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Maximizing TRM Effectiveness: Importance of Evaluation Research

This presentation discusses the significance of evaluation research in assessing, calibrating, and updating Technical Reference Manuals (TRMs). It explores TRM use in regulatory reporting, non-energy impacts, cost-effectiveness, and program comparisons, as well as advantages and disadvantages. It presents TRM examples and various research approaches for energy savings measurement. Case studies highlight the findings from billing analysis and program evaluations.

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Maximizing TRM Effectiveness: Importance of Evaluation Research

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  1. Testing Really Matters for Technical Reference ManualsThe Need for Evaluation Research to Assess, Calibrate, and Update TRMs Jackie Berger Home Performance Conference April 3, 2019

  2. Projection 2

  3. Bad Forecast? 3

  4. Projections Time Magazine, November 8, 2016 Associated Press Nate Silver Princeton Election Consortium Moody’s Analytics …With just hours to go until the polls close on Election Day, pollsters and predictors have released their final maps of the 2016 election—and most agree that Hillary Clinton will win, but no one agrees by how much. 4

  5. November 9, 2016 5

  6. Overview 6

  7. Technical Reference Manuals 7

  8. What are TRMs? 8

  9. Baseline 9

  10. TRM Examples 10

  11. TRM Use 11

  12. How are TRMs Used? 12

  13. TRM UseRegulatory Reporting 13

  14. TRM UseNon-Energy Impacts 14

  15. TRM UseCost-Effectiveness 15

  16. TRM UseProgram Comparisons 16

  17. How are TRMs Used?EE Resource Standards 17

  18. Decoupling 18

  19. Additional research approaches 19

  20. Energy Saving Measurement Approaches 20

  21. Billing Analysis A B 12 Months Pre-Wx Energy Usage Weather Normalize 12 Months Post-Wx Energy Usage Weather Normalize Wx Date A-B Gross Energy Savings C-D 1-12 Months Pre-Wx Energy Usage Weather Normalize 13-24 Months Pre-Wx Energy Usage Weather Normalize Comp. Group Wx Date Comp. Group Savings D C Net Savings Comparison Group Savings Gross Energy Savings C-D A-B 21

  22. Billing Analysis 22

  23. TRM advantages and disadvantages 23

  24. Tradeoffs of Estimation Approaches 24

  25. Data Needs for Estimation Approaches 25

  26. TRM Advantages 26

  27. TRM DisadvantagesAssumptions/Information 27

  28. TRM Disadvantages 28

  29. TRM examples 29

  30. PROGRAM 1 example 30

  31. Low-Income EEMean Electric & Gas Saved 31

  32. Low-Income EERealization Rates 32

  33. Low-Income EEElectric Measure Savings 33

  34. Low-Income EEElectric Measure Realization 34

  35. Low-Income EEGas Measure Savings 35

  36. Low-Income EEGas Measure Realization 36

  37. Low-Income EEBilling Analysis Findings Electric Baseload Jobs 37

  38. Low-Income EEBilling Analysis Findings 38

  39. PROGRAM 2 example 39

  40. Res High-EfficiencyFurnace Replacement 40

  41. Res High-EfficiencyFurnace Replacement 41

  42. Res High-EfficiencyFurnace Replacement TRM updated based on first evaluation findings. 42

  43. Res High-Efficiency Furnace Replacement Evaluation 2 Revised TRM 43

  44. PROGRAM 3 example 44

  45. South Jersey GasHome Performance Savings estimates statistically significant at 99% level. NJCEP required at least 25% projected savings for $5,000 rebate. 45

  46. South Jersey GasHome Performance *Denotes significance at the 99 percent level. 46

  47. South Jersey GasHome Performance 47

  48. PROGRAM 4example 48

  49. All Electric Program Savings from one Program Based on Different State TRMs 49

  50. PROGRAM 5 example 50

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