Presentation at the LMU Bellarmine Forum, November 7, 2005 Dr. Michael Mills Psychology Department Loyola Marymount Uni

1. Why a Sense of Global Communityis Needed to Survive the Coming World-wide Energy Crisis Peak oil, ecological carrying capacity, and the perilous phase transition to renewable energy sources. Presentation at the LMU Bellarmine Forum, November 7, 2005 Dr. Michael Mills Psychology Department Loyola Marymount University

2. Some bad news, and some good news,aboutourfuture… • The bad news (according to ecologists and population biologists): • Thomas Malthus: • The population of a species increases geometrically • But the carrying capacity of the environment is finite, • Populations fluctuate between geometic growth and sudden die-offs • Our species may be no exception. • Carrying capacity of earth for humans is maybe 1 - 2 billion people (?) • And we are already have over 6 billion people… • The good news (according to “cornucopian technologists”): • Ray Kurzweil: • Scientific knowledge, like populations, grows geometrically too… • May allow us solve problems of carrying capacity, cure disease and aging, • Technology will help us overcome population overshoot and collapse. • The outcome of the Malthusian / Kurzwilian “grudge match:” • More than just an academic exercise • One of the two scenarios will likely occur • within your generation’s (college students’) lifetime.

3. Overview of Presentation • Part 1: The Coming Worldwide Energy Crisis • The world is running out of cheap oil and other fossil fuels at a time when demand is increasing. • Part A: Malthusian Perspective: Possible worldwide economic problems, societal collapses, wars, and even population die-offs. • Part B: Kurzweilian Perspective: Technology will come to the rescue • Part 2: Why a Sense of Global Communityis Needed to Survive the Coming World-wide Energy Crisis • Declining energy results in what game theorists call a “Negative-Sum Game” • This condition creates greater risks for social conflict and war. • How can people of the world cooperate to survive the energy crisis?

4. Part 1: The Coming Energy Crisis • Part A: The Malthusian Perspective

5. We have become “Oilcoholics.” • “Oil Storm” movie trailer: • FX Channel movie: “Oil Storm” (June, 2005). • Exemplifies our dangerous dependence on oil • What would happen if our access to oil was interrupted? • http://www.fxnetworks.com/shows/originals/oilstorm/main.html

6. “Oil Storm” movie trailer:

7. Thomas MalthusAn Essay on the Principle of Population • "It is an obvious truth, which has been taken notice of by many writers,  that population must always be kept down to the level of the means of subsistence; but no writer that the Author recollects has  inquired particularly into the means by which this level is effected..."  -- Thomas Malthus, 1798 An Essay on the Principle of Population • http://www.ac.wwu.edu/~stephan/malthus/malthus.0.html

8. Population in a Petri dish(from: http://321energy.com/editorials/petch/petch070505.html)

9. Geometric rates of increase in a finite world… Source: Dr. Albert Bartletthttp://www.hawaii.gov/dbedt/ert/symposium/bartlett/bartlett.html

10. “The Introduction, Increase and Crash of Reindeer on St. Matthew Island”, by David Klein • 20 reindeer were introduced to St. Matthew Island in 1944 • Lots to eat, no predators • Population exploded • By 1963, the density of the reindeer on the island had reached 47 per square mile • They ate all the lichens (their food) on the island • In 1963, there was a die-off – about 6,000 reindeer starved to death • http://dieoff.org/page80.htm

11. “The Introduction, Increase and Crash of Humans on Easter Island…” • A few humans arrived about 400 A.D. • Population exploded to as many as 20,000 • They cut down trees to move the stone statues • No trees = no boats, no top soil • About 1700 AD – die off of up to 18,000 people due to starvation and cannibalism. • “Easter Island is Earth writ small” – Jared Diamond

12. Imagine the world as a petri dish

13. “The Introduction, Increase and Crash of Humans on Earth Island…” • The essential energy resource to support industrial/technological civilization: oil • Sobering Fact: There is no energy-equivalent substitute for oil, • in terms of its advantages of energy density, transportability, range, safety and cost. • Also, oil is used to make fertilizer to grow food, and in many everyday products (plastics, etc.) • Oil has unique advantages for transportation: • Imagine trying to fly an airplane on a non-oil power source: Wood? Coal? Electricity? Nuclear? Hydrogen? • Problem: like trees on Easter Island, oil is a finite resource. And, we are gradually running out…

14. Peak Oil Discoverer M. King Hubbert 1903-1989 • Shell Oil Geologist / Petroleum Scientist • Highly qualified and intellectually courageous • In 1954 he predicted that U.S. oil would peak about 1970 • Universally criticized at the time • After 1970 he became highly respected • In 1984 Hubbert predicted world peak oil in the early 2000s

15. PEAK OIL: When you plot the production of an aggregate of oil fields over time you get roughly a bell curve Top of the curve Mid point 1st half 2nd half

16. USA Oil Peaked in 1970http://www.oilcrisis.com/de/lecture.html

17. Peaking Oil and Gas Iran peaked: 1974 Russia peaked: 1987 Saudi Arabia peak – 2005? • In 2005 natural “gas production has peaked in North America," -- Exxon Chief Executive Lee Raymond (Reuters, June 21, 2005)

20. Jean Laherr`ere, Estimates of Oil Reserves, paper presented at the EMF/IEA/IEW meeting in Laxenburg, Austria, June 19, 2001.http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/ECS/IEW2001/pdffiles/Papers/Laherrere-long.pdf

21. Crude oil production by the world's largest private oil companies is in decline as of first half of 2005.

23. How much time do we have left?

24. Another related problem:Oil Demand-Production Cross-Over • Oil demand now exceeds supply. • New sources of increased oil demand: China and India • Source: http://money.cnn.com/2005/08/12/markets/oil.reut/index.htm

25. Oil demand expected to double in 25 years, while oil reserves will be plummeting. Demand for oil is increasing, but oil production is decreasing. The red portion represents demand short fall. Result: oil prices go through the roof starting in 2005… DOCUMENTARY "THE END OF SUBURBIA" SHOWING IN OTTAWA Exxon-Mobil Report, Oct. 2004

26. If this is such a serious problem, why haven’t we heard about it? • Time horizons: • Business: Annual Profits • Government: Next election (4 – 6 years) • Media: Dramatic headlines of current events • People in general: • in ancestral environment, life span about 35 years -- discount future events over current events • Denial? • Nothing like this has ever happened before • Or, if it has (1970s oil shocks), problem quickly reversed • Jiminy Cricket syndrome – technology to the rescue! • Loss Aversion – invested in current infrastructure • Dislike the idea of change, especially, reducing consumption.

27. But… the mass media (both fiction and non-fiction) is starting to catch on… • "How to Kick the Oil Habit" • Time Magazine, Oct. 23, 2005 • "If this explosion of (renewable energy) innovation has a problem, however, it may be that the developments are coming too late to allow a smooth transition to the postpetroleum era."

28. Chevron TV ad.http://www.chevron.com/about/advertising/

29. Chevron TV ad.

30. Exxon Energy VideoSource:http://exxonmobil.com/corporate/Campaign/Campaign_energychallenge_home.asp

31. Video Clip (fiction): • “Syrinia” movie trailer: • Those who control oil, control the world. • Increasing international conflict (“resource wars”) over the remaining, dwindling oil supplies. • To be released in December, 2005. • http://movies.yahoo.com/feature/syrianaqt.html

32. Non-Fiction • Article: “Outcome Grim at Oil War Game -- Former Officials Fail to Prevent Recession in Mock Energy Crisis” • By John Mintz, Washington Post Staff WriterFriday, June 24, 2005; Page A19 • “The United States would be all but powerless to protect the American economy in the face of a catastrophic disruption of oil markets, high-level participants in a war game concluded yesterday.”

33. Rising gas prices (hypothetical): 2005: $2.60/gallon 2006: $3.25/gallon? 2007: $4.10/gallon? 2008: $5.95/gallon? 2009: $11.54/gallon? 2010: $16.82/gallon? 2015: $??? Declining oil production & rising demand = ever rising gas prices

34. Peak Oil and Economic Effectshttp://www.theoildrum.com/story/2005/8/24/161535/296#comments

35. Recent Quotes: • "We're all going to have to diversify away from hydrocarbons over time.” -- President George W. Bush, April 19, 2005 • “Doing nothing or doing too little too late will lead to a global economic and geopolitical tsunami with potentially devastating ramifications.” -- U.S. Congressman Roscoe Bartlet. (2005) • "Peaking (oil) will be catastrophic... We are about to drive the car over the cliff and say, `Oh my God, What have we done?’” -- Robert L. Hirsch, US Dept. of Energy consultant, 2005. • “After you drive a car off a cliff, it’s too late to hit the brakes. In effect, we have gone over the edge of the cliff.” -- Kenneth Deffeyes, author “Beyond Oil”

36. Recent Quotes: • (Peak oil) “…is one of the biggest social and political challenges for this century.” • Robert K. Kaufmann, Professor, Center for Energy & Environmental Studies, Boston University. (2005) • “We’ve embarked on the beginning of the last days of the age of oil.” • Mike Bowlin, Chairman and CEO, ARCO, 1999 and Chairman, American Petroleum Institute (2005) • “My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet airplane. His son will ride a camel.” --Saudi adage • “Whether … (a transition to renewable energy) will come in time to avoid an energy crunch depends in part on how high a priority we give energy research and development.” • Richard A. Kerr and Robert F. Service, Science, Vol 309, Issue 5731, 101 , 1 July 2005

37. Have Saudi’s Overstated their Oil Reserves? • Investment banker Matthew Simmons. • Highlights many discrepancies between Saudi Arabia's actual production potential and its seemingly extravagant resource claims. • May in fact be peaking soon.

38. What might we expect in near future? • Ever rising gasoline prices. • Fewer recreational “road trips.” • More use of trains. • Airline travel ever more expensive. • Commuting from the suburbs ever more expensive. • Electricity, gas, heating oil, become ever more expensive. • Rising inflation – everything will cost more (due to rising shipping and production costs). • Economic recessions. • International conflict over oil resources.

39. Worst case future scenarios: Economic recessions. We might see a return of the Great Depression. Maybe a “Malthusian catastrophe” (e.g., population die-off).

40. Wonder what life would be like without cheap oil? • We already have examples: North Korea and Cuba. • LA Times Article: • "GLIMPSES OF A HERMIT NATION A decade after a massive famine, North Koreans are still struggling. In Chongjin, deprivation spurs change.” By Barbara Demick, LA Times Staff Writer, July 3, 2005. • “…outsiders know relatively little about its people or the miseries they have endured since a famine in the mid-1990s wiped out an estimated 2 million people.”

42. “HAVANA — Summer’s searing temperatures getting you down? Just be glad you don’t live in Cuba where daily blackouts make it about impossible to beat this year’s record heat.” “At first, the blackouts were tolerable, four hours twice a week. But by mid-month they had grown to daily six-hour ordeals.” “Still, she considers herself lucky. ‘We live on the top floor apartment so we get to use the roof to sleep.” People’s biggest complaint has to do with the nighttime blackouts. It’s hard to sleep without the use of an air conditioner or fan.’” Cuba at Night MSNBC.com article:“Think it's hot? Be glad you're not in Cuba - Daily blackouts putting nation in a bad mood.”July 12, 2005http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8500543/print/1/displaymode/1098/

43. Cuba’s vs. N. Korea Oil Crisis:Why was Cuba able to avoid famine? • Cuba had a similar oil crisis when the Soviet Union collapsed, but, unlike North Korea, they were able to avoid famine. • Why? How?

44. Historical Energy Sources:Energy Phase Transitions • Wood, which was replaced by • Coal, in the 1800s, which was replaced by • Oil, in the 1900s, which must be replaced by a renewable energy source… • _________ ? in the 2000s (?) • Solar? • Wind? • Nuclear Fusion (hot or cold)? (Current nuclear fission is finite and non-renewable)

46. Energy Phase Transitions • Each previous “energy phase transition”wood -> coal -> oil was to a more dense energy source. • PROBLEMS WE FACE NOW • Energy Density: All clean, renewable energy sources are far less dense • Demand for wood and coal could be met when they were needed. • But demand for oil will rise inexorably, as production inexorably decreases. Demand cannot be met.

47. Perilous Energy Phase Transition Periodto renewable energy sources • Do we have enough time? • Or, is it already too late? • Transition period is very risky. • Huge infrastructure changes / investments • It takes time to transition smoothly – we may not have started soon enough. • Costs of infrastructure change will be enormous • We need to start immediately.

49. The Kurzweilian Perspective:Scientific technology to the rescue! • Part B: • Ray Kurzweil: • Technological knowledge will increase geometrically • Exponential explosion of scientific knowledge will allow us solve problems of carrying capacity, find unlimited energy sources (e.g., fusion), cure disease and aging, and to become immortal.