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CRFS November 14, 2012

Water Year 2012: Review of hydrologic Conditions that impacted forecasts in the Colorado River Basin. CRFS November 14, 2012. Entering the Season (what did we know in the fall): Coming off major runoff year - Soil Moisture (not bad) - Baseflow (not bad)

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CRFS November 14, 2012

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  1. Water Year 2012:Review of hydrologic Conditions that impacted forecasts in the Colorado River Basin CRFS November 14, 2012

  2. Entering the Season (what did we know in the fall): Coming off major runoff year - Soil Moisture (not bad) - Baseflow (not bad) La Nina Conditions (no help) The Winter: Reasonable, up until March The Spring: Disastrous… Water Year 2012:

  3. USGS Monthly Average Streamflow October 2011(includes regulated flows) CBRFC Model Soil Moisture11/1/11

  4. Were Entering 2nd year of La Nina conditions Sources: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov and iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO

  5. CPC Precipitation Outlooks Nov 17,2011

  6. CPC Climate Forecast December 15, 2011

  7. CPC Climate Forecast February 16, 2012

  8. In March things begin to go horribly wrong

  9. March 2012 Precip anomalies April 2012 Precip anomalies May 2012 Precip anomalies June 2012 Precip anomalies The DRY !! April, May, and June were extremely dry. Over many basins, these three months combined were among the driest AMJs on record. Source: www.prism.oregonstate.edu

  10. The Heat !!

  11. Snowpack Decimation – well under way

  12. Snowpack essentially gone except for the Wind River Range

  13. USGS Monthly Average Streamflow (includes regulated flows) March 2012 May 2012

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