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Alexander E. MacDonald, Ph.D . Deputy Assistant Administrator for Labs and Cooperative Institutes

Global Change and its Effect on the Arctic. Alexander E. MacDonald, Ph.D . Deputy Assistant Administrator for Labs and Cooperative Institutes & Director, Earth System Research Laboratory National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration. TALK SUMMARY.

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Alexander E. MacDonald, Ph.D . Deputy Assistant Administrator for Labs and Cooperative Institutes

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  1. Global Change and its Effect on the Arctic Alexander E. MacDonald, Ph.D. Deputy Assistant Administrator for Labs and Cooperative Institutes & Director, Earth System Research Laboratory National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration

  2. TALK SUMMARY • Human caused climate change is accelerating. • Arctic: The place of maximum change. • Earth System Science can deliver better predictions. • NOAA and the national climate service.

  3. TALK SUMMARY • Human caused climate change is accelerating. • Arctic: The place of maximum change. • Earth System Science can deliver better predictions. • NOAA and the national climate service.

  4. The World Has Warmed Widespread warming has occurred. Globally averaged, the planet is about 0.75°C warmer than it was in 1860, based upon dozens of high-quality long records using thermometers worldwide, including land and ocean. IPCC WG1 (2007) Slide courtesy of Susan Solomon

  5. La Nina The World Is Still Warm (post-IPCC 2007) Slide courtesy of Susan Solomon www.realclimate.org

  6. What About 2008? Temperature Change Compared to the Average for 1951-1980 • Recently: Relatively cool in the Americas (due to La Nina in Pacific ocean) but warm elsewhere. • 2008: likely to be in the top ten globally warmest years. (NCDC, UKMO, others) NASA GISS analysis Slide courtesy of Susan Solomon

  7. Many Changes Signal A Warming World Rising atmospheric temperature And…… • Atmospheric water vapor increasing • Glaciers retreating • Arctic sea ice extent decreasing • Extreme temperatures increasing • …………. Warming is Unequivocal Rising sea level Reduction in NH snow cover Slide courtesy of Susan Solomon IPCC WG1 (2007)

  8. Human Drivers of Climate Change: Unprecedented • CARBON DIOXIDE • • A critical greenhouse gas • • Dramatic increase in industrial era, ‘forcing’ climate change • • Higher concentration than for more than 600,000 years IPCC WG1 (2007) Slide courtesy of Susan Solomon

  9. Mauna Loa De-Seasonalized Post-Industrial Carbon Dioxide 2 X CO2 Observations (278 ppm pre-industrial subtracted) Exponential Increase: Doubling Time = 32 years 2 X CO2 = 2 x 278 ppm = 556 ppm Year at 556 ppm ~ 2050

  10. TALK SUMMARY • Human caused climate change is accelerating. • Arctic: The place of maximum change. • Earth System Science can deliver better predictions. • NOAA and the national climate service.

  11. Model projection for 2100 Continents Warm 40% more than oceans

  12. IPCC AR4 Projected Patterns of Precipitation Changes 2007 • Summer and Winter

  13. There are large amounts of carbon in the Arctic that could be released in a rapidly warming world.

  14. Permafrost (CCSM) Sept. sea-ice (CCSM) Sept. sea-ice (Observed) One of the latest models of the Arctic predicts the end of the Arctic as we know it during the 2030s. (Holland et al, 2006)

  15. TALK SUMMARY • Human caused climate change is accelerating. • Arctic: The place of maximum change. • Earth System Science can deliver better predictions. • NOAA and the national climate service.

  16. Arctic Research

  17. Earth System Research Laboratory Mission: To observe and understand the Earth system and to develop products through a commitment to research that will advance NOAA’s environmental information and service on global-to-local scales.

  18. LEADEX 1992: Be careful when nature calls!!!

  19. ARCPAC: NOAA airborne science.

  20. Earth System models will allow improved prediction of long term climate.

  21. TALK SUMMARY • Human caused climate change is accelerating. • Arctic: The place of maximum change. • Earth System Science can deliver better predictions. • NOAA and the national climate service.

  22. We are developing a comprehensive & coordinated NOAA Arctic effort. NOAA is working with partners now to develop official long-term sea ice projection products. NOAA is proposed to be the U.S. Government single authoritative source for climate information – National Climate Service. Potential NOAA Role in Arctic Long Term Prediction

  23. Why Sea Ice Products • Observed changes far exceed model projections • Sea ice forecast improvements are essential to better understanding regional and global causes and consequences of Arctic change • Decadal & centennial sea ice forecasts are not currently produced and many users & stakeholders need the information for planning

  24. Arctic sea ice projections Ice information to support many needs / many customers Gov’t & commercial marine transportation safety Marine commerce operations / planning Offshore oil & gas extraction Coastal erosion / coastal zone management Survival of ice-dependent species Emergency & spill response • Fisheries & ecosystem management • Environmental info for regulation & policy • Security & governance • Transportation / seasonal shipping routes • Energy development • Tourism industry

  25. Questions . . . . alexander.e.macdonald@noaa.gov

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