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Underwriting Risk Models: An Assessment. Presented by Urban E. Leimkuhler, FCAS, MAAA Manager & Senior Consultant Milliman - Princeton CAS Annual Meeting – New Orleans November 10, 2003. Underwriting Assessment. Outline Underwriting Assessment -The Problem Potential Solution
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Underwriting Risk Models: An Assessment Presented by Urban E. Leimkuhler, FCAS, MAAA Manager & Senior Consultant Milliman - Princeton CAS Annual Meeting – New Orleans November 10, 2003
Underwriting Assessment • Outline • Underwriting Assessment -The Problem • Potential Solution • Suggested Approach • The Process • Outcome
Underwriting Assessment • Compelling Industry Need for Excellence • In Underwriting • Low interest rate environment implies higher target underwriting returns • Resulting need to maximize performance at individual risk and portfolio levels • Industry actions affecting underwriting performance and readiness • Value in institutionalizing underwriting excellence
Underwriting Assessment • The Problem: • Industry failures to effectively train commercial lines • underwriters • Insufficient value attached to underwriting as a differentiator in company performance • Demise of underwriter training programs • Prolonged soft market underwriting and pricing practices • No available quick fixes
Underwriting Assessment • Potential Solution: • Institutionalize profitable risk selection and management • Analyze and quantify the effectiveness of underwriting and pricing practices • Identify and target opportunities for improvement • Implement changes in processes • Monitor and measure benefits through regular check-ups
Underwriting Assessment • Suggested Approach: • Evaluate specific areas for improvement • Strategies and guidelines • Information collection and management • Exposure identification / analysis underlying risk selection • Application of underwriting and pricing practices to individual risk • Monitoring tools • Benchmark and measure performance • Identify and quantify performance gaps • Report to management • Implement improvements • Benchmark performance at multiple levels
Underwriting Assessment The Process • Interviews (Evaluate Process) • File Reviews (Assess Outcomes) • Reports and Graphs
Underwriting Assessment • Interviews to Evaluate Process • Strategies and Guidelines • Application of Underwriting / Pricing Practices • Monitoring Tools
Underwriting Assessment • Interviews to Evaluate Process • General Manager • Underwriting Manager • Underwriter • Actuary • Loss Control • Claims • Marketing
Underwriting Assessment • Interviews to Evaluate Process • Strategies and Guidelines • Application of Underwriting / Pricing Practices • Monitoring Tools
Underwriting Assessment • Process Interviews-Strategies and Guidelines • Strategies / plans are defined, communicated and managed • Ongoing market assessment • Pricing programs and goals • Underwriting authority • Ratemaking process / rating plan structure
Underwriting Assessment • Interviews to Evaluate Process • Strategies and Guidelines • Application of Underwriting / Pricing Practices • Monitoring Tools
Underwriting Assessment • Process Interviews-Underwriting / Pricing • Practices - The Underwriter • Use of Loss Control information by Underwriting • Role of Premium Audit • Familiarity with producer capabilities • Management reinforcement through behavior • Feedback loops involving Claims, Actuarial Loss Control and Underwriting
Underwriting Assessment • Use of Loss Control Information by • Underwriting - Interview Questions • How effectively are Loss Control resources deployedby Underwriting? • How are Loss Control recommendations addressedby the Underwriter? • In what other ways is Loss Control asked to assistUnderwriting in ensuring effective risk selection, pricing and ongoing risk management? What otherinformation is provided?
Underwriting Assessment • Process Interviews-Underwriting / Pricing • Practices - The Actuary • Formal rate reviews • Manual rate development • Actuaries / underwriters execute decisions and action plans • Actuarial role in pricing • Ratemaking data and data quality • Actuarial / operating management coordination
Underwriting Assessment • Actuarial / Operating Management • Coordination - Interview Questions • What ongoing information and advice is provided by Actuary to Management? • What action plans are established - and by whom? • How effectively are these executed? • How would you characterize relationships between Actuarial and Management?
Underwriting Assessment • Interviews to Evaluate Process • Strategies and Guidelines • Application of Underwriting / Pricing Practices • Monitoring Tools
Underwriting Assessment • Process Interviews - Monitoring Tools • Price Monitoring • Producer Monitoring • Automated Profit / Loss Reports • Claims Metrics • Automated Production Reports • Underwriting Reviews / Audits
Underwriting Assessment • Sample Interview Screen - Underwriter
Underwriting Assessment • Sample Interview Screen - Underwriter
Underwriting Assessment • Sample Interview Screen - Actuary
Underwriting Assessment The Process • Interviews (Evaluate Process) • File Reviews (Assess Outcomes) • Reports and Graphs
Underwriting Assessment • File Reviews to Assess Outcomes • Information Collection / Management • Application of Underwriting / Pricing Practices • Underwriting Decision
Underwriting Assessment • File Reviews - • Information Collection / Management • Risk pre-qualification • Application / renewal questionnaire • Availability of loss experience • Loss Control reports • Access to / use of outside information
Underwriting Assessment • File Reviews - Underwriting / Pricing Practices • Exposure basis • Classification assignment • Evaluation of underwriting exposures • Coverage considerations • Basis for price decision • Interaction among disciplines that support Underwriting
UnderwritingAssessment • File Reviews - Underwriting Decision • Risk selection • Underwriting referral / 2nd opinion
Underwriting Assessment • Sample File Review Screen - Policy-Level Data
Underwriting Assessment • Sample File Review Screen - LOB Data
Underwriting Assessment • Sample File Review Practices Screen
Underwriting Assessment • Sample Premium Estimate Screen
Underwriting Assessment The Process • Interviews (Evaluate Process) • File Reviews (Assess Outcomes) • Reports and Charts
Underwriting Assessment • The Outcome • Process Effectiveness Scorecard • File Effectiveness Scorecard • Needed Improvements in Performance • Recommendations • Implementation Plan • Platform for Ongoing Benchmarking