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The Impact of Demographic Change

The Impact of Demographic Change. Møna 1000 15. March 2010. Paul Rivlin: Arab Economies in the 21st Century. ”The Arab world has been the fastest growing demographic region in the world for the last fifty years... ... and will continue to be so over the next fifty years” (p. 12).

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The Impact of Demographic Change

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  1. The Impact of Demographic Change Møna 1000 15. March 2010

  2. Paul Rivlin: Arab Economies in the 21st Century • ”The Arab world has been the fastest growing demographic region in the world for the last fifty years... ... and will continue to be so over the next fifty years” (p. 12)

  3. Population growth • MENA population 4 times more in 50 years • 1950: Total population 100 mill. • 2004: 443 mill. • Arab population, 1950: 73 mill. • 2005: 307 mill. • Population growth rate in Arab states: • 1950-1975: 2.5% • 1975-2000: 2.75% Only sub-Saharan Africa grew more rapidly (Richards & Waterbury)

  4. Causes • Health improvements reduces death rates • Birth rates take time to ”adjust” • Until 1985: population growth accelerated • Growth rates fell from 3.4% in 1985 2.7% in 1992 2.2% in 2003 • Birth-rates remain the world’s second highest

  5. Fertility • Traditionally high fertility rates in MENA => Peasant & herder societies => low female education&employment => Early marriage common • 1950s: highest fertility rates in the world • Early 1980s: women average of six children each • Today: between three and four • Since 1990s: fastest decline in the world

  6. Regional variation • Demographic transition earlier in North Africa • Tunisia promoting family planning since 1965 (fertility rates 7 in 1956, 3.8 in 1992 and 2 in 2003) • 1970s: Moroccan fertility rates falling (following phosphates collapse) • Pronatalist policies in face of external threats or war (Iran 1980s, Iraq under SH, Syria, Kuwait, Israel) • A fertility revolution in Iran (from 7 in 1986 to 2.8 in 1996 and 2 today)

  7. Consequences • Changing age structure of the population - Youth waves: Nearly half the population in the region under 20 years old • Pressure on educational systems • Rapid increase in number of job seekers - 1970-2000: Arab labor force increased 2.8-fold - MENA growth rate will remain highest in the world through at least 2020 • Labor force growing much more quickly than demand for labor

  8. The labor market • An unusual set of challenges (Rivlin): • The fastest labor-force growth rate • The lowest female labor-force participation-rate • The largest share of public sector employment • The (second?) highest unemployment rate

  9. Unemployment • Unemployment rate - 13.2% - world’s highest Total number of unemployed exceeds 20 mill. • Greater in cities than countryside • Mainly afflicting the youth (25%) • Hits educated workers hardest • Higher for women than for men

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