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Solar Cycle 23 and Early Predictions for Solar Cycle 24

Solar Cycle 23 and Early Predictions for Solar Cycle 24. Carl Luetzelschwab K9LA. Cycle 23. Maximum smoothed sunspot number of 121 in early 2000. Secondary peak in late 2001 Great 6m F2 DX!. we are here. solar minimum. Minimum expected in late 2006 / early 2007.

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Solar Cycle 23 and Early Predictions for Solar Cycle 24

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  1. Solar Cycle 23 and Early Predictions for Solar Cycle 24 Carl Luetzelschwab K9LA Ham Fair 2005 - K9LA

  2. Cycle 23 • Maximum smoothed sunspot number of 121 in early 2000 • Secondary peak in late 2001 • Great 6m F2 DX! we are here solar minimum • Minimum expected in late 2006 / early 2007 • We’re about a year and a half from solar minimum Ham Fair 2005 - K9LA

  3. The High Bands: 10m, 12m, 15m • At solar minimum, F2 openings on 15m to NA and EU will be of short duration • If 15m is open, check 12m winter month • At solar minimum, no openings on 10m predicted to NA and EU winter month data from ARRL Antenna Book CD Ham Fair 2005 - K9LA

  4. 17m – A Good Place for a Band predictions for JA to indicated area (December around solar minimum) G 0700-0800 UTC (low probability) I 0600-0830 UTC W2 no opening WØ 2130-2200 UTC (low probability) W6 2130-0030 UTC PY 2200-0700 UTC LU 2030-0900 UTC HZ 0300-0900 UTC VK4 2130-1530 UTC CN 0730-0800 UTC (low probability) ZS6 2230-1030 UTC • Prior to the WARC band allocations, 20m was the workhorse band for long haul DXing around solar minimum • 17m has the long haul characteristics of 15m, but the MUF need not be as high • Get on 17m! Working Peter I on 17m 3Y0X Feb 2006 2100-0930 UTC data from W6ELProp Ham Fair 2005 - K9LA

  5. 80m and 160m • Geomagnetic field activity is quietest at and a couple years after solar minimum quietest quietest • Most severe impact is to paths that go to high latitudes (those through and near the auroral oval) • JA to WØ • JA to W1, W2, W3 data from K9LA Ham Fair 2005 - K9LA

  6. 30m and 40m • Propagation on 160m and 80m is dependent on absorption • Propagation on 20m, 17m, 15m, 12m, and 10m is dependent on MUF (maximum usable frequency) • 30m and 40m are transition bands – not as dependent on absorption and not as dependent on MUF • Of all the bands, they probably change the least over a solar cycle Ham Fair 2005 - K9LA

  7. Things To Do At Solar Minimum • Watch for north-south paths on the higher bands • Monitor the Sun for unusual sunspot activity that could help the higher bands • www.dxlc.com/solar, sec.noaa.gov, spaceweather.com, etc • Participate in contests • www.ncjweb.com/contestcal.php • Get on the low bands Ham Fair 2005 - K9LA

  8. All Recorded Solar Cycles • Data is cyclic in nature our lifetime • We’ve lived through the highest recorded solar cycles • It sure looks like we’re headed for an extended period of low solar cycles Ham Fair 2005 - K9LA

  9. Cycle 24 Prediction • As Cycle 23 winds down, we’re seeing more and more predictions from the scientific community • Most predict that Cycle 24 will be no greater than Cycle 23 • Some are even predicting a maximum smoothed sunspot number of around 75 • Haven’t seen anything that low since Cycle 16 (1923 – 1933) from Schatten Ham Fair 2005 - K9LA

  10. Summary • About a year and a half from solar minimum • Stay active on the higher bands • Watch for sporadic E and north-south F2 propagation • Monitor solar activity for unusual sunspot activity • Participate in contests • Get your low band station ready • 2006, 2007, and 2008 should be good years Ham Fair 2005 - K9LA

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