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Global Petrochemical Industry & Iran Partnership: Strategic Insights

Explore global petrochemical industry trends, Iran's energy sector dynamics, and strategic partnership prospects with Korea. Detailed analysis on market outlook, oil price volatility impact, chemical product distinctions, and regional investment strategies. Contact NH Investment & Securities for expert insights.

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Global Petrochemical Industry & Iran Partnership: Strategic Insights

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  1. I. Global Petrochemical Industry II. Iran Petrochemical Industry III. Petrochemical Cooperation with Korea-Iran NH Investment & Securities Global Credit Strategist: Hwan Jong (Louis) Shin tel02) 768-7590 │e-maillouis.shin@nhqv.com

  2. 1. Situation and Outlook of the Global Petrochemical Industry Global Linkage – GDP to Petrochemicals Demand Growth Global Energy Prices (US$/mm BTU) Source: BMI, NPC Source: BMI, NPC

  3. China demand is continuously increasing Global ethylene price China’s ethylene imports Source: BMI, NPC Source: BMI, NPC

  4. China’s coal chemistry structure and outlook Structure of China’s coal chemistry Outlook for China’s CTO production capacity Source: Wood Mackenzie Source: Wood Mackenzie

  5. China’s increasing self-sufficiency rate is a negative factor Trends of Exports and Imports (TPA, EG) % change of imports and self-sufficiency rate Source: Wood Mackenzie Source: Wood Mackenzie

  6. Feedstock: Directly related to profitability Capacity expansion per raw materials Polymer supply growth trends per countries Source: BMI, NPC Source: BMI, NPC

  7. New ethylene investments forecasted next 10 years Global Ethylene Additions by Region Global Ethylene Additions by Feedstock Source: BMI, NPC Source: BMI, NPC

  8. Global investment strategy based on local status Outlook for productions of feedstocks in North America Net Trade per materials in China Source: BMI, NPC Source: BMI, NPC

  9. 35% of all investments concentrated in US (Base Chem.,2016~2020) Global Base Chemicals Capacity Outlook Source: NPC

  10. Middle East: Main point of investment strategy is Iran Middle East Ethylene Capacity Source: NPC

  11. 2. Oil Price Volitility: Oil price remains in a range of $40~60/bbl Trends of Naptha and Crude oil price Source: Cischem

  12. Oil price expected to remain in a range of $40~60/bbl Number of Us oil rigs and WTI price Supply-demand outlook for global oil (supply-demand balance) (left) (Oil Price) (right) Source: Baker Huges, Bloomberg Source: International Energy Agency, World Bank

  13. Appearance of US LNG, a substitute for oil Factors determining the directions of oil price Source: KPIA

  14. Competitiveness of NCC is somewhat superior in case of low oil price Correlation between Brent Crude Oil and chemical products (1990~2016) Source: Wood Mackenzie

  15. Competitiveness of NCC is somewhat superior in case of low oil price Comparison of ethylene production cost, cracker margins by areas cracker margins by areas Source: Wood Mackenzie

  16. Exports dependency on China is still high Trends of exporting petrochemical products to China Composition of Exports to China per products Source: KPIA Source: Wood Mackenzie

  17. Oil price affects supply and cost-competiveness High oil price Low oil price Source: KPIA Source: KPIA

  18. Upstream/Downstream features and EBITDA Margin Rate Upstream vs. Downstream EBITDA Margin Rate Source: KPIA Source: KPIA

  19. 3. Distinction of Chemical Products: Products derived from Naphtha are susceptive to the change of oil price Correlation between Brent Crude Oil and chemical products (1990~2016) Source: Wood Mackenzie, ArgusMedia, PetroChem Wire

  20. Ethylene & Butadien price is increasing Trends of feedstock and Material-in-process spread Source: Cischem

  21. Benzene: China’s Import volumes will be shrunk 2016-2017 Korea Monthly Export Volumes Source: NPC

  22. Petrochemical product’s spreads weaken Olefin and Benzene Spread Source: Cischem

  23. Outlook for each products’ supply Outlook for supply per products Source: KPIA

  24. Supply-demand of ethylene expected to be deteriorated ECC Project in North America Trends for Global Ethylene Cracker expansion Source: Bloomberg, Platts, IHS Source: Bloomberg, Platts, IHS

  25. Propylene’s supply & demand Outlook for expanding production capacity (Global propylene) Source: Cischem, Bloomberg, Platts

  26. Propylene in China Outlook for propylene production Propylene demand and self-sufficiency rate Source: Wood Mackenzie Source: Wood Mackenzie

  27. Butadien supply outlook Butadien expansion status Trends for Global butadien expansion Source: Bloomberg, Cischem, Chemlocus Source: Bloomberg, Cischem, Chemlocus

  28. Butadien price Outlook for Downstream Demand Outlook for global tire market Source: IHS Chemical Source: LMC International

  29. Outlook for P-X Supply P-X Expansion Trends for P-X Expansion Source: Wood Mackenzie Source: Wood Mackenzie

  30. I. Global Petrochemical Industry II. Iran Petrochemical Industry III. Petrochemical Cooperation with Korea-Iran NH Investment & Securities Global Credit Strategist: Hwan Jong (Louis) Shin tel02) 768-7590 │e-maillouis.shin@nhqv.com

  31. 1. Iran Energy Industry: Due to economical disruption, operating rate of petrochemical plant is still low Map of wells in Iran Source: Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC)

  32. Oil production and consumption Trends of oil production and consumption in Iran (1965~2014) Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy

  33. Natural gas production and consumption Trends of natural gas production and consumption in Iran (1970~2014) Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015

  34. Comparison between Buy-back contracts and IPC Comparison between Buy-back contracts and IPC Source: Dongbu Securities Co.Ltd(2016.1.12)

  35. Locations of gas pipeline in Europe, Turkey, Iran Locations of gas pipeline in Europe, Turkey, Iran Footnote: Dot lines represent pipelines under progress Source: JOGMEC

  36. 2. Status of Petrochemical Industry in Iran • 1) Status of Industry • -Operating rate of petrochemical plant is still low due to economical disruption • -Feedstock is Ethane • -Olefin is the most productive feedstock • -Petrochemcial hurbs areMahshahr PETZoneandAssaluyeh PSEEZ • -Interruption by government is the factor lagging the development of petrochemical industry • 2) Structure of Industry • NPC is a monopoly in Iran • Branches of NPC are under process of privatization • 3) Current Issues • -5 Petrochemical complex would be arranged as five-year term development plan • In Mahshahr PETZone,7plants are being constructed • In Assaluyeh PSEEZ, 22plantsare being constructed • -Otehrs: Olefin, Polyethylene producing-facility expansion • -West Ethylene pipeline construction project • -Central Ethane-Ethylene pipeline construction project

  37. Feedstock for Petrochemical industry in Iran is Ethane Composition of cracking material Cracking plant status and production capacity Source: BMI Source: BMI, NPC

  38. Olefin is the most productive material among others Estimated production capacity in 2015 (Total) Estimated production capacity in 2015 (Olefin) Source: BMI Source: BMI

  39. BTX and Polyethylene Estimated production capacity in 2015 (BTX) Estimated production capacity in 2015 (Polyethylene) Source: BMI Source: BMI

  40. Iran Petrochemical Hurb: Mahshahr PETZONE & Assaluyeh PSEEZ Petrochemical complex status in Iran Locations of Mahshahr PETZONE & Assaluyeh PSEEZ Source: NPC Source: Google Earth

  41. Hurb: Mahshahr PETZONE & Assaluyeh PSEEZ Petrochemical complex: Mahshahr PETZONE Petrochemical complex: Assaluyeh PSEEZ Source: NPC Source: NPC

  42. Other locations Petrochemical complex: others Locations of petrochemical complex in Iran Source: NPC Source: NPC

  43. Iran’s Petrochemical project: Mahshahr & Assaluyeh Mahshahr PETZONE: 7 plants under construction Assaluyeh PSEEZ: 22 plants under construction Source: NPC Source: NPC

  44. Iran’s Petrochemical project: others Other ongoing projects in Iran Source: NPC

  45. West Ehylene Pipeline project West Ethylene pipeline construction project West Ethylene pipeline map Source: NPC Source: NPC

  46. Central Ethane-Ethylene Pipeline project Central Ethane-Ethylene pipeline construction project Central Ethane-Ethylene pipeline map Source: NPC Source: NPC

  47. 3.Outlook and plan • (1) A development plan • -In ChabaharFTIZ, Mokran petrochemical complex, a hurb of petrochemical industry, are to be constructed • (2) Outlook • -NPC, Petrochemical products supplied 10% more in 206 • -A smooth supply of feedstock due to natural gas expansion • Developments of car, construction/infra sector are a basement to increase domestic demand • China’s economy slow-down, a risk of disruption as uncertain factors • -Outlook for production: focused on increasing production volume of ethylene

  48. Plan to build Mokran petrochemical complex as a hurb in Chabahar FTIZ Locations of FTIZ Blueprint for Mokran complex Source: NPC Source: NMDC

  49. Outlook for the Industry Outlook for production & consumption of Natural Gas (2014~2021) Factors related to petrochemical products consumption (2014~2020) Source: PMI Source: NMDC

  50. Capacity: focused on increasing productions of ethylene Trends and forecasts of Olefin produced (2014~2018) Source: BMI, NPC

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