The next revolution in Energy Technology

1. The next revolution in Energy Technology Energy Summit 2006Cisco Systems, San Jose21 July, 2006

2. “Transitions to Sustainable Energy” The world has a clear and major problem, with no global consensus on the way to proceed: how to achieve transitions to an adequately affordable, sustainable clean energy supply” Co-chairs: Jose Goldemberg, Brazil, Secretary of State for the Environment of the State of São Paolo.Steven Chu, USA

3. 2 x CO2 4 x CO2 Computer simulations by the Princeton Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab for CO2 increases above pre-industrial revolution levels: 2x CO2: 3 – 5° C 4x CO2 : 6 - 10° C Pre-industrial: ~275 ppmToday: ~380 ppm

5. For a Gaussian distribution: 1  = 68 % confidence level 2  = 95.4% confidence level 3  = 99.7% confidence level

6. Unstable Glaciers Surface melt on Greenland ice sheet descending into moulin, a vertical shaft carrying the water to base of ice sheet. Source: Roger Braithwaite

7. CO2 We are here Temperature over the last 420,000 years Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

8. Energy demand vs. GDP per capita

9. CO2 emissions depends on the energy source

10. A dual strategy is needed to solve the energy problem: • Conservation: maximize energy efficiency and minimize energy use, while insuring economic prosperity • Develop new sources of clean energy

11. The Demand side of theEnergy Solution

12. Art Rosenfeld turns his attention to the energy problem The Rosenfeld Effect

13. Regulation stimulates technology: Refrigerator efficiency standards and performance. The expectation of efficiency standards also stimulated industry innovation

14. United States Refrigerator Use (Actual) and Estimated Household Standby Use v. Time 2000 Estimated Standby 1800 Power (per house) 1600 1400 Refrigerator Use per 1978 Cal Standard Unit 1200 1987 Cal Standard 1000 1980 Cal Standard Average Energy Use per Unit Sold (kWh per year) 800 1990 Federal 600 Standard 400 1993 Federal Standard 2001 Federal 200 Standard 0 2003 2005 2007 2009 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1999 2001 1947 1949 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1995 1997 “Vampire” drains on energy

15. US Electricity Use of Refrigerators and Freezers compared to sources of electricity 800 Nuclear 700 600 500 Billion kWh per year 400 Conventional 150 M Refrig/Freezers Hydro 300 at 1974 eff at 2001 eff Used 50 Million 2 kW Existing Renewables 200 PV Systems Used 3 Gorges Dam Saved 100 0

16. The Value of Energy Saved and Produced. (assuming cost of generation = $.03/kWh and cost of use = $.085/kWh) 25 Nuclear Dollars Saved from 150 M Refrig/Freezers 20 at 2001 efficiency 50 Million 2 kW 15 PV Systems Billion $ per year Conventional 10 Hydro ANWR Existing 5 3 Gorges Dam Renewables 0

17. Potential supply-side solutions to the Energy Problem • Coal, tar sands, shale oil, … • Fusion • Fission • Wind • Solar photocells • Bio-mass

19. Potential supply-side solutions to the Energy Problem • Coal, tar sands, shale oil, … • Fusion • Fission • Wind • Solar photocells • Bio-mass

20. Berkeley Lab 200-acre site Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory3,800 employees, ~$520 M / year budget 10 Nobel Prize winners were/are employees of LBNL, and at least one more “in the pipeline” Today: 59 employees in the National Academy of Sciences,18 in the National Academy of Engineering,2 in the Institute of Medicine UC BerkeleyCampus

21. Cellulose-degrading microbes Cellulose Plants Engineered photosynthetic microbes and plants Methanol Ethanol Hydrogen Hydrocarbons Artificial Photosynthesis PV Electrochemistry Electricity Helios: Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory’s attack on the energy problem

22. Bell Laboratories 15 scientists who worked at AT&T Bell laboratories received Nobel Prizes.

24. Bardeen Materials Science Theoretical and experimental physics - Electronic structure of semiconductors - Electronic surface states - p-n junctions Brittain Shockley

25. Helios metrics for success Fuels • Address showstoppers as quickly as possible. • Move on as soon as the potential solution will not scale properly. • Constantly re-access milestones and goals: Failure is an option.

26. Is it possible to develop a new class of durable solar cells with high efficiency at 1/5 to 1/10th the cost of existing technology?

27. Distributed Junction Solar Cells • Creation of electron-hole charges • Conduction of charge carriers to electrodes Paul Alivisatos, Associate Lab Director, Physical Sciences and Division Director, Material Sciences Tetrapod nanoparticle

28. Distributed Junction Solar Cells Introduced by Heeger and coworkers in 1994. Two nano-scale components used to generate exciton creation, charge separation and conduction to electrodes. Many losses when charges are trapped at dead ends within the random network. Problems of charge collection are exacerbated due to the fact the mobilities in the organic media are low, and the holes move much faster than the electrons.

29. Organized Channel Junction Solar Cells • Spatially organize the electron-hole transport pathways into an array of vertical columns. Solution phase growth of vertically aligned nanowire arrays as electron transport media • Formation of a liquid crystal phase consisting of colloidal nanorods or nanotubes. • Alignment of block copolymers • Hierarchical Junction Solar Cells using organic dendrimers

31. ~13 B ha of land in the Earth • 1.5 B ha for crops • 3.5 B ha for pastureland • 0.5 B ha are “built up” • 7.5 B ha are forest land or “other”

32. temp/water limitation Rad/water limitation Temp/water limitation

34. Source: US Dept of Agriculture

35. Petroleum Use Courtesy Dan Kammen analysis

36. Greenhouse Gases Courtesy Dan Kammen analysis

37. Cellulose 40-60% Percent Dry Weight Hemicellulose 20-40% Lignin 10-25% Improved conversion of cellulose into chemical fuel Self-fertilizing,drought and pest resistant The majority of a plant is structural material Sunlight CO2,H20, Nutrients Chemical energy Biomass

38. Advantages of perennial species: • higher annualized photosynthesis • nutrient conservation

39. Miscanthus yields: 30 dry tons/acre • 100 gallons of ethanol / dry ton possible  3,000 gal/acre. • 100 M out of 450 M acres  ~300 B gal / year of ethanol • US consumption (2004) = 141 B gal of gasoline ~ 200 B gal of ethanol / year • US also consumes 63 B gal diesel > 1% conversion efficiency may be feasible.

40. Cellulose (40 – 60% of dry mass) • Linear polymer of the glucose-glucose dimer • Hydrolysis  glucose (6C sugar)  ethanol • Hemicellulose (20 -40%) • Highly branched, short chain, 5C and 6C sugars such as xylose arabinose, galactose Fermentation of hemicellulose in infancy(Ethanol substituted for other hydrocarbon e.g. butanol, octanes, etc. ?) • Lignin (10 – 25%) • Does not lead to simple sugar molecules

42. “The large coal deposits of the Carboniferous primarily owe their existence to two factors… the appearance of bark-bearing trees (and in particular the evolution of the bark fiber lignin) [and] the development of extensive lowland swamps and forests in North America and Europe. It has been hypothesized that large quantities of wood were buried during this period because animals and decomposing bacteria had not yet evolved that could effectively digest the new lignin.”

43. From Christopher Somerville, IAC workshop, 2006

44. Commercial ethanol production from cellulose The biggest energy gains will come from improved fuel production from cellulose/lignin

45. Microbial Production of Bio-fuels and Synthetic Biology Jay Keasling Director, Physical Biosciences Division Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory & Depts. of Chemical Engineering & Bioengineering University of California, Berkeley

46. Malaria • Caused by Plasmodium, a single-cell protozoan • Transmitted by Anopheles mosquito • Destroys red blood cells • Plasmodium in South America and Southeast Asia is largely resistant to chloroquine – based drugs

47. Identify the biosynthesis pathways in A. annua Synthetic Biology:Production of artemisinin in bacteriaJay Keasling

48. Research, Development & Delivery Institute for OneWorld Health Amyris Biotechnologies Keasling Laboratory

49. Artemisinin costs

50. Identify the biosynthesis pathways in A. annua Synthetic Biology:Production of artemisinin in bacteriaJay Keasling Can synthetic organisms be engineered to produce ethanol, butanol or more suitable hydrocarbon fuel?