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Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO

Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO. Klaus Niemeyer. Success. Victory. Operations Analysis. Comparison. Model Application. Calculation. (Simulation). Assessment. Model. Measurements. Mathematics, Physics,. Ground. Perception of Reality. ANCIENT. TODAY.

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Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO

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  1. Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO Klaus Niemeyer

  2. Success Victory Operations Analysis Comparison Model Application Calculation (Simulation) Assessment Model Measurements Mathematics, Physics, ... Ground Perception of Reality ANCIENT TODAY Sun Tzu and Scientific Support Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO

  3. Definition of Operations Research "OR is a "OR is a scientific scientific method of providing executive method of providing executive administrators with a administrators with a quantitative basis for decisions decisions regarding the regarding the operations operations under their under their control." control." Morse, Kimball 1950 Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO

  4. Evolution of Modelling and Simulation Noise Reality Analyses Research Core Model Reduction of Complexity Prototyping Adding Complexity Construct Engineering Testing Training Construct Noise Syntheses Construct Noise Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO

  5. The Operations Analysis Problem For given objectives: Defense Planning What is the best composition, and: What is the best employment x xxx of forces in order to optimize Operational Planning III xx resources? "To win without fighting is best." SunTzu Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO

  6. OA in NATO • NATO(NC3A, Military HQ, (RTO),..) • USA (Rand, IDA, …) • UK • Germany • France • Canada • The Netherlands • Norway • Denmark • Turkey • …. Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO

  7. Joint Analysis Problem Solution Tools Options Scientists MilitaryPlanners Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO

  8. Defense Planning Operational Planning INTELLIGENCE FORCEIDENTIFICATION REDEPLOYMENT DEFENSE STRUCTURE DEPLOYMENT CONTINGENCY PLANNING ENGAGEMENT PREPARATION IN THEATRE INFRASTRUCTURE SUSTAINMENT PREPARATION FORCE PREPARATION TRAINING OPERATION PEACE TRANSITION Wide Scope of Processes Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO

  9. Decision Cycle Mission Objective Analysis of Objective Perception Force Comparison Situation Analyses Anticipation Planning “What, if’” Own Forces Opponent Forces -Capability? -Intention? Development of Options Environment -Terrain -Weather -Population Assessment of Options Decision Planning Status Execution Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO

  10. Present Issues • Operational Support • Training: CAX • Capability Requirements • Concept Development & Experimentation • Net Enabled Capabilities- C4ISR Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO

  11. Logical Build up of Objectives Analyses Methodology Centre of Excellence Scientific Basis in Bulgaria End 1 2 Project: Start Year

  12. Criteria of Success • 1.Objective: Centre of Excellence (25%) • Accepted papers in international magazins • Hired scientists in NC3A • 2.Objective: Methodology (25%) • Participants in OR conferences • RTO-SAS/NMSG participation • 3.Objective: Analyses (50%) • Tasking organisations in Bulgaria • Projects for NC3A Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO

  13. TACOM Exercise General Structure Control/Leadership Training/Teaching Generation of Knowledge Participants Environment Simulation (Script) Dialogue Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO

  14. TACOM: Standard Software Script ( Preparation) MS-Word MS-Outlook (Macros) Communication, Events, Situation Documentation (Exercise) Powersim (Simulation) MS-Excel Map Objects/ArcView (Situation) MS-Access MS-Visual Basic (Applications) MS-Data Access Objects Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO

  15. TACOM software architecture Participants Message Handling System Scenario Command&Control Static Messages Script Dynamic Display System Simulation Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO

  16. Defense Requirements Review (Plan 2015) Political Guidance Security Environment Planning Situations / Scenarios Risk Constraints Assessment Capability Requirements Force Structure Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO

  17. Operations oriented Staff rotation High responsibility High visibility Government Competition Profit oriented Effective-productive High salaries Attractive Attributes Military: Science: Commercial: • Scientific standards • Verification/Falsification • Transparency • Think tank • Not for profit • Low salaries • Neutral • Continuity Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO

  18. Fundamental Principles • Neutrality („non for profit“, no mercantile accomplisments) • Continuity (Corporate knowledge, long term employees, reputation) • Flexibility (Quick response, no bureaucratic constraints) • Scientific State of Art (Link to scientific and industrial communities) • Customer Relationship (High integration, co-operation, synergies) • Management (Planning, Controlling, Motivation) Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO

  19. The Optimum Organisational Structure • Non for Profit • Basic Funding • Independent • Attractive Salaries • Integrated into Scientific Community • Close Relation to Customer Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO

  20. Conclusions • Defense research organizations in Bulgaria do not have management arrangements, appropriate for the conduct of or participation in research projects, and especially international research projects. • It is difficult to find, motivate and keep involved young scientists in the current environment in BAS. • The culture of using OA / CAX requires considerable further promotion and improvement among end-users in the security sector. • Support from international experts and the integration into international projects is essential for the continuity of the capability. • The methodology of applied Operations Analysis, (not only the classical mathematical Operations Research) Modeling, and Simulation should be a key element in academic curricula. • The existence of the established capacity can only be sustained if a sufficient funding and tasking by the end users is guarantied. • The capacity of a “think tank” institution is a high value asset in national security structures. • The payoff for the investment in such an institution is very large in comparison to other defense assets or in relation to potentially wrong decisions in catastrophic situations. Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO

  21. Research and Development Aquisition Forces Deterrence Projection of Power Resources Projection of Capabilities Persuasion Resources Virtual Potential Demonstration The Change of Paradigm Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO

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