Energy Policy in the 21 st Century

1. Energy Policy in the 21st Century • Security • Dependence on unstable parts of the world for a vital resource is foolish and dangerous • In the future we can expect climate driven wars, water shortages, food insecurity • Cost • Every day, we send $1 billion overseas for oil • The price of oil is set on the global market, and demand is burgeoning, causing higher prices • Prices will only continue to rise as China and India develop • Global Warming • It’s real, it’s caused by humans, and it’s dangerous

2. Meet Mr. Willard Mitt Romney(minus the dog on the roof of the car and war rhetoric against Iran)

4. A Continuing and Looming Challenge • Every day, we send $1 billion overseas for oil. • Department of Defense and the Central Intelligence Agency have labeled global climate disruption as a "threat multiplier," meaning it takes a dangerous situation and makes it worse. Source: Norman R. Seip retired in 2009 as a lieutenant general in the U.S. Air Force. http://www.operationfree.net/2012/03/19/militarys-use-of-solar-power-is-one-step-toward-a-more-secure-future/

5. The Supply of Oil Is Unstable

6. Energy Security • There are 23 countries whose oil and gas exports constitute more than 60% of its exports. • None of these are democracies • Of the top ten holders of oil reserves, as of 2008, all but one are considered to be a failed states or in danger of becoming a failed states • Governments with oil income don’t need a tax base, so don’t need to create accountable democratic structures Source: Truman National Security Project and Foreign Policy

7. Source: Truman National Security Project

9. Oil Is Increasingly Expensive

10. Oil Is Traded On A Global Market -We Can’t Make US Prices Go Down

13. Example: US Military Costs

14. We Can’t Just Drill Our Way Out

17. We Shouldn’t Drill Our Way Out:Climate Change

18. Global Warming • It’s real • It’s caused by human activity • It’s dangerous, and • It’s very, very expensive

19. Warming is Occurring 20 Warmest Years on Record These are the warmest years at least since 1880, but based on reconstructions, probably the warmest in millennia.

20. Human Activity Is Causing It http://grist.org/climate-change/2011-10-07-guilty-as-charged-proof-of-human-fingerprints-on-climate-change/

21. It’s Dangerous • Higher maximum temperatures, more heat waves (52,000 deaths in 2003 European heat wave) • More intense precipitation events (catastrophic US floods of 2011) • Increased number and intensity of droughts (Southwest of US, Darfur, Somalia, Russian fires that destroyed 1/3 of wheat crop in 2010) • Increased number and intensity of hurricanes • Intensified droughts and floods during El Nino events • Increased Asian monsoon variability (Pakistan floods of 2010, covering 1/5 of land area)

22. It’s Very, Very Expensive • One reason for complacency is a study from 1990s claiming CC would only cost 1% of GDP • Proposed that benefits would balance losses (more AC in the summer, but less heating in winter). Crops would just move North. • GDP is a bad measure – a house destroyed by a hurricane does not affect GDP, because rebuilding stimulates the economy • Current estimates from 3.6% to 20% of world GDP by 2050.

23. Concerned Parties: It Isn’t Just Tree Huggers • “We will pay for this one way or another. We will pay to reduce greenhouse gas emissions today…or we will pay the price later in military terms. And that will involve human lives.” – General Anthony Zinni, Former Commander-in-Chief U.S. Central Command • America’s national security leaders, including the Pentagon, the State Department, the National Intelligence Council, and the Central Intelligence Agency, are planning for the threats to national security posed by climate change • The CIA has created the Center on Climate Change and National Security Source: Truman National Security Project

24. Obama’s Energy Policy • Objective 1: Reduce Domestic Consumption • Objective 2: Increase Sustainable and Clean Domestic Production

26. Goal: Reduce Oil Imports By 1/3 By 2025 • Half of this will be achieved by tightened fuel efficiency standards (CAFE) • 2 Phases: announced 2009 and 2011 • Span model years 2011-2025 • Worked out with auto companies, UAW, California, and environmental advocates

27. Effect of Rise in CAFE Standards • Save 12 Billion barrels of oil (nearly 4 years of consumption by light duty vehicles at current rates) • After 2025, as fleet turns over, will save 4 Million barrels/day (nearly as much as we import from all OPEC countries combined.) • Reduce CO2 emissions by 6 Billion metric tons (2009 total US emissions – 5.4 Billion metric tons)

28. CAFE Standards in One Picture

30. Obama’s Energy Policy, Continued • Tripled the government's investment in clean energy: • smarter power grid • energy efficiency • electric cars • renewable power. • Electricity generation from alternative sources has increased significantly from 2008 to 2010: • Wind increased 71% • Solar increased 40%. • 40% of the world’s advanced vehicle batteries will be produced by the US in 2015. This is up from 2% in 2009

32. Support for Alternative Fuel Vehicles • The President is announcing a new $1 billion National Community Deployment • Remove the regulatory barriers, and create the local incentives to support deployment of advanced vehicles at critical mass. • Making advanced vehicles more affordable: The President proposes to improve the current tax credit for electric vehicles by • Expanding eligibility for the credit to a broader range of advanced vehicle technologies

33. Alternative Fuel Vehicles, Continued • Increasing the amount from $7,500, making it scalable up to $10,000; • Reforming the credit to make it available at the point-of-sale by making it transferable to the dealer or financier, allowing consumers to benefit when they purchase a vehicle rather than when they file their taxes; and • Removing the cap on the number of vehicles per manufacturer eligible for the credit and, instead, ramping down and eventually eliminating the credit at the end of the decade.

34. Additional measures and benefits • Accelerating deployment of alternative-fuel trucks: The President is proposing a new tax incentive for commercial trucks that provides a credit for 50% of the incremental cost of a dedicated alternative-fuel truck, including trucks powered by natural gas or electricity, for a five-year period. • Drive up demand for the sorts of vehicles built at Freightliner’s Mt. Holly Plant and, in turn, spur job creation in the American manufacturing sector. • The savings from using lower-cost electricity instead of gasoline, roughly $100 per month for the average driver, combined with the reduction of upfront vehicle cost, will lower energy costs for American consumers and businesses.

35. The Military Is Taking Action

36. The Military Is Taking Action, continued • Increasingly, the sun is being used to power forward operating bases in Afghanistan. Solar panels save lives on the front lines by minimizing the need for fuel convoys that are big, slow and highly vulnerable to attack. • One military base in Arizona, enough solar panels have been installed on the ground and on the rooftops of homes that it is now one of the single biggest solar-powered communities in the continental United States. • At Luke Air Force Base in suburban Phoenix, the Air Force is partnering with a local company to build an array of 52,000 high-efficiency solar panels. Once complete, the solar plant will meet 50 percent of the base's overall electricity needs.

38. Concluding Remarks • President Obama’s policies move the United States in the right direction • Don’t believe the hype: Republican claims are on the wrong side of fact and common sense. Plainly stated: GOP policies are dangerous, compromising the environment, the American workforce and the defense of our Nation

39. Responsible Hydrocarbon Policies • Contrary to Republican claims, Obama’s policies are not inhibiting oil development • In 2010, American oil production reached its highest level since 2003, and total U.S. natural gas production reached its highest level in more than 30 years

41. Reckless Talk of War, Sanctions, Iran and the Price of Oil • Christine Lagarde, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund warned Tuesday that a sudden spike in oil prices would have "serious consequences" for the global recovery. • Sanctions could be responsible for 30% of the rise in the price of oil • The trade group for the global aviation industry warned airlines could run up losses of over $5 billion US this year if oil prices jump to $150 US a barrel because of Western tensions with Iran. Source: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/story/2012/03/20/oil-prices-warnings.html

42. Reckless Talk of War, Sanctions, Iran and the Price of Oil • 20% of oil moves through the Straight of Hormuz • War against Iran could quadruple the price of oil • Mitt Romney has said Iran supports the Taliban. A false case for military action for which he has signaled support. Source: http://www.npr.org/2012/03/06/148072119/gop-candidates-criticize-obama-at-u-s-israel-conference

43. Reckless Talk of War, Sanctions, Iran and the Price of Oil • Mitt Romney’s foreign policy advisors “Déjà vu all over again” --Yogi Berra • ““Their remarkable experience, wisdom, and depth of knowledge will be critical to ensuring that the 21st century is another American Century,” - Mitt Romney • Several of Romney’s advisers were among the most forceful proponents the Project for a New American Century, the one that sought to remake the map of the Middle East http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/mitt-romney-taps-foreign-policy-national-security-advisers/2011/10/06/gIQAnDHzPL_story_1.html