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Status of T2K Sensitivity Studies

Status of T2K Sensitivity Studies. Jessica Dunmore UCI 10 November 2005. Summary from Oct 6. Able to reproduce Mine’s official result. But, I am using a different definition of the c 2 CL My 90% CL comes from a c 2 distribution , while official CL is from a normal distribution .

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Status of T2K Sensitivity Studies

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  1. Status of T2K Sensitivity Studies Jessica Dunmore UCI 10 November 2005

  2. Summary from Oct 6 • Able to reproduce Mine’s official result. • But, I am using a different definition of the c2 CL • My 90% CL comes from a c2 distribution, while official CL is from a normal distribution. • Mine: dc2=1.64 at 90%CL (1dof) • Jess: dc2=2.71 at 90%CL (1dof)

  3. Contents • Now using a Poisson c2. • Sensitivity using Poisson statistics and all systematic uncertainties • Mars hadronic model added to flux code • Treatment of Flux Uncertainty

  4. From last time…. • From 2-flavor oscillations to 3-flavor (0.35-0.85 GeV). • Use all bins up to 2 GeV (normal c2 calculation). • All bins, Poisson c2 calculation. • Note: this is still the situation for no systematics. 3s CL 90% CL

  5. Previous sensitivity curve 90% CL • Includes all systematic uncertainties. • Assumes disappearance parameters are known. • Uses normal chisquare calculation (with pulls). • No statistical fluctuation included.

  6. Addition of statistical fluctuations 90% CL • Assumes disappearance parameters are known. • Uses Poissonc2(with pulls). • Not sure why adding fluctuations improves sensitivity • Calculating something incorrectly?

  7. Latest sensitivity curve 90% CL • Includes all systematic uncertainties. • But efficiency syst. uncert. Is half what it was on previous slide. • Assumes disappearance parameters are known. • Uses Poisson chisquare. • Statistical fluctuation included.

  8. Hadronic Models C. Simon

  9. Improvements to Flux Systematic Uncertainty Treatment • Previously: • varied the flux in each energy bin (every 50 MeV) • Variations not correlated • Proposal • Take some fraction of gcalor, fluka, mars fluxes: Flux = afgcalor+bffluka+gfmars, where a+b+g=1 • A prediction is made using Flux = 1/3fgcalor+1/3ffluka+1/3fmars • The number of systematic terms is reduced to 2 (from up to 40!) for each flux (nm and ne). • Also 1 systematic included for overall flux.

  10. Status • New method has been implemented, but has not yet been tested using near detectors. • Now flux systematic is correlated between bins.

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