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May 2010

A SUMMARY UPDATE OF THE IRISH GROCERY MARKET TO 21 ST MARCH 2010 A Presentation to the National Consumer Agency. May 2010. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Headlines. The market declined by 5% in value, losing over €460 million over 52 weeks Household grocery spend shrunk by 7.5% in the same period

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May 2010

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  1. A SUMMARY UPDATE OF THE IRISH GROCERY MARKET TO 21ST MARCH 2010 A Presentation to the National Consumer Agency May 2010

  2. 1 2 3 4 5 Headlines • The market declined by 5% in value, losing over €460 million over 52 weeks • Household grocery spend shrunk by 7.5% in the same period • Move away from premium to budget products • Huge shift to products priced under €3 • Cross Border share falling back

  3. The grocery market has shrunk by 5% year-on-year, falling below 2008 value 52 we €000’s 12 we €000’s +3.2% - 5% -1.1% -7.5%

  4. HOW IS THE MARKET PERFORMING ON TRENDED BASIS? % VALUE CHANGE VS. LAST YEAR, 12 WEEKLY AND 4 WEEKLY TRENDED

  5. Each household spent €456 less on groceries in the year to 21ST March 2010 versus same period last year Annual Grocery Spend Quarterly Grocery Spend Monthly Grocery Spend -7.5% -7.5% -7%

  6. Why are households spending less? -7.5% +4% -5.1% -6.3% Contribution to % Change Deflation Volume per Household Store Choice Promotion or Product Choice Spend per Household 6

  7. 5 point shift to items under €3 58.1% of basket spend now on items priced under €3 – an increase of 5 points on last year Average grocery basket price bands

  8. Budget products are the only ones showing sales growth within total grocery Share of sales % Change in sales Median -75% Median -25% Median Price Median +25% Median +75% 8

  9. Trading down retailer is becoming less important in driving down household spend How are shopper coping strategies changing over time? Contribution to % Change

  10. So the gap between deflation and household spend is reducing 1 point gap 6 point gap 10

  11. 1 Why are shoppers staying down South? • They stocked up over the Christmas period Spend per Trip in December €60 Spend per Trip in March €53

  12. 2 Why are shoppers staying down South? • Exchange rate advantage continued to erode Source: www.x-rates.com

  13. 3 Why are shoppers staying down South? • Shopping in the Republic is becoming cheaper still Cost of basket of 85 commonly purchased branded goods and fresh produce fell by 7% last year

  14. 4 Why are shoppers staying down South? • The Big Freeze

  15. Brief Overview of UK Market

  16. Inflation And Household Spend GrowthTrading up not as high as in previous months Grocery (RST) 12we 21 Mar 2010 (KWP P04) 16

  17. While in the UK Standard and Super-Premium offerings are showing strongest growth as shoppers are beginning to trade back up into brands % Change in sales Share of sales Median -75% Median -25% Median Price Median +25% Median +75%

  18. Grocery Coping StrategiesConsumers using promotions to trade up in volume and quality - Grocery (RST) 12we 21 Mar 2010 (KWP P04) 18

  19. Grocery Coping StrategiesTrading up increasingly driven by volume and less about quality Grocery (RST) 12we 21 Mar 2010 (KWP P04) 19

  20. Promotional Mechanics Contribution To Growth% extra free and price cuts drive growth, as full price sales continue to fall Grocery (RST) 12we 21 Mar 2010 (KWP P04) 20

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