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How to use scenarios for decision-making support

How to use scenarios for decision-making support. Volkery/Ribeiro, 2009. … across the policy cycle. More indirect forms. More direct forms. How to use scenarios for decision-making support. Sensitivity / risk assessment

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How to use scenarios for decision-making support

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  1. How to use scenarios for decision-making support Volkery/Ribeiro, 2009

  2. … across the policy cycle More indirect forms More direct forms

  3. How to use scenarios for decision-making support • Sensitivity / risk assessment • uses a specific decision, where the need for decision-making is known • series of descriptive steps -> ”go”/ ”no-go” • clear decision focus needed – easier to implement in the corporate world • Strategy evaluation • similar, but for a whole strategy/policy package

  4. How to use scenarios for decision-making support • Strategy planning (with a planning focus) • select one of your scenarios as the planning focus scenario • develop a strategy that performs well in this scenario • test robustness in other scenarios • very conventional, with limitations • Strategy planning (without a planning focus) • identify maximum number of feasible options across all scenarios • compare across scenarios to find the one which is most robust, i.e. Perform reasonably well in any of the scenarios, and works best in comparison to all other options being considered (qualifiers Are we being effective?

  5. BLOSSOM project BLOSSOM = Bridging LOng-term Scenario and Strategy analysis – Organisation and Methods • Take stock of existing practice • Analyse institutional approaches • Review methodological approaches • Foster information exchange and learning 1st phase run in 2008 together with RAND Europe 2nd phase run in 2009 together with Collingwood Planning / Milieu

  6. oftentimes met not routinely attained 7 standards of utilising knowledge from Knott & Wildavsky (1980) • Reception • Cognition • Reference • Effort • Adoption • Implementation • Impact Why NOT?

  7. 1st phase - 2008 • Questions • How are scenarios used in policy-making? • What are main impacts? • What are effectiveness conditions? • What are institutional arragements? • Activities: • Review of available literature • Mapping the institutional landscape of foresight/scenario organisations • Scenario practitioners workshop

  8. Review of evaluative scenario literature Literature review: 54 journal or book chapters match our criteria of ”evaluative scenario literature” Assessment of typologies Assessment of what types of scenarios work in different contexts Assessment of impacts of scenarios on political decision-making processes Assessment of institutional arrangements that increase the effectiveness of scenarios use Assessment of approaches to evaluate the robustness of strategies over multiple scenarios

  9. Review of evaluative scenario literature • Dominant mode is support to scientific exploration, with special emphasis on further modelling and analysis. Framing of public debates occurs less often • Little to less is documented regarding impacts on policy making. Many decision-making processes that could benefit from scenarios do not seem to really use them; conversely many scenario studies treat the policy dimension in a superficial way. • Activies seem to be geared towards better understanding and awareness raising; few examples of ”strategic wind-tunelling” documented. Mostly, benefits relate to individual learning, not organsiational performance improvement.

  10. Government funded or contribution based? Virtual network or physical location? Centralised or decentralised? Temporary or permanent? Formalised inputs or space for discussion? In-built or outsourced expertise? Expert-led or stakeholder-driven? Issue-based network or think tank with own agenda? Interdep. steering groups or not? How to proceed with embedding a long-term perspective into policy-making?

  11. More to find here • EEA, 2009. Looking back on looking forward: A review of the evaluative scenario literature. EEA Technical Report 3/2009. • Volkery, A.; Ribeiro, T., 2009. Scenario planning in public policy. Understanding use, impacts and the role of institutional context factors. Technological Forecasting and Social Change (forthcoming, special issue)

  12. 2nd phase • EEA member country studies • Looking in greater detail at enabling conditions, institutional context and good practice • How countries embed and institutionalise a long-term environmental future analysis perspective into their strategic planning and decision-making? • What outcomes can be observed? • What lessons can be learnt in terms of what works and what doesn’t?

  13. 2nd phase • Countries: UK, FI, SW, NL, FR, ES, SL, PL • 28 expert interviews conducted with officials in environmental ministries, agencies and other relevant organisations • Draft country studies available – all have been reviewed by interviewees • Comparative analysis underway • Differences and commonalities - matrix for ”hard” and ”soft” tools • Diffusion curves of institutional innovations • Good practice cases

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