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Baseline comparison

Baseline comparison. Livestock and dairy sectors OECD, USDA, FAPRI. Main features for meat. Growing meat production, consumption and trade driven by sustained economic growth (notably in Asia and Latin America) Trade would strengthen over the medium-term as consumption grows in net importing

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Baseline comparison

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  1. Baseline comparison Livestock and dairy sectors OECD, USDA, FAPRI EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  2. Main features for meat • Growing meat production, consumption and trade driven by sustained economic growth (notably in Asia and Latin America) • Trade would strengthen over the medium-term as consumption grows in net importing • Prices are supported by increasing demand and strengthening feed prices • Animal diseases and food safety issues increase market segmentation by limiting market access to potential meat exporters • Two important underlying assumptions: robust economic growth and no further animal disease disruption EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  3. Beef prospects • World beef production and consumption to increase by 1.8 %and 1.7 % respectively per year (FAPRI) • OECD zone to expand production (+0.7 %) and consumption(1 %) • Trade: after two years of decline, trade to increase by 30 % between 2001 and 2009 (I.e. 1.2 mio t and 1.5 mio t) driven by Russia, Asia and Mexico EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  4. Beef world trade - major importersFAPRI baseline EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  5. Beef world prices ($/t lw) EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  6. Beef world trade - outlook EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  7. Beef imports - Japan EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  8. Beef imports - Russia EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  9. Beef imports - Mexico EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  10. Beef net exports - Brazil EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  11. Beef net trade - USA EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  12. Beef exports - Argentina EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  13. Pork prospects • World pork production: to continue increasing, albeit at lower pace than before; over 2001-2009, + 7 % (OECD zone) and15 % (FAPRI) • but competition from poultry and (in some regions) constraints linked to environmental and animal welfare standards • China: 50 % of world growth (OECD-FAPRI) • Strong consumption growth: driven by Asia (China 14 %) and Latin America (Brazil +16 % & Mexico +22 %); developed countries show moderate growth • Trade: to rise by 2.9 % per year in USDA (750 000 t) and 5.3 % (FAPRI 1 150 000 t) EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  14. Pork trade - World EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  15. Pork imports - Japan EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  16. Pork imports - Russia EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  17. Pork imports - Mexico EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  18. Pork exports - Canada EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  19. Pork exports - EU EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  20. Pork exports - USA EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  21. Poultry prospects • All market fundamentals show robust growth: • Short-term: benefited from sanitary crises • Medium-term: supported by low cost advantage and consumer preferences: consumption to rise 2.0 % per year (OECD-FAPRI) • Trade to expand by 3 to 4 % p. a. (1.3 mio t USDA - 1.8 mio t FAPRI) EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  22. Poultry trade - World EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  23. Poultry net imports - China EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  24. Poultry imports - Russia EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  25. Poultry imports - Mexico EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  26. Poultry exports - Brazil EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  27. Poultry exports - USA EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  28. Poultry net exports - EU EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  29. Poultry meat projections for the EU EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  30. Main features of dairy markets • Outlook driven by strengthening demand stimulated by economic growth in Asia, Lat. America and Middle East • Consumption of dairy products shows moderate growth in developed economies (except cheese and WMP) and strong increase in developing countries (higher disposable income, urbanisation, dietary changes) • Trade to show some growth, in value-added, differentiated products and markets => trade projections more complex & depend on dairy firms cost structure, production and marketing strategy EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  31. Milk production • Global increase from 2001 to 2007: +61 mio t (+1.9 % p.a. or 12%) OECD and FAPRI (+1.2 % p.a. or 8 %); • Growth in milk production to take place mainly in non-OECD area (China, India, Brazil, Argentina) • OECD production growth below 1 %; US at 9 % & NZ-AUS at 15 - 30 % in OECD and 10-15 % FAPRI; • Russia : still a question mark (FAPRI vs. OECD) EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  32. Annual change in world milk production(selected countries, FAPRI data, in thousand mt) EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  33. Russia milk production(in million mt) EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  34. Main features for butter • Growth in production and consumption between 1.8 % p.a. (FAPRI - 0.6 mio t in total) & 2.3 % p.a. (OECD-1.0 mio t in total). Most of it in developing countries (mainly in India in FAPRI and ROW-CH-RUS in OECD) • OECD outlook: stagnation in OECD zone over 2001-2007 (i.e. -2.5 % per capita), while 25 % in non-OECD zone (i.e.more than 10 % per capita) • Most additional demand met by domestic production, yet scope for increase in trade (+164 000 in OECD; + 70 000 in FAPRI); 3 players on export side for around 90 % of total trade (EU; NZ; AUS) with little market share change • Prices: bottom out in 2000-2001, then gradual recovery • Strong dependence on Russia (main import market) EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  35. Butter per capita consumptionOECD data (in kg) EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  36. Butter per capita consumption - Russia (in kg) EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  37. World butter and cheese prices( in US $/t) EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  38. World butter trade(in thousand mt) EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  39. Butter net exports - EU(in thousand mt) EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  40. Butter net imports - Russia(in thousand mt) EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  41. Main features for cheese • Cheese: dairy product displaying strongest gains • Production and consumption to grow between 11 % (FAPRI) and 13 % (2.1 % per year, OECD) with 60 % additional demand from OECD area (=80% of global use in 2000) mainly from the EU and US; (non-OECD zone: +24 %, I.e. 13 % per capita in OECD, mainly RUS, CH; ROW) • Most additional cheese demand met by domestic production, except Russia, Japan & ROW; Cheese trade expands 200 000 t in OECD (+63 %) and 177 000 t in FAPRI (+21 %) • Exports: AUS and NZ mainly winners; EU (slightly less) • Prices: increase steadily over the MT EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  42. Cheese per capita consumptionOECD data (in kg) EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  43. Cheese per capita consumptionRussia (in kg) EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  44. World cheese trade(in thousand mt) EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  45. Cheese net exports - EU(in thousand mt) EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  46. Cheese net exports - New Zealand(in thousand mt) EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  47. Cheese net exports - Australia(in thousand mt) EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  48. Cheese net imports - Russia(in thousand mt) EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  49. SMP per capita consumption OECD data (in kg) EU Commission - DG VI-A2

  50. World SMP trade(in thousand mt) EU Commission - DG VI-A2

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