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Wind Needs for NextGen Applications

This study explores the impact of wind information accuracy on NextGen applications, such as Required Time of Arrival and Assigned Spacing Goal, and provides recommendations for wind data combinations, forecast models, and data ages that meet quality goals. The framework is scalable and flexible for application to concepts of operation and datalink needs.

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Wind Needs for NextGen Applications

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  1. Wind Needs forNextGen Applications Tom G. Reynolds Sponsor:Gary Pokodner, FAA Weather Technology in the Cockpit (WTIC) Air Traffic Control Systems Group

  2. Wind Needs for NextGen Applications Actual winds • Many NextGen applications depend on access to high accuracy wind data • Required Time of Arrival (RTA) at a meter fix under 4D-Trajectory Based Ops • Assigned Spacing Goal (ASG) between aircraft under Interval Management (IM) RTA Time target @ MeterFix; Wind updates? Meter Fix ATC/Airline Aircraft Winds Ground Winds Objective: Establish relationship of wind information accuracy to 4D-TBO and IM performance and hence identify wind needs to support them

  3. Wind Information Analysis Framework Stakeholder needs Wind Requirement Recommendations • Identify combinations of wind data, forecast models & data age which meet required wind info quality goals Benign, Moderate, Severe, Extreme Wind Scenario • Truth • Forecast Aircraft/Automation Simulation Performance Assessment Wind forecast assumptions ATC Scenario • 4D-TBO • IM Model A B C Average forecast error Data age Allows analysis of wind information impacts on range of NextGen applications Designed to be scalable wrt scope/fidelity & flexible wrt application

  4. Application of Framework to InformConcepts of Operation and/or Datalink Needs Identified need for enhanced automation and/or wind model 1. Define scenarios of interest 2. Identify performance trade-space 3. Select target performance level “or” 4. Do feasible combinations of performance drivers meet target level of performance? No • Yes 5. Do feasible combinations of wind forecast model and ages meet error limit? No • Yes 6. Define procedure/ConOps/datalink needs to get required wind info accuracy to aircraft

  5. Sample Application of Results • Define application of interest • 4D-TBO from FL290-FL390 to meter fix at 12,000 ft • Identify relevant trade-space • Select target performance level • +/- 10 secs 95% of time • Identify combinations ofperformance drivers whichmeet target level ofperformance • Any FMS/cruise altitudefeasible if wind error<5 kts RMS • Only A-FMS, any cruise level if wind error up to 15 kts RMS • Only A-FMS from low cruise alts if wind error up to 25 kts RMS Illustrative trade-space Wind Forecast Error Automation Capability/ATC Scenario A-FMS = Advanced FMS, B-FMS = Basic FMS

  6. Sample Application of Results • Identify wind models and data ages which achieve maximum allowable wind forecast error • HRRR data less than 2.5 hours old • RAP model data less than 1.5 hours old • GFS data: infeasible • Create procedures/ConOps to get required winds into aircraft • For trans-continental flights, require fresh wind updates based on RAP model within 1.5 hours or RTA time, or HRRR model within 2.5 hours of RTA time • Bandwidth needs for update depends on #WPs and amount of info at each WP

  7. Key Takeaways • Need to understand wind info accuracy impacts on NextGen to inform • Concepts of operation • Procedure performance targets • Datalink bandwidth needs • Wind forecast model performance and aircraft automation capability are key drivers • Future work • Validate findings • Explore FMS wind-handling and wind forecast enhancements • Address evolving RTCA/other stakeholder wind information needs

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