1 / 34

Perspectives on Economic Growth

lucian
Download Presentation

Perspectives on Economic Growth

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

    2. Parthenon Economic Perspectives

    3. War with Iraq Stalled the Recovery

    4. A Persistent Fed Boosted Housing to Offset Business Weakness

    5. Household Income Growth Has Remained Solid: Federal Tax Cuts Have Offset Other Income Problems

    6. Now, Equipment Spending is Set to Lead

    7. A More Upbeat Assessment of 2002 & 2003 Job Growth

    8. Parthenon Economic Perspectives

    9. Deflation Is Not Here Today, and Not Likely Tomorrow Most Aggregate Price Indexes Are Still Rising

    10. For Consumers, Only Durables’ Prices Are Falling, and…..

    12. Parthenon Economic Perspectives An Elusive Recovery Deflation? Temporarily Cheap Debt Growth Accelerants

    13. The Fed Will Raise Rates Significantly in a Year Reacting, with a Lag as Always, to Job Growth and Inflation

    14. Pressures on Bond Market Yields Will Bring Sharply Higher Costs of Long-Term Debt

    15. Profits Will Continue to Rise as the Economy Recovers Supporting a 12-month S&P 500 target of 1200 vs 1000 today Placeholder Using your trade association data from 1985 through 1999, models reflecting this structure have been estimated for scissors and total boom sales. With regard to lags in response, sales are driven by the level and change in construction spending in the current and prior two years. The estimates confirm a greater sensitivity of lifts to manufacturing activity; boom sales are almost totally driven by nonresidential construction. To estimate a potential impact of rental consolidation in 1999, an additional variable was added to identify any special deviation in 1999.Using your trade association data from 1985 through 1999, models reflecting this structure have been estimated for scissors and total boom sales. With regard to lags in response, sales are driven by the level and change in construction spending in the current and prior two years. The estimates confirm a greater sensitivity of lifts to manufacturing activity; boom sales are almost totally driven by nonresidential construction. To estimate a potential impact of rental consolidation in 1999, an additional variable was added to identify any special deviation in 1999.

    16. Parthenon Economic Perspectives An Elusive Recovery Deflation? Temporarily Cheap Debt Growth Accelerants

    17. Growth Accelerants: Technology Spending Impacts of GDP Recovery Are Huge

    18. High-Tech Capital Spending Recovering As Predicted Last Year

    19. Roger Brinner Executive Director And Chief Economist Data Resources (DRI/McGraw-Hill) Presented To Microsoft Corporation Executive Client Summit Laguna Niguel, California October 28, 1994

    20. Is Your Business Subject To “The Business Cycle”? One view: No, sales growth is almost entirely keyed to: Hot product introductions Technology breakthroughs Marketing and sales promotion efforts In other words, supply issues dominate

    21. An Alternate View: Yes, sales growth is very sensitive to: My customers’ cash flows My prices relative to those of other solutions open to my customers The prices of hardware or software used in conjunction with my product In other words, demand issues are vital Is Your Business Subject To “The Business Cycle”?

    22. Is Your Business Subject To “The Business Cycle”? Computer Hardware Answer: Yes

    23. Is Your Business Subject To “The Business Cycle”? Software Answer: Yes

    24. Links to the economy can be clarified by statistical analysis. Unit sales of software respond as follows: A 1% rise in corporate cashflow translates into a 2+% rise in sales within 12 months In addition to this cycle, unit sales growth has averaged 15% per year from 1987-93 A 1% decline in hardware prices translates into a 1% gain in unit software sales Is Your Business Subject To “The Business Cycle”?

    25. Is Your Business Subject To “The Business Cycle”?

    26. Another Decade of Data Confirms the Patterns “1- 2 - 3” for Software Growth 1% GDP Growth => 2+ % Cash Flow Growth => 3+ % Software Growth

    27. Information Industry Employment Trails Spending

    28. Recent History and Annual Outlook

    29. Growth Accelerants: Beyond the Rising Economic Tide

    30. Indicators of Pricing Opportunities

    31. Pricing Is The Grossly Neglected Orphan of Profit Management What is the value of the test to the test-takers? What is preventing me from charging the full value, rather than my cost or my traditional price?

    32. Case Study –Information Provider Overview

    33. Case Study –Information Provider Initial Hypotheses / Analytical Framework

    34. Case Study –Information Provider Competitive Response Analyzing competitive response to price increases can inform views of future reactions Our client’s main competitor had a clear history of following our client’s price increases, and even dropped prices on one product to match our price

    35. Case Study –Information Provider Transaction Discipline and Exceptions Minimizing revenue impact of exceptions can be a large and fast source of revenue improvements Segmenting sales and discounting history can uncover best sales practices to help field sales reps adhere to new policies

More Related