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Winter Season Outlook for the Pacific Northwest: Winter 2009/2010

Winter Season Outlook for the Pacific Northwest: Winter 2009/2010 Acknowledgement: NWS Climate Prediction Center www.cpc.noaa.gov El-Nino Status El Ni ñ o is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

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Winter Season Outlook for the Pacific Northwest: Winter 2009/2010

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  1. Winter Season Outlook for the Pacific Northwest:Winter 2009/2010 Acknowledgement: NWS Climate Prediction Center www.cpc.noaa.gov

  2. El-Nino Status • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. • Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5 above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. • El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

  3. El Niño and “Normal Conditions”

  4. Historical Trends 1982-83 1997-98 2007-08 1998-00 1988-89

  5. Niño Indices: Recent Evolution

  6. Northwest Average Temperatures

  7. Northwest Average Precipitation

  8. Snowfall

  9. Full Season Temperature Outlook

  10. Full Season PrecipitationOutlook

  11. In Summary • ‘El Nino’ conditions are occurring and expected to continue through the cool season • Can expect this Winter to be (on average): • Temperature – increased odds on warmer than normal conditions • Precipitation – increased odds on below average conditions • Mountain Snowpack – increased odds at a below average snowpack • Can always expect some significant winter weather in the Pacific Northwest!

  12. Significant Winter Weather Relative to ENSO Phase • Major floods • ENSO neutral • La Niña • El Niño (Nov 2006) • Major wind storms • La Niña • ENSO neutral • El Niño (Dec 2006 – Hannakah Eve Wind Storm) • Lowland snow events • La Niña • ENSO neutral • El Niño  (Nov 2006 – Monday Night Football ) Snoqualmie River…..er – Lake?

  13. Stay Up To Date NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues its seasonal forecast update on the third Thursday of each month. Winter weather outlook can be found at: www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/ or via our web site headline atwww.weather.gov/seattle

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