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A GAS FLOW MODEL FOR THE NTS NETWORK

Presentation on the development of a gas flow model for the NTS network, aimed at improving users' understanding of NTS capability and providing a transparent and easy-to-use system. The model uses up-to-date NTS data, offers a web-based PC interface, and provides fast results. Funding options for Phase 1 are being explored.

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A GAS FLOW MODEL FOR THE NTS NETWORK

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  1. A GAS FLOW MODEL FOR THE NTS NETWORK MELVIN BROWN CLAUDIA CENTAZZO JOGT Meeting, London, 5 June 2008

  2. Presentation outline • Presentation of our outline for the model • Presentation of the way forward • Hear about the users requirements • Discuss the way of engagement and the follow-up mechanism

  3. Smith Institute – who are we? • The Smith Institute is a not-for-profit organisation • We solve problems using mathematical modelling • We work in a range of industrial sectors including energy and we have previous experience of working with Government and regulatory bodies as well as a wide variety of companies • We have been commissioned by Ofgem to conduct a feasibility study on an independent gas flow model for the NTS • The model is being presented today as a development & desktop implementation opportunity for NTS users

  4. St. Fergus user A user D Teesside user C Burton Point Rough Barrow user B Easington Theddlethorpe Bacton NTS configuration demand Motivation - interactions of user supply, demand & NTS capability • Users’ perspective: • interactions through NG • overheads & time • restricting user ability to explore/understand NTS capability • NTS capability under utilised • => Model directed towards needs of users and easily accessible to them

  5. St. Fergus Terminals Compressors Regulators Teesside Burton Point Rough Barrow Easington Theddlethorpe Bacton Gas flow model - aims • Provide users with: • improved understanding of NTS capability and its technical capacity • desktop interaction with constraints & opportunities • a transparent and easy system to use • In particular: • to identify entry capacity options N months in the future for a range of demand scenarios

  6. St. Fergus Terminals Compressors Regulators Teesside Burton Point Rough Barrow Easington Theddlethorpe Bacton Gas flow model - advantages • Key features of the proposed model • uses NTS data • Up-to-date - present and planned • range of demand scenarios • easy for you to use • web-based PC interface • fast • feasibility of entry capacity options returned in ~ minutes • validated against NG NTS data • part of support & maintenance • User based forum for interaction with NTS & NG • Alternative • sophisticated network software (e.g. SynerGEE, FALCON) • detailed system knowledge & high overheads • correspondence without NTS interaction

  7. Gas flow model – users’ view User k For each demand scenario: revise to ‘nearby’ supply vector NTS constraints violated

  8. Gas flow model – behind the scenes NTS data & constraints NG Explore NTS capability NG: TYS etc users Users: supply & demand vectors

  9. Gas flow model - in practice Secure model & web server NTS data NG User queries and responses Users, NG, others? NTS data updates Users – model interaction Model development testing & release System admin, testing & maintenance

  10. Development of the follow-on process Driven by users • Phase 1: steady state entry and exit capacities, including line-pack off-take/supply for a range of demand scenarios; NG TYS as a starting point • Phase 2: dynamic - flexibility to model the variation of demand during the day (hourly) • Phase 3: modelling costs of new capacities, fuel usage and effects of new entry/exit points – forecasting tool

  11. Gas flow model – development cycle • For each phase: • Requirements • User, data, technical, security, maintenance • Design and implementation • Testing – including users • Release • Maintenance

  12. Development of follow-on process – Phase 1 We are here to explore the funding options forPhase 1 with the gas industry as starting point. Phase 1 (steady state model) will involve: • development of model, • implementation and testing in IT system, • service delivery to users desktops (plus maintenance and users support) We have held initial discussions with a commercial organisation (Tessella, www.tessella.com) to partner on b) and c) • Cost: ~ £250-300k • Time scale: ~10 months from commitment of funds from the industry • Further: licence arrangements for users

  13. Open discussion We welcome your views …

  14. Contact details • Melvin.Brown@smithinst.co.uk • Claudia.Centazzo@smithinst.co.uk • 07917 697914 • www.smithinst.co.uk

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