Space Weather Data and Observations at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center

1. Space Weather Data and Observations at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Terrance G Onsager and Rodney Viereck National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Space Weather Prediction Center

2. Challenge: Predicting the Impacts of the Sun’s Activity Satellite Observations for Future Space Weather Forecasting

3. Space Weather Information Needs Information timeliness: • Long lead-time forecasts (1 to > 3 days) • Short-term warnings (notice of imminent storm) • Alerts and Specifications (current conditions) Space Weather Category: • X-ray flares • Solar energetic particle events • Radiation belt electron enhancements • Geomagnetic storms • Ionospheric disturbances • Neutral density variations

4. Status of Current Space Weather Products M-flare and X-flare Probabilities M-flare and X-flare Probabilities X-ray Flux – Global and Regional Proton and Electron Radiation – Global and Regional Proton and Electron Radiation Probabilities Proton and Electron Radiation Probabilities Geomagnetic Storm Probabilities – Global and Regional Geomagnetic Activity – Global and Regional Geomagnetic Storm Probabilities Ionospheric and Atmospheric Disturbance Probabilities Ionospheric and Atmospheric Disturbances – Global and Regional Disturbance Probabilities – Global and Regional

5. Continuous data reception from the ACE satellite is necessary for real-time alerts of solar storms • DSCOVR (NOAA/NASA/DOD) • Solar wind composition, speed, and direction • Magnetic field strength and direction ESASOHO ● German Aerospace Center ● European Space Agency ● National Institute of Information and Communication Technology, Japan ● Radio Research Agency, Korea ● NOAA ● NASA ● U.S. Air Force L1 NASAACE

6. Challenge: Coordinating Our Worldwide Data Resource NASA STEREO (Ahead) Space-based and ground-based observations of the Sun-Earth environment are being made around the globe • Ground Sites • Magnetometers • Riometers and Neutron • monitors • Telescopes and Magnetographs • Ionosondes • GNSS • SOHO (ESA/NASA) • Solar EUV Images • Solar Corona (CMEs) • COSMIC II (Taiwan/NOAA) • Ionospheric Electron Density Profiles • Ionospheric Scintillation ESA/NASASOHO • ACE (NASA) • Solar wind speed, density, temperature and energetic particles • Vector Magnetic field L1 NASAACE NOAA GOES NOAA POES • GOES (NOAA) • Energetic Particles • Magnetic Field • Solar X-ray Flux • Solar EUV Flux • Solar X-Ray Images • STEREO (NASA) • Solar Corona • Solar EUV Images • Solar wind • Vector Magnetic field • POES (NOAA) • High Energy Particles • Total Energy Deposition • Solar UV Flux NASA STEREO (Behind) Satellite Observations for Future Space Weather Forecasting

7. ACE Satellite • L1 Measurements • Solar wind • Density, speed, temperature, energetic particles • Vector Magnetic Field • The most important set of observations for space weather forecasting • Integral part of the daily forecast process • Provides critical 30-45 minute lead time for geomagnetic storms • Used to drive and verify numerous models

8. NOAA’s FY 2011 Budget

9. Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) Solar Wind Mission • The DSCOVR spacecraft will be refurbished and readied for launch in December 2013 • Satellite and sensors will be transferred to NOAA • Refurbishment of satellite and Plas-Mag sensor will be performed at NASA/GSFC under reimbursement by NOAA • USAF plans to begin acquiring a launch vehicle in 2012 • All data will be downlinked to the Real Time Solar Wind Network (RTSWnet) • DSCOVR Earth science sensors are in the process of being refurbished • A commercial partner will be solicited for the mission to help evaluate the potential of commercial service for a follow-on mission

10. Compact Coronagraph (CCOR) • NOAA and the Naval Research Laboratory are currently collaborating on a Phase A study for a demonstration compact coronagraph • A reimbursable project for sensor development will begin at NRL in FY11 • CCOR is a reduced mass, volume, and cost coronagraph design • 6 kg telescope, 17 kg for sensor • Optical train is 1/3 the length of traditional coronagraph designs • CCOR will fly on DSCOVR if schedule permits • CCOR has been submitted to the DoD Space Test Program (STP) for flight as a back-up strategy if necessitated by schedule

11. COSMIC Follow On (COSMIC 2) • COSMIC begins to degrade in 2011 (end of life) • Significant data reduction expected by 2014-2015 due to loss of satellites • President’s budget supports initial launch of COSMIC 2 in 2014 • Proposed partnership with Taiwan – • Taiwan to provide: 12 spacecraft and integration of payloads onto spacecraft, ground system command & control • NOAA to provide: 12 payloads (receivers), 2 launches, ground system data processing • System will provide 8000+ worldwide atmospheric and 10-12,000 ionospheric soundings per day (all weather, uniform coverage over oceans and land) • Commercial data purchase for enhancement/gap coverage under consideration

12. Observed TEC Rays in 12-hour period (COSMIC)

13. GOES Update: Successful Launch of GOES O and P GOES 15 2010 90W XRS/SXI (Storage) GOES 14 2009 106W Storage GOES 13 2006 75W MAG/EPS GOES 12 2001 60W South America GOES 11 2000 135W Secondary Ops GOES 11/12/13/14/15 IN GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT EARTH ABOUT 1 % OF THE DISTANCE FROM THE EARTH TO THE SUN, ACE IS OUR SPACE WEATHER SENTINEL. EARTH’S MAGNETOSPHERE MOON

14. GOES-R • MPS-low: • electrons/ions 30eV-30 keV 15 bands, 12 look directions • MPS-hi: • electrons 55 keV-4MeV 10 bands, 5 look directions • Protons 80keV-3.2 MeV 9 bands ,5 look directions • SGPS • Protons 1-500 MeV, 10 channels, 2 directions • EHIS • 10-200 MeV/nucleon, 4 mass groups, 1 look direction • Magnetometer • Status • Just finished instrument CDR • Launch expected in 2015 • Developing level 2 algorithms • Integral flux • Density and Temperature moments • Event detection • Magnetopause Crossings

15. New GEO particle product • SEAESRT • Implements O’Brien et al. 2009 anomaly hazard quotients • Surface Charging • Based on Kp • Internal Charging • Based on GOES >2 MeV electron flux • Single Event Upsets • Based on GOES >30 MeV proton flux • Total Dose • Based on GOES >5 MeV proton flux • Publicly available 2010

16. Solar Ultra-Violet Imager (SUVI) • Completely Different than GOES NOP: • GOES NOP SXI observes in x-rays (0.6-6 nm) • SUVI will observe in the Extreme Ultra-Violet (EUV) (10-30 nm) • Narrow band EUV imaging: Permits better discrimination between features of different temperatures • 30.4 nm band adds capability to detect filaments and their eruptions • 6 wavelengths (9.4, 13.1, 17.1, 19.5, 28.4, and 30.4 nm) 2 minute refresh for full dynamic range • SUVI will provide • Flare location information (Forecasting event arrival time and geo-effectiveness) • Active region complexity (Flare forecasting) • Coronal hole specification (High speed solar wind forecasting) • SOHO EIT images currently used as a proxy for SUVI data: • comparable resolution • slower cadence • incomplete spectral coverage • SDO AIA provides improved proxy data: • 16X as many pixels as SUVI • Higher cadence • image in 8 EUV bands, 5 of which match SUVI exactly SDO AIA 30.4 nm

17. GOES R EUVS Improvements Three GOES R EUVS Spectrometers • GOES NOP observed 3 (or 5) broad spectral bands • No spectral information • Difficult to interpret • Impossible to build EUVS- A Channel EUVS- B Channel • GOES R EUVS will take a different approach • Observe three spectral regions with three small spectrometers • Measure the intensity of critical solar lines from various parts of the solar atmosphere • Model the rest of the solar spectrum scaling each spectral line to the ones observed from the same region of the solar atmosphere. EUVS- C Channel GOES 14 Broad Bands 117.5 nm 121.6 nm 133.5 nm 140.5 nm 275 - 285 nm 278.5 nm 25.6 nm 28.4 nm 30.4 nm

18. Continuing LEO Space Weather Programs • Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS): • SEMS will be continued through the end of the POES, DMSP, and Metop C • Solar Irradiance measurements are planned, energetic particle measurements are not planned

19. Seventh Framework Cooperation • Advanced Forecasting for Ensuring Communications Through Space (AFFECTS) • Participants: Germany, Belgium, Ukraine, Norway, United States • Coordinator: Dr. Volker Bothmer, Georg-August-Universität, Germany • Develop a forecasting and early-warning system to mitigate ionospheric effects on navigation and communication systems • - Coordinated analysis of space-based and ground-based measurements • - Development of predictive models of solar and ionospheric disturbances • - Validation of forecast system • Coordination Action for the Integration of Solar System Infrastructures and Science (CASSIS) • Participants: United Kingdom, Belgium, Switzerland, France, United States • Coordinator: Dr. Robert Bentley, University College London • Improve the interoperability of data and metadata to enhance the dissemination and utility of data across interdisciplinary boundaries.

20. RISR-N,S 2011 PFR 2007 SRF 1982 MH 1962 AO 1962 JRO 1963 Transatlantic EU-U.S. Cooperation in the Field of Research Infrastructures • Incoherent Scatter Radar provide key data for scientific understanding and to develop and drive data-assimilation models of the Earth-Space system • Modern ISR also allow continuous, real-time data acquisition that can drive operational models to protect our economic and security infrastructures • Recommendation is to broaden the ISR user community to foster interdisciplinary science across the full Earth-Space environment and explore contribution to operational space weather applications PFR 2007 SRF 1982 SRF 1982 AMISR-Poker Flat MH 1962 MH 1962 AO 1962 AO 1962 JRO 1963 JRO 1963

21. Space Weather in the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Motivation for WMO: • Space Weather impacts the Global Observing System and the WMO Information System • Space Weather affects important economic activities (aviation, satellites, electric power, navigation, etc.) • Synergy is possible with current WMO meteorological services and users, such as sharing observing platforms and issuing multi-hazard warnings • Several WMO Members have Space Weather with Hydro-Met Agency • Effective partnership with International Space Environment Service THE POTENTIAL ROLE OF WMO IN SPACE WEATHER A REPORT ON THE POTENTIAL SCOPE, COST AND BENEFIT OF A WMO ACTIVITY IN SUPPORT OF INTERNATIONAL COORDINATION OF SPACE WEATHER SERVICES, PREPARED FOR THE SIXTIETH EXECUTIVE COUNCIL April 2008

22. Inter-Programme Coordination Team for Space Weather Officially established: 3 May 2010 Membership: - Belgium - Brazil - Canada - China (Co-chair) - Colombia - European Space Agency - Ethiopia - Finland - Japan - International Civil Aviation Organization - Int’l Space Environment Service - International Telecommunication Union - UN Office of Outer Space Affairs - Russian Federation - United Kingdom - United States (Co-chair) WMO Programmes: - Aeronautical Meteorology Programme - Space Programme Terms of Reference: - Standardization and enhancement of Space Weather data exchange and delivery through the WMO Information System (WIS) - Harmonized definition of end-products and services – including quality assurance and emergency warning procedures - Integration of Space Weather observations, through review of space- and surface-based requirements, harmonization of sensor specifications, monitoring observing plans - Encouraging research and operations dialog

23. Summary • • Space weather research and forecasting require coordinated observations from around the globe • • ACE follow-on (DSCOVR) is moving forward. Coronagraph is uncertain on DSCOVR. Globally distributed antennas, with backups, are required. • • Upgraded geosynchronous measurements will soon be available, some LEO capabilities will be lost, next-generation radio-occultation is anticipated. • • International partnerships are increasingly important, and progress is being made.