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HDI trends

HDI trends. Poverty headcount ( based on national poverty line; not $1/day ). Actual. Required. 13%. Under-five mortality rate. 47. U5MR trends 1990-2006. 1990: All: 76 / Pak: 130 2006: All: 55 / Pak: 97. U5MR in 06. n=190. U5MR in 1990. U5MR by quintile.

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HDI trends

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  1. HDI trends

  2. Poverty headcount (based on national poverty line; not $1/day) Actual Required 13%

  3. Under-five mortality rate 47

  4. U5MR trends 1990-2006 1990: All: 76 / Pak: 130 2006: All: 55 / Pak: 97 U5MR in 06 n=190 U5MR in 1990

  5. U5MR by quintile

  6. Net primary enrollment ratio 100%

  7. Almost 1 in 10 children die before age 5; little changed since 2000 39% of deliveries by a health professional Supplementation of breast milk starts early Proportion of children fully immunized 47% in 2006; down from 53% in 2001 44% of ever-married women have heard of AIDS Contraceptive prevalence rate plateau-ed at 30% Total fertility rate high at 4.1 – ‘population dividend’ DHS 2006/07: highlights

  8. Pakistan: selected indicators by maternal education Avg=44% Avg=39% Avg=47%

  9. Next Asian Tiger or failed state? • Serious economic turbulence ahead • Unsustainable deficits – trade, budget, energy, water • Under-investment in basic services • Recent growth spurt is ending; led to bubbles in real estate, KSE, consumer demand • ‘Growth without development’ – limited structural change & little trickle-down • Polarized society – many dimensions

  10. Democratic or autocratic ? • Sickly democracy in Asia: 2006 saw military coups in Thailand & Fiji; 2007 saw non-elected caretaker gov. in Bangladesh & state of emergency in Pakistan • EIU rank of 27 Asian countries (2007): 16 ‘flawed democracies’; 10 ‘authoritarian’; 1 ‘full democracy’ • Democratic practice within political parties is poor. Dynastic parties are symptom thereof • Democracy in Pakistan will continue to wobble – ‘muddling through’ • Space needed to make it ‘home-grown’

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