Ensuring Global Food Security

1. Ensuring Global Food Security Shenggen Fan International Food Policy Research Institute SID Vijverberg Session on Food The Hague, September 22, 2009

2. Overview • Food security under stress • Outlook: Production, prices, nutrition • Policy agenda for investment and action

3. Food insecurity due to multiple stress factors Price volatility Low R&D investment Limited capital Climate change Subsidized biofuels Food security Recession Water scarcity Land degradation Pests & diseases Declining trade Lack of infrastructure Fast growth of demand Agriculture is a necessary condition to address these stress factors

4. Food price crisis and food riots Price spike Source: J. von Braun based on news reports. Price are data from FAO 2009.

5. Domestic prices remain high and volatile Maize Rice Source: FAO 2009.

6. Food crisis worsened by economic recessions Source: Data from IMF 2009; Ratha, Mohapatra, and Silwal. 2009; UNCTAD 2009, and World Bank 2009.

7. Land constraints • At most 12% more arable land available that isn’t presently forested or subject to erosion or desertification (Thompson 2009) • Land prices per hectare: $1,000 – $100,000 • Land area in production could be doubled, but only by: • massive destruction of forests and loss of biodiversity and carbon sequestration capacity • high marginal costs of investment

8. Water constraints: Areas of physical and economic water scarcity Source: Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture, 2007.

9. Rising number of hungry people in the developing world >1 bil. (in million) WFS target Data source: FAO 2006, 2008, 2009.

10. Rising world population adds to pressures on food security Population = 9 bil. by 2050 Countries resized relative to population in 2050 Source: Worldmapper 2009.

11. Overview • Food security under stress • Outlook: Production, prices, nutrition • Policy agenda for investment and action

12. Climate induced percentage change in production in 2050: Irrigated wheat NCAR A2a Global production = -42% Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.

13. Climate change impact: Global food prices Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.

14. Climate change impact: Child malnutrition Part of the silent Climate change health crisis Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.

15. Agriculture must be on the 2009 Copenhagen agenda, but how? • Investment: agriculture-related investments, as part of a Global Climate Change Fund • Incentives: phase in incentives first to reduce emissions and support technological change • Information: Establish comprehensive information and monitoring services of land use and soils for verification purposes

16. Policy and investment scenarios • INC AG RES: 60% increase in crop yield growth and 30% increase in livestock growth • INC AG RES w/EFF: productivity growth by 30% in 2015 and by 50% in 2030 • NRM/IMM:Enhanced water and soil management with enhanced market access • INC AG RES w/EFF & IRR EXP • COMP POL_INV:NRM/IMM + INC AG RES w/EFF + IRR EXP Source: Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.

17. Maizeyields Source: Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.

18. Prices Source: Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.

19. Child malnutrition Source: Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.

20. Overview • Food security under stress • Outlook: Production, prices, nutrition • Policy agenda for investment and action

21. Strategic agenda Facilitate open trade and reduce market volatility Promote pro-poor agriculture growth with technology and institutional innovations Expand social protection and child nutrition action

22. Policy agenda for investment and action Short-term: Jumpstart agric. productivity in key areas Establish emergency grain reserve to reduce volatility Expand emergency and humanitarian assistance Long-term: Invest in sustainable pro-poor agric. growth Calm markets and facilitate open trade Invest in social protection and child nutrition action

23. Short-term actions for agric. productivity enhancement • Access to finance (e.g. rural banks and micro-finance) • Expansion of risk management (e.g. crop insurance) • Access to inputs (e.g. quality seeds, fertilizer, feed, veterinary drugs) • Access to services, extension • Investment in rural infrastructure (rural roads, electrification, water and irrigation)

24. Long-term action for agric. growth:Double public agric. R&D to impact poverty CGIAR investment to rise from US$0.5 to US$1.0 billion as part of this expansion Source: von Braun, Shenggen Fan, et al. 2008.

25. Calm markets and facilitate open trade Keep trade open even at times of global and regional food shortage Regulate food commodity markets? (only as part of financial markets) Establish grain reserves policy at global level shared physical reserves, and virtual reserve (a new institution at global level)

26. Invest in social protection and child nutrition action • Protective actions e.g.: • Cash transfers • Employment-based food security programs • Preventive actions e.g.: • School feeding (new insights) • Early childhood nutrition programs Focus on children, women, and poorest

27. Food Security Portalhttp://www.foodsecurityportal.org • Presents current info on world food system developments • Increases ability to respond quickly and adequately • Facilitated by IFPRI