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ERC Consolidator Grant, Step 2 interview , Brussels, 25 Sept. 2013

N ew O utlook on seismic faults: F rom EAR thquake nucleation to arrest (acronym: NOFEAR ). Giulio Di Toro. Principal Investigator:. Padua University Italy 1222. Hosting Institution:. ERC Consolidator Grant, Step 2 interview , Brussels, 25 Sept. 2013.

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ERC Consolidator Grant, Step 2 interview , Brussels, 25 Sept. 2013

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  1. New Outlook on seismic faults: From EARthquake nucleation to arrest (acronym: NOFEAR) Giulio Di Toro Principal Investigator: Padua University Italy 1222 Hosting Institution: ERC Consolidator Grant, Step 2 interview , Brussels, 25 Sept. 2013

  2. Associate Prof. in Structural Geology at Padua University, Italy 58 peer-reviewed papers 4 Nature & Science papers as 1st author 2008 EGU Arne Richter Award in Geophysics 2010AccademiadeiLincei Award in Geology 2013 Member of the Academy of Europe Tutored 25 Post-Doc, PhD, MS & BS: 5won International Awards. ISI Web of Knowledge 1023 citations 17 HI Citations in Each Year Activities related to • ERCStGproject USEMS (2008-2013): Study of physico-chemical processes during the seismic cycle. USEMS showed “…outstanding publication record…recommended for follow up actions” (ERC scientific panel evaluation). • Two promotional videos for ERC.

  3. Outline of the NOFEAR project1. Motivation2. Methodology3. Anticipated results

  4. 1.Motivation Earthquakes(EQs, red) and landslides(blue) threaten our continent. http://www.seismo.ethz.ch/hazard/risk/flyers/Mediterranean.html

  5. Friction, fracture and geometry are the keys to understand the physics of EQs (and landslides*). • Destructive EQs nucleate at 7-25 km depthso are investigated remotely via seismology. • * addressed in NOFEAR, not in this interview because of time limitations.

  6. This “indirect”approach (seismograms, GPS, etc.) allows limited understandingof EQ physics. BUT Earthquake forecasting models (probability that a mainshock may occur in terms of hypocentre location, magnitude and time) call for a sound physical basis.

  7. The “direct”approach of NOFEARunifies Lab = friction and rupturelaws Field= fault geometry 2 cm 200 m and theoretical studies to enhance our knowledge of earthquake physics, from rupture nucleation to arrest. NOFEAR main by-product will be the systematic investigation of EQ (and landslides) precursors (seismic, physical, chemical and electromagnetic).

  8. To achieve these goals, NOFEAR exploits the most powerful and versatile EQ simulator installed worldwide: SHIVA = Slow to High Velocity Apparatus... 1 m Di Toro et al., Rend. Lin., 2010; Niemeijer et al., JGR 2011; Violay et al., EPSL 2013; Smith et al., Geology, 2013: Fondriest et al., Geology, 2013…

  9. …and the expertise of the Team I built thanks to USEMS, plus the resources at the Geosciences Dept.* in Padua and at INGV* in Rome. *Best Italian Earth Sciences Academic & Research Centers according to the 2013 evaluation of the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research. USEMS research team in 2010 Geosciences Dept. INGV

  10. 2. Methodology a) Experiments to determine friction and rupture laws… REAL ROCKS FRICTION EXPERIMENTS: SHIVA ROCK ANALOGUE RUPTURE EXPERIMENTS: UNIAXIAL PRESS 20 mm FRICTION LAW 20 cm Di Toro et al, Nature, 2004; 2011; Di Toro et al., Science, 2006; Nielsen et al., GJI, 2010; Spagnuolo et al., subm…

  11. and to investigate precursory events(AEs, physical, chemical, etc.) to main frictional instabilities (EQ nucleation). PHYSICAL PROPERTIES MODULE 50 mm Experimental fault Acoustic emissions, gas emission, attenuation and elastic moduli, etc. Shear stress (MPa) Slip rate (mm/s) Di Toro et al., 2010; Spagnuolo et al., subm.; Scarlato et al., 2013; Tisato & Quintal, GJI, 2013 Slip (m)

  12. b) Field studies to quantify the geometry of natural faults (natural faults are not as small and smooth as experimental faults). REMOTE SENSING (LIDAR) REMOTE SENSING (DRONE) SYNTHETIC FAULT SURFACE 200 m Generation of synthetic fault surfaces to use in EQ modeling Di Toro et al., Science, 2006; Bistacchi et al., PAGEOPH, 2011; Fondriest et al., JSG, 2012; Smith et al., Tectonophysics, 2013

  13. c) Numerical models calibrated by field, experimental and theoretical data to produce physically-based EQ simulations (& use in EQ probabilistic forecasting studies). Friction law from exp. Synthetic seismograms from modeling 100 m Wavy fault surface from field studies Di Toro et al., Nature 2005; Griffith et al., JGR 2010; Marzocchi et al., JGR, 2009 FERMI

  14. EXPERIMENTS: FRICTION & RUPTURE FIELD: FAULT GEOMETRY RUPTURE: UNIAXIAL PRESS FIELD SURVEY &STEREOPHOTOS REMOTE SENSING (DRONE) FRICTION & PRECURSORS: SHIVA 500 m SYNTHETIC FAULT SURFACE 3D VIRTUAL OUTCROP PHYSICAL PROPERTIES MODULE RUPT. DYNAMICS EXP. MODELING: EQ SIMULATION SYNTHETIC SEISMOGRAMS ACOUSTIC EMIS. MODELS FRICTION AND PRECURSORY SLIP FERMI EARTHQUAKE SIMULATIONS

  15. 3. Anticipated results of NOFEAR Scientific Understanding of: • the physics of earthquakes (and landslides). • seismic, chemical, physical and electromagnetic EQ main shock precursors. Technological Development of modules to measure physical and chemical properties of materials over a wide range of temperatures and deformation conditions.

  16. Team Members of the NOFEARproject 17 researchers coordinated by the PI: 3 Post-docs, one PhD and 13 scholars. A similar number of Team Members was involved in the previous ERC StG project USEMS: a) Experiments: SHIVA + rupture experiments Giovanni Romeo, Fabio Di Felice, PiergiorgioScarlato, Adriano Nardi (INGV, Rome), Stefan Nielsen (Durham Univ., UK) + 1 Post-doc (= Elena Spagnuolo) , 1 Ph.D. (Padua University) and AlexandreSchubnel (ENS, Paris), Nicola Tisato (ETH, Zurich). b) Field studies: Andrea Bistacchi (Milano Bicocca Univ. I) Steven Smith, (Otago Univ., NZL), Matteo Massironi + 1 Post-Doc (Padua Univ.). c) Numerical Models: Warner Marzocchi (INGV, Rome), ManueleFaccenda (Padua Univ.), 1 Post-doc (Padua Univ.) and IoanIonescu (Université Paris).

  17. NOFEAR: budget Padua University

  18. NOFEAR: budget INGV & total

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