The Third Person Effect and Social Identity: Young Voters Perceptions of Media Influence in the 2004 U.S. Presidential C

1. The Third Person Effect and Social Identity:Young Voters' Perceptions of Media Influencein the 2004 U.S. Presidential Campaign Cynthia Hoffnerand Raiza RehkoffDepartment of CommunicationGeorgia State UniversityUSA

2. The Third Person Effect Perceptual component (Third person perceptions; TPPs) The comparison other � the �third person� Social distance/Group membership Assumptions/beliefs about the �other� Type of media/Type of perceived effect Negative vs. positive content Social desirability of presumed effects Behavioral component Censorship Other behavioral consequences rarely examined e.g., earthquake preparations, mobility, voting intentions

3. Social Identity Theory/Self-Categorization Theory (e.g., Tajfel & Turner, 1979; Turner, 1999) Self-concept is linked to group memberships People accentuate: Similarity to in-group members Differences with out-group members This is enhanced when: Social identity is salient Social identification with the group is strong Several researchers have used SIT/SCT to examine the Third Person Perception in political elections Notably Duck, Hogg, and Terry (e.g., 1995, 1999) This study builds on their work

4. The Context of the Current Study:The 2004 U.S. Presidential Election George W. Bush � Republican versus John Kerry -- Democrat This paper focuses on the role of political identity in the perceived influence of several forms of political media on oneself and other groups, and the behavioral consequences

5. Specifically, we examined: The role of social identity in TPPs Party affiliation perceived effects on in-group vs. out-group (as well as on �average voters�) Strength of political identity (high vs. low) The role of type of media Forms of media that differ in presumed accuracy/bias: Debates, news, �spin,� polls, comedians, candidates� ads The role of TPPs in behavioral outcomes Censorship Voting efficacy & voting intentions

6.  In general, politically affiliated people should perceive larger TPPs for the out-group than the in-group Enhanced for media more biased toward the �other� side Reduced or reversed for media congruent with own group These patterns should be stronger for those who identify more strongly with their political party

7. Additional Predictions for TPPs For comparison others without a specified political affiliation (�average voters�): May be seen as more likely to be influenced by political media than partisan voters Hence largest TPPs for this group In general, larger TPPs for media with less desirable effects �Spin,� polls, comedians, campaign ads (as compared to debates & news)

8. Predictions for Behavioral Outcomes Censorship support and TPPs Based on prior research and SIT/SCT, censorship support should be positively predicted by TPPs for the �average voter� and the out-group Voting intentions/efficacy and TPPs Only a few prior studies, evidence inconsistent TPPs could: Induce a sense of powerlessness and reduce voting intentions Motivate people to vote in order to protect society/enact change

9. Method The original sample: N = 316; Limited to young adults (18-29), registered to vote, and self-identified as Republican or Democrat Final sample: N = 187 Mean age: 20 years 53% Female 59% White, 27% African American 54% Democrats Self-administered questionnaires Within one week prior to the election (Oct 27 to Nov 1) They also completed a post-test within one week after the election (data not yet analyzed)

10. Measures ** All ratings made on scales of 0 to 4 Third Person Perceptions Rated perceived effects of 7 forms of media on voting decisions of: Self, average voters, republicans, democrats Ratings for rep & dem recoded as in-group & out-group based on respondents� political party TPP: Effect on other minus effect on self The seven types of media * Presidential debates * Comedians * Campaign news * Bush ads * The �spin� * Kerry ads * Political polls

11. Measures Political party affiliation: Republican or Democrat Strength of political identity 10 items measured identification with political party (alpha = .91) Perceived election knowledge: Two items (alpha = .82) News exposure TV news, print news Censorship support Support for government regulation of 5 types of political media (alpha = .95) Voting variables: Perceived efficacy of voting (4 items ; alpha = .83) Likelihood of voting

12. ResultsMean Third Person Perceptions for 7 Sources In general, larger TPPs for media typically seen as having more bias/less desirable effects (comedians is the exception): Media Three TPPs Source Combined Debates .31 a News .61 ab �Spin� .99 c Polls 1.02 c Comedians .51 ab Bush ads .76 bc Kerry ads .77 bc

13. ResultsThird Person Perceptions and Group Identity Major Conclusions: TPPs larger for �average voters� than for partisans, but only for Democrats Exception: Bush ads TPPs larger for out-group than in-group, but mainly for Republicans For Democrats, there were larger TPPs for in-group for debates and comedians For candidate�s ads: Larger TPPs for in-group for own candidate�s ads Larger TPPs for out-group for the other candidate�s ads No effects for political identification (high, low)

14. ResultsMean TPPs for 7 Sources & 3 Comparison Groups Average In-group Out-group Voters Voters Voters Presidential Debates Republicans .54 b .25 b .40 b Democrats .37 b .41 b -.10 a Campaign News Coverage Republicans .92 c .35 a .71 bc Democrats .86 c .47 ab .38 ab The �Spin� Republicans 1.35 c .30 a 1.27 bc Democrats 1.29 c .82 b .93 b Political Polls Republicans 1.23 c .72 a 1.14 bc Democrats 1.26 c .89 ab .87 ab Comedians Republicans .92 c .27 ab .92 c Democrats .66 bc .58 b -.15 a Bush Ads Republicans .47 b 1.02 c -.35 a Democrats 1.24 c .52 b 1.44 c Kerry Ads Republicans 1.20 bc .13 a 1.58 c Democrats .85 b .88 b -.03 a

15. ResultsPredicting Behavioral Outcomes Results for TPPs: Higher censorship support = greater TPP for out-group, but not �average voters� Voting efficacy not related to TPPs Lower voting likelihood = greater TPP for �average voters� (p < .08) Other findings: Higher political identity = greater efficacy, more likely to vote Republicans: higher voting efficacy Democrats: more likely to vote

16. ResultsRegression Analyses Predicting Behavioral Outcomes Censorship Voting Voting Support Efficacy Likelihood 1. Gender Pos (Female) --- Pos (Female) Ethnicity Neg (White) --- --- 2. Political party --- Pos (Rep) Neg (Dem) Political identity --- Pos Pos 3. TV news --- --- --- Print news Neg --- [Pos] 4. Perceived election knowledge Neg --- Pos 5. Third person perceptions: Average --- --- [Neg] In-group --- --- --- Out-group Pos --- ---

17. Summary and Interpretations Findings confirm importance of social identity in the perceived influence of the media Results generally consistent with SIT/SCT and prior research Different patterns for the various forms of media (and for the two parties) extends prior research TPPs appeared to be affected by perceptions of others� political beliefs, as well as evaluations of various media types Findings also show that social identity plays a role in the association between TPPs and censorship support Little evidence that TPPs played a role in election outcomes In future analyses we will consider: Perceptions of media bias Own political ideology vs. perceived ideology of other groups Data obtained in a post-test within a week after the election