POLS 373 Foundations of Comparative Politics

1. POLS 373 Foundations of Comparative Politics Week 4, October 17, 2006 Strategies of Comparative Analysis (con’t) The Mixed Design Banality of Ethnic War

2. Strategies of Comparative Analysis • The Mixed Design • Involves a combination of several research design and strategies--a mixture--used simultaneously within the context of single research project • In principle, this is really the best type of comparative research strategy to adopt

3. Strategies of Comparative Analysis • The Mixed Design: Example from Skocpol • No. 1: “France, Russia and China will serve as three positive cases of successful social revolution, and I shall argue that these cases reveal similar causal patterns despite their many other differences.” • This is an example of ______________________?

4. Strategies of Comparative Analysis • The Mixed Design: Example from Skocpol • No. 2: “In addition, I shall invoke negative cases for the purpose of validating various particular parts of the causal argument…. Thus, for example, the abortive Russian Revolution of 1905 will be contrasted with the successful Revolution of 1917 in order to validate arguments about the crucial contribution to social-revolutionary success in Russia of war-related processes that led to the breakdown of state repressive capacities.” • This is an example of ______________________?

5. Strategies of Comparative Analysis • The Mixed Design: Example from Skocpol • No. 3: “Moreover, selected aspects of English, Japanese, and German history will be used in various places to strengthen arguments about the causes of revolutionary political crises and peasant revolts in France, Russia, and China. These cases are suitable as contrasts because they were comparable countries that underwent non-revolutionary political crises and transformations in broadly similar terms and circumstances to France, Russia, and China.” • This is an example of ______________________?

6. Strategies of Comparative Analysis • The Mixed Design: Example from Skocpol • Summary of Skocpol’s Mixed Design • MDS design using three primary cases • MSS design and within-case comparison using Russia • MDS, Multiple unit comparison (three or more units) using secondary cases: England, Japan, and Germany • (Implicit strategy) Individual case studies using analytical induction

7. Strategies of Comparative Analysis • The Mixed Design: A Methodological Exercise • Gun violence is a complicated issue, but one for which a mixed research design would be very appropriate. • So, how might we go about setting up a mixed research design?

8. Strategies of Comparative Analysis • The Mixed Design: A Methodological Exercise • What do we need to do first? • Short answer: Research, and lots of it.

9. Strategies of Comparative Analysis Statistics on homicide rates and gun ownership in 24 countries (various years) What cases should we compare?

10. Strategies of Comparative Analysis Statistics on homicide rates in selected cities (Source: Home Office, United Kingdom) What cases should we compare? http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs2/hosb502.pdf

11. Strategies of Comparative Analysis Statistics on homicide rate in the United States, 1900-2002 (Source: Bureau of Justice) What do these statistics tell us? http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/homicide/homtrnd.htm

12. Strategies of Comparative Analysis Statistics on homicides in the U.S. (Source: Bureau of Justice) What do these statistics tell us? http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/homicide/homtrnd.htm

13. Strategies of Comparative Analysis • More Practice: Stupid in America? • Consider the following questions: • What is the reporter’s central thesis? • How does he use comparisons? • Is the argument persuasive? • As a comparativist, what would you do to evaluate the argument? Source: http://abcnews.go.com/2020/Stossel/story?id=1500338

14. Strategies of Comparative Analysis • More Practice: Stupid in America? Key Points • “American schools don't teach as well as schools in other countries because they are government monopolies, and monopolies don't have much incentive to compete” • “In Belgium, by contrast, the money is attached to the kids it's a kind of voucher system. Government funds education at many different kinds of schools but if a school can't attract students, it goes out of business.”

15. Strategies of Comparative Analysis • DISCUSSION OF “BANALITY OF ETHNIC WAR” BY MUELLER • Let’s begin with some questions …

16. Banality of Ethnic War | Discussion • Q: What is Mueller’s central argument?

17. Banality of Ethnic War | Discussion • Mueller’s Position: See reading or in-class notes

18. Banality of Ethnic War | Discussion Questions: • How does Mueller go about supporting the argument that he makes? • What type of comparative research design does he use?

19. Banality of Ethnic War | Discussion Mueller’s Comparative Strategy? Is it … • Case study in comparative perspective • Binary analysis • Multi-unit (3+) analysis • Within-case comparison • Analytical induction • Mixed design

20. Banality of Ethnic War | Discussion • Although there might be some debate on Mueller’s comparative strategy, it is fairly clear that he is primarily using … • The case study in comparative perspective

21. Banality of Ethnic War | Discussion • What makes his strategy a case study in comparative perspective? • Mueller’s main focus is the violence that took place in the former Yugoslavia; he uses Rwanda (1994) as an explicit secondary case

22. Banality of Ethnic War | Discussion • Does Mueller follow the two “rules” of the case study in comparative perspective? • To refresh your memory, these are: • (1) to see case in relation to others; and • (2) to aim at generalization

23. Banality of Ethnic War | Discussion • Does Mueller follow the two “rules” of the case study in comparative perspective? • The answer is clearly “yes” on both counts • Mueller use of Rwanda demonstrates his clear intention to see Yugoslavia in relation to others; moreover, he points out that his reason for using Rwanda is to “explore the possibilities for generalizing from the Yugoslav experience …”.

24. Banality of Ethnic War | Discussion • Next important methodological question: • What basic logic underlies his comparison of Yugoslavia and Rwanda? • That is, is the author’s comparison based on an MSS or and MDS design?

25. Banality of Ethnic War | Discussion • It is fairly easy to discern that Mueller is using an MDS design. • Specifically, Mueller assumes that Yugoslavia and Rwanda are two very different places: different cultures; different political systems; different history of ethnic relations; different geopolitical position; and so on. At the same time, Mueller tells us that there are two key similarities.

26. Banality of Ethnic War | Discussion • What are the similarities? • Independent Variable: The existence of vicious, opportunistic, but substantially non-ideological criminals and criminal-like elements • Dependent variable:An extremely brutal outbreak of societal wide violence

27. Banality of Ethnic War | Discussion • What conclusions, methodologically speaking, can we draw from Mueller’s argument? • Conclusion #1: See in-class notes

28. Banality of Ethnic War | Discussion • How about the quality, sufficiency, and relevance of the evidence Mueller uses? • Almost all of Mueller’s evidence is based on secondary sources, and mostly other academic or scholarly articles. Mueller also used some newspaper accounts and a UN-prepared report (which may have been based on some primary source material) • Are they any problems with relying almost exclusively on secondary sources?

29. Banality of Ethnic War | Discussion • What conclusions, empirically speaking, can we draw from Mueller’s argument? • Conclusion #2: See in-class notes

30. Banality of Ethnic War | Discussion • From a theoretical view, Mueller does not discount “ethnicity” completely, but he argues that it served as an ordering device as opposed to causal factor in and of itself. • What does this mean? What is an “ordering device”?

31. Banality of Ethnic War | Discussion • Key point about ordering devices: Mueller suggests that, were there not ethnic differences in either case, those who encouraged the conflict would have (and did, to a limited extent) simply used another available ordering device. • Thiscould have been class (i.e., pitting the poor against the rich); loyalty to a particular soccer team (as happened in Rwanda); regional ties; political affiliation; and so on.