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The CEDSS Model and the Scottish case study

The CEDSS Model and the Scottish case study . Gary Polhill and Nick Gotts. Outline. The CEDSS model Stakeholder Advisory Group input Demonstration of the CEDSS model Data sources, refining the model Future scenarios for CEDSS. The CEDSS Model.

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The CEDSS Model and the Scottish case study

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  1. The CEDSS Model and the Scottish case study Gary Polhill and Nick Gotts

  2. Outline • The CEDSS model • Stakeholder Advisory Group input • Demonstration of the CEDSS model • Data sources, refining the model • Future scenarios for CEDSS

  3. The CEDSS Model • Community Energy Demand Social Simulator • Households located in a street-network, making decisions about buying energy-using and energy-saving appliances and equipment. • Households’ energy use, and expenditure on energy and energy-related equipment, is tracked over time. • Data for runs of the model covering the period 2000-2010 is drawn from a range of publicly-available sources, and from the first (2010) GILDED survey. • Runs covering the period 2010-2050 are in preparation.

  4. Stakeholder Advisory Group Input April 2010 SAG meeting Demoof prototype model followed by Knowledge Elicitation Exercise: • Post-it session • Discussion of post-its • Opportunity to add new post-its • Index card sorting exercise 1: • Categories that made sense to participants • Index card sorting exercise 2: • Ontological categories predefined by us • Entities • Processes • Relationships • Attributes “Using the picture as a guide, identify anything associated with household energy use or household energy activities”

  5. Index Card Sorting 1

  6. Index Card Sorting 2

  7. Ontology from the index cards

  8. Ontology from another meeting in Budapest

  9. Demonstration of the CEDSS model

  10. Refining the CEDSS Model Input data Calibration data Free parameters GILDED survey DECC statistics Comparison CEDSS Results ONS statistics Comparison SG statistics Validation data Argos catalogues Etc.

  11. CEDSS Future Scenarios Input data Free parameters GILDED survey (starting point) ECscenarios (fuel prices) CEDSS Results OECD/IEA Projections (energy savings) Policy Implications Peer-reviewed papers (appliance Prices, efficiency)

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