Risk and Safety Management in the Leisure, Events, Tourism and Sports Industries

1. Risk and Safety Management in the Leisure, Events, Tourism and Sports Industries Mark Piekarz, Ian Jenkins and Peter Mills

2. Chapter 7 – Risk Perceptions and Decision Making

3. To explain the limitations of classical rational models of decision making. To explain how perceptions of risk influence decision making. To identify the factors that can influence risk perceptions for practitioners and key stakeholders. To develop an explanatory model which gives an overview of filters which can shape perceptions.

4. Why is it possible for two people to look at the same sport, adventure or travel activity, yet make completely different assessments of the risks? The answer is not a simple one, but is vital for practitioners to ask because; • a) it enables them to understand why customers, clients and other key stakeholders can view risks so differently from themselves; • b) it can help them be aware of their own limitations in risk analysis and assessments, guarding against hubris or excessive over-confidence. These issues are explored in this lecture.

5. THE CLASSIC THEORIES OF THE RATIONAL DECISION MAKER Economic theory of derived utility: • belief that people, when buying goods and services, will act rationally, in the sense that they will choose the goods or service where the most utility (or benefit) is delivered (or derived). This is a form of risk assessment in relation to seeking opportunities for gains, or avoiding losses. This belief in rational behaviour is one extended to management: • a manager can make rational decisions by collecting statistical data, observing patterns, making assessment calculations and then making objective decisions free from emotional bias. ...the only problem is that this is not what happens in practice!

6. THREE REASONS YOU NEED TO LOOK BEYOND THE ‘RATIONAL DECISION MAKER’ Risk should not just concentrate on formal management processes: • This distinction between the objective and the subjective risk (see Chapter 3) can place too much emphasis on the formal risk management process. This fails to recognise that decisions about risk are, in fact, constantly being made, which do not rely on complex probabilistic assessments and form filling. Subjective customer perceptions can be more important than expert practitioner’s objective assessments: • It is easy to find examples of people not making decisions which maximise utility, or are shaped by, an inflated sense of the risk of the activities, even though this may be based on misunderstandings, distortions or simple ignorance. Practitioners should be aware of how their assessment of risk can become distorted or wrong: By appreciating these subjective influences, it can help managers recognise that they are fallible, and help them to have a degree of humility to guard against hubris.

7. WHAT SHAPES RISK PERCEPTIONS? AN OVERVIEW MODEL The model begins with the risk situationor scenario. Next, a number of broad categories are developed to help bunch or theme the many possible influencing filters which may shape perceptions. These are represented as the surrounding circles. These create a complex interactive cocktail of influences shaping judgement and perceptions, which in turn affect the decisions and actions taken by practitioners, customers and other key stakeholders. They can act to both inhibit behaviour or direct it.

8. WHAT INFLUENCES RISK PERCEPTIONS? CATEGORY 1 - HEURISTICS TRAPS Heuristics: making decisions based on personal experiences , which is a crucial part of decision making and not necessarily any less accurate than other forms of decision making (see also Chapter 3). BUT, there can be some heuristic traps which can lead to poor assessments and decisions about risk. These relate to: Inexperience: The capacity for reflection on past experiences can be limited if people are inexperienced. Habituation: Practitioners and clients can become over-familiar with certain risks, which creates a false sense of security, leading to them ‘switching off’, ‘dropping their guard’, or becoming over-confident. Poor learners: Some people may be poor at reflecting and learning from previous incidents or mistakes. Scarcity of opportunity: If something is seen as unique, it may encourage more risk taking, such as environmental conditions (e.g. new snow fall), or market opportunities. Consistency of alignment: People can sometimes become hardwired into a project and find it difficult to change their minds, or may not want to lose face or appear inconsistent. Halo effect: At times people may have a heightened trust and belief in the manager, instructor, coach, guide or other expert in the field. Acceptance: People may not contest issues because of a desire to be accepted in a group. Social facilitation/impacts: People feel emboldened to test or show new skills or abilities to other members.

9. WHAT INFLUENCES RISK PERCEPTIONS? CATEGORY 2 - EMOTIONS For customer and stakeholders: Overcoming challenges and dealing with risks are important ingredients in creating memorable experiences in adventure, sport, leisure and tourism. Memorable experiences are founded on emotional arousal (see theories of flow and stimulation in Chapter 7 for more insights). Arousal takes place in response to external stimuli. Need to manage the perceptions of risk to create memorable experiences. For managers perspective: In management, classic scientific theory argues we should be objective and free of emotions when making decisions. Some argue it is impossible (see Chapter 3 and associated lecture). Others argue that listening to emotions can be important as the text case study example illustrates. Important in entrepreneurial activity. Sometimes we are trained to cope with fear and ‘stay cool’ under pressure, at other times we need to ‘go with our gut instinct’. Extract from Chapter 7, Text Box 7.2 When acting on your ‘gut instinct’ can make for the best decisions. Lehrer (2009) discusses a variety of case studies to illustrate this tension between emotions and rational decision making. One case study stands out. Lieutenant Riley was monitoring radar signals during the Iraq war of 1991. He had been looking at the blips of the Allied planes coming and going for hour after hour, for many days. On one of these monitoring sessions, one radar blip caused a pulse of fear. He could not explain it, because for all intents and purposes one blip looked the same as another. He had very little time to act owing to the speed of the target, so he decided to act on his fear and gave the orders to fire some intercepting missiles which destroyed the target. After a long wait, it turned out not to be an allied aircraft but a hostile silk worm missile, with Riley’s decision saving the lives of many people on the HMS Gloucester

10. WHAT INFLUENCES RISK PERCEPTIONS? CATEGORY 3 - PERSONALITY AND BEHAVIOURAL There are a variety of theories to consider (many adapted from Slovic’s 1999 work). These are: Homeostasis: notion of balance, such as how safety measures and equipment can generate a new set of risks, because people take more risks. Severity of outcome vs probability: (often represented by the shark attack vs coconut injury, which, whilst it has no scientific foundation, conveys a useful aspect of behaviour). Degree of situational control: fear situations we have less control over. Prospect theory: How you frame the risk shapes peoples’ perception and decision making: people love to win, but they hate losing more.

11. WHAT INFLUENCES RISK PERCEPTIONS? CATEGORY 3 (CONTINUED) PROSPECT THEORY EXAMPLE New strain of flu expected to kill 600 people, but two alternative programmes are given in control group A: • Programme A 200 people will be saved. • Programme B 1/3 probability that 600 will be saved, and a 2/3 probability that no one will be saved.  In control group B they are given the scenarios framed as thus:  • Program C 400 people will die. • Programme 1/3 probability that no one will die, but a 2/3 chance that 600 people will die. What this illustrates is that how we are presented with a problem affects the extent to which we are risk averse or risk seeking.

12. WHAT INFLUENCES RISK PERCEPTIONS? CATEGORY 4- STAKE What is invested in terms of money, reputation, equipment and emotional commitment. The bigger the stake or commitment, the harder it can be to change decisions as projects develop. Stake should be considered in relative terms, not absolute.

13. WHAT INFLUENCES RISK PERCEPTIONS? CATEGORY 5 - SOCIAL AND MEDIA AMPLIFICATION Media amplify and transform peoples fear of risks by the language used, such as how rare events can be turned into normal risk and their dangers exaggerated by the use of such terms as ‘plague’, ‘epidemic’ and ‘syndrome’ for health related stories, and the idea that people are ‘at risk’ (Furedi, 2002). Particularly relevant in adventure, sport and tourism incidents.

14. WHAT INFLUENCES RISK PERCEPTIONS? CATEGORY 5 (CONTINUED) – EXAMPLE OF A SOCIAL CULTURAL THEORY Douglas and Wildavsky (1983) developed their cultural theory about risk based on two key dimensions called group/grid model. Different cultural groupings may view risk differently as the table illustrates. Groups are divided up using two key dimensions: the sense of ‘group’ and the sense people feel free or constrained by society, labelled as ‘grid’. By relating these two dimensions, it is possible to identify four key groups (Fatalist, Hierarchy, Individualist, Egalitarian).

15. CONTEXTUALISATION AND APPLICATION TO THE DIFFERENT SECTORS At the end of the chapter in the book, a variety of examples are given to illustrate how these concepts can be applied to specific industry sector examples. You are encouraged to select the most relevant sector examples related to your teaching and learning needs.

16. CONCLUSION Risk is a social construction (see Chapter 3) where it can be difficult to be truly objective. Individuals, who will be subject to all sorts of biases and views which influence what they identify as hazards and risks and the assessment values attached. Consider the difference between your risk perception and customers. Consider what factors may mean you have made some mistakes in your analysis, assessments and controls.

17. REFERENCES Douglas and Wildavsky (1983) Risk and Culture: An essay on the selection of technological and environmental dangers, California Press, California. Furedi, F. (2002), Culture of Fear, Continuum, London. Lehrer, J (2009) The Decisive Moment, Canongate, Edinburgh. Slovic, P. (1991) Beyond Numbers: a broader perspective on risk perception and risk communication. In Mayo, D. and Hollander, R. (Eds), Acceptable Evidence: Science and values in risk management, Oxford University Press, Oxford.

18. DISCUSSION Discuss how much new technologies and safety equipment actually reduce risk, or simply increase the level of risk taking? Are people in the developed world becoming more or less risk averse? What is the evidence to support both sides of the argument? Do a search of risk stories in the media, relating to the different industry sectors, and reflect on how they amplify the risks and contribute to a culture of fear.

19. Thank You Name:Dr Mark Piekarz Email: m.piekarz@worc.ac.uk