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Aims

Update on Population Statistics Research Projects Jonny Tinsley, Population Statistics Research Unit psru@ons.gov.uk. Aims. Update on research projects to improve population statistics Work collaboratively to ensure the research results and timeliness of method changes meet user needs

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Aims

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  1. Update on Population Statistics Research ProjectsJonny Tinsley, Population Statistics Research Unitpsru@ons.gov.uk

  2. Aims • Update on research projects to improve population statistics • Work collaboratively to ensure the research results and timeliness of method changes meet user needs • Discussion of UK Statistics Authority assessment of migration statistics

  3. Components of change For LAD Everytown

  4. Review of internal migration method

  5. Basic method PR t1 PR t2 LA 1 LA 2

  6. Basic method 2 HA 1 48 40 HA 2 LA 1 120 LA 3 LA 2 60 72

  7. Inaccuracies in Internal Migration Estimates

  8. Inaccuracies in Internal Migration Estimates

  9. Inaccuracies in Internal Migration Estimates Census PR PR LA 1 LA 2

  10. Inaccuracies in Internal Migration Estimates

  11. Inaccuracies in Internal Migration Estimates

  12. Inaccuracies in Internal Migration Estimates

  13. Problems inflating all moves within a HA

  14. Interventions research • How do we best adjust for ‘classic’ lagged moves on the patient register ?: data linkage or by modelling • How do we protect against lagged moves across the Census date?: linking Census with patient register • How to we best account for the missed moves?: improve NHSCR use or switch to Personal Demographic Service data

  15. Review of long-term international emigration method

  16. Definition • ONS use the United Nations recommended definition of an international long-term migrant: • a person who moves to a country other than that of his or her usual residence for a period of at least a year (12 months), so that the country of destination effectively becomes his or her new country of usual residence

  17. IPS estimates of long-term emigration at regional level (2011)

  18. IPS estimates of long-term emigration at regional level (2011)

  19. Emigration model specification Stepwise model IPS estimate of LA emigration (3 year average) Final model used to estimate LA totals Covariate 1 Covariate 2 Covariate 3 Covariate i Constrain to regional total Model age/sex

  20. Updated model for year ending mid-2012 emigration estimates at LA level 2011 Census Number of hostels (+) Annual Population Survey Migrant Worker Scan Number of people of North American country of birth (+) Number of people of Oceania country of birth (+) LA emigration estimates Number of people of African country of birth (+) Number of in-migrants of EU8 nationality (+) Number of people aged 16+ in employment (-)

  21. Updated model for year ending mid-2012 emigration estimates at LA level 2011 Census Number of hostels (+) Annual Population Survey Migrant Worker Scan Number of people of North American country of birth (+) Number of people of Oceania country of birth (+) LA emigration estimates Number of people of African country of birth (+) Number of in-migrants of EU8 nationality (+) Number of people aged 16+ in employment (-)

  22. Updated model for year ending mid-2012 emigration estimates at LA level 2011 Census Number of hostels (+) Annual Population Survey Migrant Worker Scan Number of people of North American country of birth (+) Number of people of Oceania country of birth (+) LA emigration estimates Number of people of African country of birth (+) Number of in-migrants of EU8 nationality (+) Number of people aged 16+ in employment (-)

  23. Interventions research • Reviewing the covariates – what is associated with emigration? but also giving weight to what is intuitive, and is likely to be sensitive to change (non-Census variables) • Can admin sources available to ONS be used to distribute the regional IPS total more directly? • If not, ensure the best data is used in the model to reassure there is no systematic bias in net flows

  24. UK Statistics Authority assessment of Migration Statistics 5 recommendations including ‘Set out a consistent approach to announcing changes to methods well in advance of the changed statistics and notify users’ ‘Investigate the feasibility of reducing the time-lag between the reference period and publication of IM and publish the findings’

  25. Revisions and user engagement ‘Set out a consistent approach to announcing changes to methods well in advance of the changed statistics and notify users’ • Update revisions policy • Publish minutes from decision making bodies • Engage through a variety of channels, including online

  26. Revisions implementation plan When June 2014 June 2015 June 2016 E = existing methods, R = revised methods

  27. UK Statistics Authority assessment of Migration Statistics ‘Investigate the feasibility of reducing the time-lag between the reference period and publication of IM and publish the findings’

  28. Quality assurance tools Population Quality Unit

  29. Quality information tools planned • Planned for release with mid-2013 Mid-year estimates • Comparator tool • Similar to 2011 Census tool – admin data and some demographic analysis (for example, fertility rates, sex ratios) • Component effect visualisation tool • Experimental • Focussed on last decade initially

  30. Help needed • A group of people prepared to test and comment on tools as they are designed – work likely to be end of April/early May. Contact Neil.Park@ons.gov.uk or fill in section on evaluation form.

  31. For information • Research paper on updated work on plausibility ranges1 in the light of the 2011 Census to be published in Spring 1Original work here http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/method-quality/imps/latest-news/using-administrative-data-to-set-plausibility-ranges/index.html • Further work on statistical confidence intervals for mid-year estimates2 being carried out 2Original work here http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/method-quality/imps/latest-news/uncertainty-in-la-mypes/index.html

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