unisdr

1. Briefing of Permanent Missions in New York on DRR in ASEAN Jerry Velasquez, Ph.D.SeniorRegional CoordinatorInternational Strategy for Disaster ReductionUnited Nations Secretariat in Asia Pacific (UNISDR) www.unisdr.org

2. Rationale

4. Catastrophe losses are mostly borne by governments and households in developing countries…

5. …Partly because the private property insurance market is under-developed • In Indonesia • Earthquake insurance available for corporate and commercial customers (although low penetration) and almost non-existent for residential dwellings • 2% of property policies have EQ coverage …Partly because risks are not well understood

6. HFA Report 2007-2009

7. HFA Priority Area 1: GovernanceEnsure that disaster risk reduction is a national and local priority with strong institutional basis for implementation

8. HFA Priority Area 2: Risk identificationIdentify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning

9. HFA Priority Area 3: KnowledgeUse knowledge , innovation and education to build a culture of safety and resilience at all levels

10. HFA Priority Area 4: Vulnerability ReductionReducing the underlying risk factors

11. HFA Priority Area 5Strengthen disaster preparedness for effective response

12. Background and Method

13. What is risk? Risk can be defined by a probability distribution (empirical data) Example: What is the risk of more than 20 deaths per million? 40%

14. Country Risk Profiles: Criteria Assessment conducted - hazard-specific and country-level perspectives Reported disaster data for various hazards (EM-DAT) - used for risk assessment Physical and social settings of each country - provided in brief EM-DAT criteria for recording a disaster event 10 or more people reported killed 100 people reported affected Declaration of a state emergency Call for international assistance

15. Comparing Disaster Loss Databases

16. Country ProfilePhilippines as an Example

17. Philippines: Socio-economic impacts and trends The number of disaster events is increasing but the total number of deaths are decreasing PHL experience more storms than other hazards and they cause the most number of deaths

18. Philippines: Socio-economic impacts and trends The number of affected population is slightly increasing All hazards affect a large number of population

19. Philippines: Socio-economic impacts and trends Economic damage is increasing rapidly (18 times more since 1970) Floods and storms cause the most economic damage, followed by forest fires

20. The 20-year return period (an event with 5 per cent probability of exceedance) loss for all natural hazards is $1.208 billion (0.37 per cent of GDP PPP), while the 200-year return period (an event with 0.5 per cent probability of exceedance, generally corresponds to a catastrophic event) loss is $2.14 billion (0.66 per cent of GDP PPP).

21. Key Study Findings

22. Key study findings - ASEAN - history of devastating disasters with huge socio-economic losses Almost all types of natural hazards are present, including: Cyclones (tropical strong), floods, landslides, eqs., tsunamis, droughts, forest-fires Cyclonic storm- most dominant disaster, followed by Eqs, tsunamis, floods, epidemics, landslides, droughts, volcanic eruptions and forest-fires During (1970-2009), 1,211 reported disasters have caused 414,927 deaths Disaster Matrix by Country, ASEAN

23. Reported disasters: 36% - floods, 32% - cyclonic storms, 9% -earthquakes,7% - Landslides Quantitative risk assessment performed confirms the following risk patterns: Key study findings…(Cont.)

24. Key Study Findings - Social Vulnerability (SV) Relative SV ranking- estimated based on Av. number of people killed/year/million Period 1970-2009: Myanmar (highest) relative SV, more than 3.5 times that of Indonesia (the second highest) SV ranking: Myanmar (highest) followed by Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, Lao PDR, Cambodia, and Malaysia Comparative analysis of social vulnerability for ASEAN

25. Key Findings – Economic Vulnerability (EV) Economic vulnerability (EV): measured in terms of likelihood of the economic losses resulting from the various disasters (in terms of relative SV ranking) EV ranking of each country: estimated in terms of likely economic losses that an event with a 200-year return period (0.5% AEP) would impact as a % of country GDP Myanmar (highest) EV ranking followed by Lao PDR, Indonesia, Cambodia, Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand and Malaysia Due to paucity of economic loss disaster data, the EV analysis could not be carried out for Brunei and Singapore Economic Loss Potential for annual probability of exceedance of 0.5 per cent

26. Status of DRR Initiatives in ASEAN

28. Resilient City Campaign Sign Ups in ASEAN

30. ASEAN-UN Partnership on DRM

31. 3rd ASEAN-UN Summit October 2010, Hanoi, Vietnam

32. Leaders welcomed the adoption of the Joint Declaration on ASEAN-UN Collaboration on Disaster Management and agreed to prepare and implement the “ASEAN-UN Strategic Plan of Action on Disaster Management 2011-2015” Possible consideration at ASEAN Summit in Jakarta, May 2011 ASEAN Summit Outcome

33. Adopted the Joint Declaration on ASEAN-UN Collaboration on Disaster Management Agreed to prepare and implement the “ASEAN-UN Strategic Plan of Action on Disaster Management 2011-2015” First draft to be made by ASEAN Committee on Disaster Management then sent to UN for review Possible consideration at ASEAN Summit in Jakarta, May 2011 ASEAN-UN Summit Outcome

34. To cover Risk and vulnerability assessment Preparedness Early warning and monitoring Prevention and mitigation Response and recovery Aspects of reconstruction and development ASEAN-UN Strategic Plan of Action on Disaster Management 2011-2015

35. Ways Forward

36. Implementing National Action Plans on Disaster Risk Reduction and Strengthening Legal and Institutional Frameworks Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction in Education and Health Sectors Urban Disaster Risk Reduction Public Education, Awareness and Advocacy AADMER Priorities

37. Finish HFA reviews for 2009-2011 and upload the reports before the Global platform in May With 8 of 10 countries having developed Strategic National Action Plans (SNAP), how to convert SNAPs into DRR investment plans How to participate in the resilient cities and the safe schools and hospitals campaign, conduct national launches and follow-up actions and promote peer learning through existing ASEAN exchange activities and meetings Further the implementation of AADMER in climate change context

38. Development of an ASEAN SAFE SCHOOLS PROGRAMME with the possible leadership of Indonesia and Brunei Continue strengthening data collection and sharing for disaster risk assessments to serve planning and decision-making. The development of an ASEAN DRR-CCA programme, promoting linkages between DRR and CCA programmes within ASEAN. An immediate area of such as programme could be disaster risk assessment in the context of climate change projections. Further the implementation of AADMER in climate change context

39. Collaboration between ASEAN and UNISDR in the follow-up of the ASEAN-UN Summit Joint Declaration in Hanoi last year. What are your suggestions to prepare the ASEAN-United Nations Strategic Plan of Cooperation on Disaster Management (2011-2015) and its implementation How to sustain tripartite partnership between ASEAN-UNISDR and Development Partners to support the implementation of the ASEAN-UN Strategic Plan of Cooperation on Disaster Management. Strengthen ASEAN-UN collaboration in Disaster Risk Management

40. With President of Indonesia’s leadership as Chair of ASEAN, encourage participation of ASEAN members states in the GP and highlight their respective achievements Present the ASEAN-UN Strategic Plan on DRM 2011-2015 as an example to the world Present and discuss AADMER as the first legally binding instrument on DRM for future of HFA Global Platform

41. Thank you UNISDR Secretariat Asia Pacific UNESCAP Building - 8th Floor, Section A Rajdamnern Nok Avenue - 10400 Bangkok - Thailand Phone:+66-2-288-2750 Fax:+66-2-288-1050isdr-bkk@un.org