Stuff we’ll need for the Midterm

1. Stuff we’ll need for the Midterm James Burns October 25, 2005

2. 1 2 3 4 1 || 0 1 0 0 || 2 || 0 0 1 0 || 3 || 0 1 0 1 || 4 || 0 0 0 0 || The Adjacency Matrix

3. Also known as the Square Ternary Matrix • Be able to convert it to a causal loop diagram • Be able to convert the CLD to a SDF • Be able to write the rate equations associated with the SFD • Assumes rates are multiplicative functions of their antecedents

4. The Pension Fund Problem • What sectors did you find? • What stocks? • What rates?

7. Feedback • Name two types • Which type produces exponential growth? • Which type produces exponential goal seeking? • What is the discernment rule for distinguishing one type from another?

8. What about delays? • Cause ____ and ____ when ____ moves are applied • Cause oscillation and overshoot when aggressive moves are applied

9. Seeing the World Anew • As wholes • Seeing ourselves as part of the whole, part of the system • Coping with Complexity mandates systems thinking • Today, we are creating complexity at a frenetic pace

10. When is dynamic complexity present? • When there are dramatically different effects in the short vs. the long run • When an action has one set of consequences locally and a very different set of consequences in another part of the system • When obvious interventions produce non-obvious consequences

11. The first Archetype • Senge often says structures of which we are unaware hold us ____. • All growth eventually ____. • Which archetype illustrates this?? • Most managers react to the slowing growth by pushing harder on the _____ loop • Instead, concentrate on the balancing loop--changing the _____ factor

12. Structure growing action state of stock slowing action Balancing Reinforcing

13. VENSIM • Know how to create CLD’s • Know how to create SFDs • Know how to use the tools • Know how to use the output icons—print/plot/etc