather, climate, ecosystems, carbon and biogeochemistry

29. Conference Structure • Plenary papers on plans for coming decade to be agreed by sub-communities in advance and circulated widely for feedback • Plenary talks will summarize sub-community developed White Papers • White Paper submission screen • Additional Contributions • WP and ACs will be presented in 2-hour afternoon poster sessions. • Daily panel discussions

30. Meeting Outcomes • Broader-marine-community agreement on aspirations for the coming decade. • Input to v.2 of GCOS Implementation Plan, for the sustained open ocean observing system. ?Timing? • New cross-community connections • Conference publication of Plenary Papers and White Papers • Electronic publication of Additional Contributions

31. Daily Agenda • Overview and Celebration of Progress • Scientific Results from global Observations • Societal Benefits and Opportunities • Frontiers of Global Ocean Observations • The Way Forward

32. Day 5 –”Way Forward” • The program committee lacks agreement about how best to handle this final day. • It’s easy to talk about the unified vision for a new decade, but we have few mechanisms for accomplishing the vision. The system appears most likely to depend once again on individual PIs, with little global coordination among nations or funding sources. • The nuts and bolts community would like to present ocean basin plans, but this would turn away from the services perspective we seek to promote • The Euro “My Ocean” approach will already have gotten some publicity

33. Tasks Ahead • Each of the observing, analysis/forecast and data system sub-communities to: • Develop plan for their aspirations for the coming decade • Prepare White Papers and posters for OceanObs09 • Participate in preparation of Plenary Papers and in development of consensus for coming decade.

34. Comments/Suggestions Sought! • Budget restricted… No budget for Organizing/Program committee meetings or for participant travel. • Registration fee likely to have to be Euro300. • ?Developing world participation?

35. THANK YOU

36. Observing System Status Details • The following slides are from Mike Johnson’s overview at the NOAA Office of Climate Observations Annual Review presentation, Sept 2008.

37. Surface Drifting Buoys 1250 sustained array achieved 281 Moored Buoys reporting

38. Tropical Moored Buoys • TAO/TRITON sustained • PIRATA Extensions implemented • RAMA getting started

39. Argo Profiling Float Array 3000 floats achieved

40. GCOS Climate Reference Network of Tide Gauge Stations

41. Upper Ocean Thermal Line Sampling Well sampled lines: 18 Over sampled lines: 1 50% sampled lines: 3 Under sampled lines: 14 Lines not yet occupied: 10 41 of 51 UOT XBT lines now occupied.

42. Volunteer Observing Ships 910 VOS reporting at least 25 weather observations per month. 215 VOSClim ships registered

43. NOAA Contributions Future NSF OOI Deploying and maintaining 89 Ocean Reference Stations (43 now in service)

44. Measuring Ocean Carbon Sources and Sinks • 1. Inventory 10-year survey • 2. Ships of opportunity • 3. Moored buoy time series 38% complete

45. IPY -- legacy (sustained)Arctic Observing Network Sustained Arctic Observing Network International Design to be completed in 2008

46. Animal Oceanographers?