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Uncertainties about Uncertainty

Uncertainties about Uncertainty. Cliff Mass. Major Issues. Are People Basically: Deterministic Probabilistic A Little of Each?. Deterministic Evidence. People seem to prefer deterministic products: “tell me exactly what is going to happen”

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Uncertainties about Uncertainty

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  1. Uncertainties about Uncertainty Cliff Mass

  2. Major Issues

  3. Are People Basically: DeterministicProbabilisticA Little of Each?

  4. Deterministic Evidence • People seem to prefer deterministic products: “tell me exactly what is going to happen” • People complain they find probabilistic information confusing • Media and internet not moving forward very quickly on this.

  5. An attempt… I suspect 99% of the people don’t understand

  6. Probabilistic Evidence • We often interact with our surroundings in a probabilistic way. • As we walk into a new environment we are constantly updating information, speculating on what/who an object is, reducing the possibilities ….

  7. We are highly attracted to games of chance And seem comfortable enough with odds…

  8. Perhaps... An approach that will work

  9. We are also used to probabilities in medicine The pills have a 90% chance of working

  10. Feedback • Some people like to read forecast discussions or listen to a TV forecast analyze the situation to determine the uncertainty in the forecast.

  11. The Statistic Prediction Infrastructure is Still Not in Place • NCEP is way behind the times • The U.S. lacks reliable and reasonable sharp prediction of PDFs of major variables. • We are making progress, but we still have far to go for local BMA for all basic parameters. • What about for derived parameters..such as visibility and ceiling? • Verification is still primitive.

  12. But even if we had the statistical engine to produce good pdfs • In the end, people and industries have to make a deterministic decision…to do or not do something. • The biggest problem is to help people go from pdfs and probabilistic information to decision making. They need a model or tool or application to do so? • Imagine a new type of generic decision-making application that walks them through it..

  13. Web-Based Decision Aid • Welcome, let me help you make your weather decision. • Are you concerned about one time or for a period of time? • What weather parameter is of concern? List shown • For your activity, what range of that parameter is acceptable? • If the forecast is wrong how much would it cost you? • Do you have so spend money to protect against a wrong forecast? If so, how much?

  14. Decision Aid • Here is a summary of what you told us: • Hit return to see the optimal decision based on your information.

  15. Decision Aid • You should do the activity. There is only a 5% chance you will not be able to complete it. • If we greedy… • May we suggest that you ….

  16. Determining How People Think • Do we really know how people process, interpret, and use probabilistic information? • What will encourage them to use it? • Susan and others have started, but clearly far more to do. • Do people use probabilities differently or better/worse for extreme events?

  17. The Future … and the End

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