1 / 14

Carbon Trading: Prospects and Drivers Kristian Tangen, Point Carbon IETA-seminar Bonn

Carbon Trading: Prospects and Drivers Kristian Tangen, Point Carbon IETA-seminar Bonn June 10 2003. Carbon Market Analyst F orecasts and market reports Carbon Market Quarterly The broader picture Country Profiles Ranking of JI hosts Carbon Market Projects

medge-hebert
Download Presentation

Carbon Trading: Prospects and Drivers Kristian Tangen, Point Carbon IETA-seminar Bonn

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Carbon Trading: Prospects and Drivers Kristian Tangen, Point Carbon IETA-seminar Bonn June 10 2003

  2. Carbon Market Analyst Forecasts and market reports Carbon Market Quarterly The broader picture Country Profiles Ranking of JI hosts Carbon Market Projects Tailor-made package for the CDM & JI Markets Carbon Market News Free daily newsletter Carbon Market Europe Free weekly newsletter CDM Monitor Free Monthly service Carbon Transaction Database World’s most comprehensive >400 transactions, 400 MtCO2e Trading Systems Database With IETA Structural price-model Simulation of policy scenarios Monte Carlo-simulations Parametric sensitivity studies Expert Networks Polls Products and tools Products Analytical tools See www.pointcarbon.com

  3. A fragmented market • Not ONE market: • Domestic schemes • Project-based programs • Voluntary programs • Not ONE commodity: • Payment, risk-sharing • Standardisation: only in domestic schemes • Not ONE price

  4. Trends 2002-2003 • Focus of attention shifting towards Europe • On-going UK, Danish and Dutch programs • Planned EU ETS directive • First trade in EU allowances February 2003 • Volumes in domestic schemes dwarfed by CDM/JI • But, how much will be offered to the market, and when? • Focus on projects compatible with Kyoto rules • CDM/JI • First ”clean” AAU-deal in December 2002

  5. No. Transactions 1996-2002

  6. Traded Volumes 1996-2003

  7. Future: Political drivers • Russian ratification • Increased Japanese demand • (Canada) • EU ETS Directive • Creates a large market from 2005 • EU JI/CDM Directive • No sinks or large hydro? • Ceilings (6%)? • Effects on the CER-market • CDM Procedures

  8. EU ETS: Current prices • Bids and offers, ref. Carbon Markets Europe • 5 to 7 €/tCO2 bid-offer spread, firm bids: 5 to 5.5 €/tCO2 • Nuon-Shell deal: probably in the indicative market • Why this price-level? • Maybe: Point Carbon’s September ’02 analysis (5 €/tCO2) • Probably: linked to CER prices (4 to 6 €/tCO2) • The CDM is currently influencing EU prices • The role of CDM, in the longer term? • What would be the volume?

  9. Prospects for the CDM • Developing CDM-projects is time-consuming • After 5 years: relatively few projects • The most advanced have reached the PDD-stadium • Implementation, after EB approval of PDD: 1-2 years • Issuance of CERs: 1 year after implementation • 1-3 years from PDD to CER • Projects that have not yet been developed as PDDs are not likely to start delivering CERs before after 2005 • Current PDDs give an indication of CER-supply by 2005

  10. CER volumes • About 2 MtCO2e to market in 2005 • About 0,1 % of total emissions • Dwarfed by annual variations • CERs to market in 2005: 3.35 MtCO2e

  11. Natural variation, EU15 • Total volume allowances: 1800 MtCO2e • Natural variation: 30 MtCO2e • CERs to market in 2005: 3.35 MtCO2e

  12. The size of the EU market

  13. Conclusions • Market implications for CERs • CER price = Price of EAU • Two prices: approved and not approved by EU • Offset opportunities: Reduced risk in connection with CDM investments • Makes CDM more attractive • But potential depends on procedures...

  14. Thank you for your attention! For more information : kt@pointcarbon.com www.pointcarbon.com

More Related