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DCEC July 2011

BAE Systems Australia Tracey Clavell Head of Estimating and Pricing – Corporate Defence Cost Estimating Conference Adelaide July 2011. DCEC July 2011. Quotes from Wikipedia.

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DCEC July 2011

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  1. BAE Systems AustraliaTracey ClavellHead of Estimating and Pricing – CorporateDefence Cost Estimating Conference Adelaide July 2011 DCEC July 2011 Commercial in Confidence

  2. Quotes from Wikipedia • Estimation is the calculatedapproximation of a result which is usable even if input data may be incomplete or uncertain. • In statistics, • estimation theory and estimator, for topics involving inferences about probability distributions • forecasting and prediction, for estimation of yet-to-be observed quantities • In mathematics, approximation or estimation typically means finding upper or lower bounds of a quantity that cannot readily be computed precisely Commercial in Confidence

  3. End to End Estimating at BAE Systems Australia Commercial in Confidence

  4. Cradle to Grave Estimating DCP Pre Contract 1st Pass 2nd Pass FIS Post Contract Design Subcontracts / Suppliers VOP PBC Subcontracts / Suppliers CCP &EAC’s VOP PBC Processes Techniques & Metrics Tools People & Professionalisation Commercial in Confidence

  5. Estimating Techniques • Top Down Vs Bottom up • Multiple Methods • Metrics • Risk and Uncertainty • Three Point Estimating DCEC July 2011 Commercial in Confidence

  6. Multiple methods of Estimating Little Confidence 1 method per bid More Confidence Multiple methods per bid Parametric Parametric Detailed Analogous Detailed Analogy DCEC July 2011 Commercial in Confidence 6

  7. True Planning – Top Down Parametric Estimating DCEC July 2011 Commercial in Confidence 7

  8. Types of Parametric Estimating • Should Costs for Subcontracts / Suppliers • Design for Cost • Cost as an Independent Variable • Top Down Validation • Cost Benefit Analysis DCEC July 2011 Commercial in Confidence

  9. Benefits of Parametric Estimating • Supports Bid / No Bid decisions • Supports Strategic Reform Program • To validate / challenge Subcontractor quotes • Supports initial design costing • Additional validation point for other methods • Quicker to generate ROMs and Indicative Pricing DCEC July 2011 Commercial in Confidence

  10. Parametric Journey Thus Far Evaluation of Software License & trg Maturity True Planning plus ICT trg & Licenses Logistics Training & Licences Tool Calibration Hardware trg & Licenses Demand 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 Commercial in Confidence DCEC July 2011

  11. People and Developing Capability Standard Position Descriptions Developing You Program Competency Matrix Career Ladder External membership and accreditation Diversity and Inclusion Mentoring and Leadership DCEC July 2011 Commercial in Confidence

  12. Estimating & Pricing Tools • True Planning - Parametric Estimating • Phoenix - Estimating Capture Tool • Open Plan – Scheduling • ProPricer – Pricing Tool • Predict – Risk Collation and Monte Carlo DCEC July 2011 Commercial in Confidence

  13. Phoenix – Estimating Capture Tool DCEC July 2011 Commercial in Confidence 13

  14. Lessons Learned • DAREO • Stability & Sensitivity • Management of the Supply Chain • Indexation & Cost Principles • Demonstrate Value for Money • Performance Based Contracting DCEC July 2011 Commercial in Confidence 14

  15. End to End Estimating – Getting the Balance Right Commercial in Confidence

  16. All Done Any Questions ? DCEC July 2011 Commercial in Confidence 16

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