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U.S. Quarterly GDP by Industry Accounts: Methods and Research Results

U.S. Quarterly GDP by Industry Accounts: Methods and Research Results. Brian C. Moyer. 13th OECD-NBS Workshop on National Accounts Haikou, China November 30 – December 4, 2009. Motivation. Higher frequency industry data for business cycle and policy analysis

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U.S. Quarterly GDP by Industry Accounts: Methods and Research Results

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  1. U.S. Quarterly GDP by Industry Accounts: Methods and Research Results Brian C. Moyer 13th OECD-NBS Workshop on National Accounts Haikou, China November 30 – December 4, 2009

  2. Motivation • Higher frequency industry data for business cycle and policy analysis • New price and quantity measures in a NIPA framework provide an industry breakout of quarterly GDP growth • Available shortly after the 3rd estimate of quarterly GDP from the NIPAs • New information to improve the NIPAs

  3. Why now? • Framework established through recent integration of BEA’s annual I-O and GDP by industry accounts • Combined best available source data using quality weighting • Provided consistent measures of output, inputs, and value added by industry • Accelerated availability of annual I-O accounts • Higher-frequency source data now available • Census Bureau’s quarterly surveys • Bureau of Labor Statistics’ price indexes

  4. Overview of methods • Benchmarked to the annual I-O and GDP by industry accounts • Extrapolations of nominal output and value added based on: • Receipts, shipments, and sales from the Census Bureau • Income-by-Industry data from the NIPAs • Wage and salary data from the BLS • Estimates of final expenditures indirectly measured using “commodity flow” method • Based on ratios of domestic supply • International trade data from the Census Bureau • Inventory data from the NIPAs • Statistics prepared in a balanced I-O framework

  5. Overview of methods • Real value added based on double deflation, where output and inputs are deflated separately • Deflation of nominal output and inputs using: • Producer price indexes • PCE implicit price deflators • International price indexes • Implicit price indexes based on industrial production indexes • Domestic and imported inputs deflated separately • Aggregation using Fisher formulas, including contributions to GDP price and quantity growth

  6. Research results • Real value added for “All industries” tracks well with real GDP • Industry composition provides good indication of: • Direction of change • Acceleration/Deceleration • Growth relative to trend • Results are sensitive to business cycle fluctuations

  7. Real GDP for “All industries”

  8. Case study: Wholesale trade

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