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The EC scientific support to energy security

The EC scientific support to energy security. Marcelo Masera Head of Unit "Energy Security" Institute for Energy and Transport Joint Research Centre. ENERGY SECURITY. SMART ELECTRICITY SYSTEMS & INTER-OPERABILITY. SECURITY OF SUPPLY. Data. Models & Simulation. Assessment. Experiments.

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The EC scientific support to energy security

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  1. The EC scientific support to energy security Marcelo Masera Head of Unit "Energy Security" Institute for Energy and Transport Joint Research Centre

  2. ENERGY SECURITY SMART ELECTRICITY SYSTEMS & INTER-OPERABILITY SECURITY OF SUPPLY

  3. Data Models & Simulation Assessment Experiments Represent reality Study the techno- economic systems Appraise the impacts (risk, economic) European dimension Analyse key technologies

  4. SMART ELECTRICITY SYSTEMS & INTER-OPERABILITY International (ANL) Industry (ENTSOE, EURELECTRIC) R&D Security: technical, economic, social and political factors EU Grid simulator Real-time simulator Interoperability lab Smart Grids Projects in EU Cost benefit analysis of Smart Meters and Smart Grids

  5. smart grid inventory • 2012 JRC Inventory of Smart Grids in Europe: • 281 Smart Grid projects in EU27 • € 1.8 billion overall investment By far the most investment comes from organisations in EU15 countries. EU12 countries2 are lagging behind, with consistently low investment over the years.

  6. Cost-Benefit Analysis of smart Grid projects KPIs Merit Deployment (contribution to policy goals) Costs Societal Cost-Benefit Analysis Smart Grid project overall assessment Externalities characterisation Benefits Effects Economic appraisal(monetised impacts) Qualitative analysis(non-monetised impacts)

  7. Lab Functions and capabilities SMART GRID SIMULATION CENTRE

  8. SECURITY OF SUPPLY Offshore safety (Directive June 2013) Unconventional gas/oil resources Shale gas Techno-economic study (DG ENV/ENER/CLIMA initiative) Models and Simulation of Gas Networks Disruptions scenarios (Regulation 994/2010)

  9. Offshore oil & gas most important European indigenous source of HC • 11% oil; 26% gas needs • EU + Norway: > 30% of demand • Global trend • deep water offshore oil production from 2% (2001) to 12% (2015) • Demanding conditions • Deeper waters, frontier conditions (HP/HT) harsh / sensitive environments • Opportunity for innovative production technologies & systems OFFSHORE SAFETY

  10. UNCONVENTIONAL HYDROCARBONS Contents Review of Regional and Global Resource Estimates Review of Technologies Land and Market Access Impact on the European and the Global Energy Systems Methodology Assess Evidence - evidence based policy and practice Energy Modelling Contents Technological Review Advantages & disadvantages Methodology Literature review Contact with technology developers

  11. European gas transmission network modelling tools JRC-GNTHydraulic country modelSteady statePlatform: SynerGEEStatus: 15 EU countries Hydraulic network modelSteady & transient statesPlatform: MATLABStatus: development GEMFLOWMass balance modelPlatform: MATLABStatus: all EU countries Vulnerability probabilistic modelPlatform: MATLABStatus: development 40 % 13-15 % 22-25 % 0-50 % Global view - One node per country - Supply/demand balance check - One day time step GAS INFRASTRUCTURE Detailed network view - Disruption consequence analysis - Pressure calculations- GIS visualisation Detailed network view - Dynamic simulation- Pressure calculations- Disruption analysis Detailed network view - Probabilistic disruption analysis- Identification of critical links - Network development effectiveness analysis 50-67 % 25-40 % System data: GIS network topology, physical capacity, flows, reversibility, failure ratesSystem knowledge: hazards, failure modes, failure propagation, consequence evaluationMarket data: contractual capacity, price/demand elasticity, competition effects

  12. Discussed and proposed during conference “Energy Security, Outlook and Perspectives in the Baltic Sea Region”held in Vilnius, 15-16 November 2012 Participants leading researchers, system operators, government representatives, regulators and analysts Baltic Energy security research platForm

  13. Developments: Preliminary meeting of representatives of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia in April 2013 Expected to be officially launched during the Lithuania‘s Presidency of the European Union Progress in discussions towards political commitment and academic-research representation from Baltic Region countries Baltic Energy security research platForm /2

  14. Thank you foryour attention! ENERGY SECURITY SMART ELECTRICITY SYSTEMS & INTER-OPERABILITY SECURITY OF SUPPLY

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