Introduction to Research Methods

1. Introduction to Research Methods Voter turnout in the UK and the US

2. Announcement • Your essays are available for collection from the departmental office. Please collect them before you leave at the end of term. Enjoy the festive break.

3. The use of models in social sciences • Prediction is difficult in social science because of the ‘Oedipus effect’ • Hence, most models are explanatory • The world is complex, probably increasingly so • Hence we need parsimonious and robust models to understand it • A theory that says nothing about practice/reality is a bad theory

4. Rational choice • All models make simplifying assumptions • Remember that rationality is judged in terms of a person’s goals – not whether a third party judges whether those goals are rational • People are rational and predictable at least some of the time – that’s what market research is all about

5. Voting • Benefits of voting are low. Chances of affecting outcome are small, but there may be other satisfactions derived from ‘taking part’ • Costs are also relatively low, although variable. Costs of making decision may be higher than act. Hardly above rationality threshold.

6. A key insight • What rational choice tells us is that we should not be surprised that people do not vote, but that they do • Turnout is tending to fall slightly in established democracies, about 4 per cent from 1970s to 1990s, but very sharply more recently in the UK • Turnout tends to be very high in first elections in new democracies

7. So what? • Basic element of a democratic system, undermines legitimacy of that system if citizens do not vote • Democracy taken for granted by those who have it, most important element is guarantees of human rights, e.g., Chile • There is more to citizen engagement than voting – a concern primarily of the political class?

8. US comparison • Registration not turnout of those registered is the key variable • In presidential elections about 85% of those registered vote • But turnout of voter age population was 55.3% in 2004, although up from 51.3% in 2000 and 49.1% in 1996 • Non-south voting level near that of 1820s when many voters were illiterate

9. Registration • Essentially a state function, but with federal interventions • Easy and lax in some states, difficult in others (especially south) • Registered individuals tend to be better educated, older, more politically interested and more socially connected

10. Discrimination • In the past ‘All the suffrage provisions … were phrased to exclude from the franchise not African-Americans as such but persons with certain characteristics most of whom would be African-Americans (Key) • 4.7m felons disenfranchised, only a quarter in prison, half of them African American • Federal laws on residency requirements and motor voter programmes

11. Who is not registered in UK?

12. Key findings on registration • http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/elections/index.cfm for full details • Overall non-registration rate is 8-9%, 3.5m missing • Mobility a key factor, non-registration declines with time at address • Reasons are both situational and attitudinal, e.g., perceptions of registration (jury service) and ultimately attitudes towards voting and politics

13. UK turnout trends

14. The problem • ‘It seems clear that low turnouts are likely to be a permanent phenomenon’ (Worcester et al) • Making it easier to vote has limited impact and other costs such as fraud • PR systems have short run impact • Compulsory voting controversial

15. What doesn’t help explanation • Mechanics of voting • Levels of interest in politics – highly stable over time: very/fairly interested – 1973:60%, 2005:61% • Disappearance of tribal politics (outside N.Ireland) • Fewer voters have strong party attachment, only 20% with strong attachment

16. Turnout was higher in 2005 • If seat was marginal – this seems to be a mobilisation rather than a voter interest effect, campaigning makes a difference • Had a strong Lib Dem or minor party presence • Above average numbers of elderly and well educated voters

17. Social factors • Turnout well above the national average in safe Cons. seats and low in safe Labour seats • Social exclusion matched by political exclusion: those in working class occupations, have few educational qualifications or are unemployed are less likely to vote

18. ‘Duty to vote’ • Correlation between turnout and duty to vote by age is very high: R squared = 0.963 • Age is a key variable, 37% of those aged 18-24 voted, compared with 75% of those who are 65+ • If this is a generational effect, turnout is likely to continue to decline

19. Other factors • AB social class 71%, DE 54% • No gender differences • High levels of distrust in political parties, have lowest ratings across Europe of any political institution • Reflected in success of independents • But offer voters a structured choice

20. Core issue is low turnout of young voters • Not apathy but disengagement from politicians and political process • Henn et al show they support democratic process but are sceptical of how it works and are turned off by politicians and political parties • Young people do not consider political system open to them or responsive to their needs

21. Not a homogeneous group • Big differences based on social class and education, some gender effects, but no major ethnicity or regional effects • This is consistent with comparative literature which suggests social capital/networks important in transition for young person to regular voter

22. Broad perspectives • Young people less involved because of lifestyles and ‘start up’ problems • Campaigns focus on middle aged middle England • Young people have a ‘new politics’ agenda, but membership in cause groups not high • ‘Generational’ – more difficult to be young, fewer ways of transmitting knowledge about politics

23. Conclusions • Problem is more one of alienation rather than apathy • There is a small core of young people engaged with new social movements • Political system is failing to provide stimuli to young people to engage, hence crisis of democratic legitimacy