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Technology Assessment

Technology Assessment. Enterprise Excellence Series. Outline. Management of Technology Sociotechnical Change Technology Planning Technology Forecasting Managing Forecasting Methods and Issues Lifecycles Monitoring Tools for Trending Extrapolating Technological Trends Expert Opinion.

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Technology Assessment

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  1. Technology Assessment Enterprise Excellence Series

  2. Outline • Management of Technology • Sociotechnical Change • Technology Planning • Technology Forecasting • Managing Forecasting • Methods and Issues • Lifecycles • Monitoring • Tools for Trending • Extrapolating Technological Trends • Expert Opinion

  3. Result of Technology’s Increasing Significance • Technology assessment • originally driven by concern regarding the negative effects of technology on the environment and society. • now much more encompassing • Technology forecasting • assessment requires anticipation, therefore a need for technology forecasting.

  4. Product Life Cycle Withdrawn from market Maximum Profit Maximum Sales Volume Profit Revenue (x100,000) Sales Revenue (x1,000,000) 4 Maturity Innovation Growth 4 Decline Profit 3 3 2 2 Sales Volume 1 1 Commercial launch Years from Launch

  5. Impact/Technology Assessment • It is the systematic study of the effects on society, that may occur when a technology is introduced, extended, or modified, with emphasis on the impacts that are unintended, indirect, or delayed. • (Joseph Coates, 1976) • It should be viewed by technology managers as professional obligation and social responsibility • It’s results form the “big picture” concerns that should shape the context of technological planning

  6. Forecasting-Technology Management Relationship • Forecasting is intended to bring information to the technology management process • Predicts possible technological changes that might affect corporate goals • Provides useful information to decision makers • The shape and format of forecasting are determined by • Targeted audience (nation, organization, business unit, group of units…) • Audience goals

  7. Stages of Technological Innovation • Stage 3: Verification • laboratory experiment that confirms the validity of the proposed theory or design concept • Stage 4: Laboratory Demonstration • first primitive model of the technology concept in a useful form • Stage 5: Field Trial • full-scale approach or field trial that ultimately becomes the prototype or pilot-plant

  8. Competitive Technology Lifecycle Critical Dimension Traditional technology Emergent technology Time Ex: Vacuum tubes v. transistors : Sail v. steamships

  9. Fisher-Pry Model • Substitution model • Symmetrical around the 50% penetration point • y(t) = 1/(1 + e-b(t-a)) • y(t) = fraction of the potential market served by the new technology at time t • a = the time the new technology reaches 50% of the total market • b = rate of adoption

  10. Technological Description/Foresight • Technology description is a subset of technology foresight • Technology foresight involves predicting and preparing for the opportunities and challenges that new technologies offer • Noted authors Dr. van Wyk & Dr. Jonathan Litton

  11. Choosing Experts Opinion Capture Technique Six factors are to consider in choosing a technique to capture experts opinion (Nelms and Porter, 1985): • Logistics: resources largely determine the method • Feedback: minimizing delay between successive feedback is desirable • Communication medium: is a function of access to experts, resources, and time

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