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Census Evaluation in Kenya

Census Evaluation in Kenya. By M.G. Obudho & J. K. Bore Kenya National Bureau of Statistics. History of Census in Kenya. 7 censuses including the 1948 and 1962 Post Independence Censuses: 1969, 1979,1989,1999 & 2009 Census Night maintained as 24/25 th August

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Census Evaluation in Kenya

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  1. Census Evaluation in Kenya By M.G. Obudho & J. K. Bore Kenya National Bureau of Statistics

  2. History of Census in Kenya • 7 censuses including the 1948 and 1962 • Post Independence Censuses: 1969, 1979,1989,1999 & 2009 • Census Night maintained as 24/25th August • Success of consistencies attributed to Gvt commitment and funding

  3. History of Census Evaluation • First PES attempt was after 1989 Census, but was not implemented • Second attempt was made in 2000, after 1999 census • The 2000 PES was conducted but was not conclusively finalized • The next PES is scheduled for November 2009 to evaluate the August, 2009 Census

  4. Kenya 2000 PES • Main objectives were to evaluate the coverage and error rates for 1999 Kenya Population and Housing census • Covered 7 out the 8 provinces in Kenya. • North Eastern Province (2% of Kenyan pop) was not covered due to nomadic nature)

  5. Design for 2000 PES • Domains of estimation: National, Urban,Rural and 7 provinces • A single stage stratified cluster sample design • Stratification by province and urban/rural • Used the EAs as PSUs from the cartographic mapping done prior to the 1999 Census • All households within the sampled EA were covered • Sample size of 500 EAs out of the 62,000 EAs realized

  6. Sample distribution for 2000 PES

  7. Personnel for 2000 PES • The Central Bureau of Statistics, CBS (presently Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, KNBS) conducted the exercise • The technical officers from the Bureau HQs who were key in census managed PES

  8. Personnel for 2000 PES cont…. • Supervisors were chosen from those who worked well in census • Enumerators were picked from those who excelled in census & new ones

  9. RESULTS OF 2000 PES • Though not fully concluded, the results were still used to adjust the census results • Vital lessons were learnt from it to inform future similar exercises

  10. Challenges in 2000 PES • Lack of independence for PES and census personnel • Lack of full integration of PES and census in terms of planning and funding • Lack of technical capacity at the Bureau to handle the PES • PES was done six months after census which led to low match rate & memory recall • Manual matching was used and was very tedious and slow

  11. Plan for the 2009 PES • The next PES is scheduled for November 2009 to evaluate 2009 census • Pilot PES will be conducted a month prior to PES • Capture by scanning the names of census respondents in the PES sampled EAs

  12. Objectives of 2009 PES • Quantitatively evaluate accuracy of the census in terms of coverage and content error at the national, urban/rural and provincial levels. • Provide, if necessary, concrete statistical basis for adjustment of the census data • Act as a basis to provide and document lessons learnt for improving and implementing future censuses and surveys. • Provide information on erroneous enumeration and omissions during census enumeration • Enable KNBS staff to gain experience and enhance skills in census evaluation

  13. The proposed Design for 2009 PES • Sample size was calculated based on: - achieving a CV of 5% at province level - a census omission rate of 5% - a 10% adjustment for non-response

  14. Design 2009 PES cont……. • Cover all the country’s 8 provinces • A stratified single stage cluster sampling design • Stratification by provinces • Sampling of EAs by PPS from about 96,000 EAs realized in 2009 census • A total of 298 EAs are targeted • An equal allocation to all provinces made

  15. Design 2009 PES cont……. • On the design, two other options are being explored • In those options we may oversample the ASAL areas • Availability of funds will be the main determining factor for implementing any of these two other options

  16. Sample distribution for 2009 PES

  17. Matching • Computer matching and supplemented with the manual one will be employed • Working closely with the US Census Bureau to identify the computer program

  18. Concerns • If PES results suggests call for adjusting census figures downwards for a region, how do you deal with the wrath of the politicians from the affected areas? • If the PES results are not correct then any action to adjust census figures is dangerous; how do we safeguard against getting misleading results?

  19. Ahsante Sana! Thank You!

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