CLIMATE RESILIENCE – Balancing sound energy initiatives against future challenges

1. CLIMATE RESILIENCE – Balancing sound energy initiatives against future challenges MICHAEL JEFFERSON Professor of International Business and Sustainability, London Metropolitan Business School; and Visiting Professor, Department of Economics and International Studies, University of Buckingham, UK. m.jefferson@londonmet.ac.uk michael.jefferson@buckingham.ac.uk

2. CLIMATIC CHANGE - 1 • Human attribution is complex. • Mean global near surface temperatures have risen 0.76º C since 1900, but with no steady upward pattern apart from the period 1970 – 2000. Since 1970 the centennial rate of increase has been about 1º C. • Atmospheric concentrations of most so-called ‘greenhouse’ gases have risen steadily, especially for carbon dioxide over the past 250 years (by almost 40%). • Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 are, nevertheless, still only 0.039% of the dry atmosphere and other ‘greenhouse’ gases still only 0.004%. • In the total atmosphere water vapour and clouds are believed to account for between 36% and 70% of the ‘greenhouse’ effect; ‘albedo’ is another contributor; carbon dioxide for between 4% and 9%; and tropospheric ozone for between 3% and 7%

3. CLIMATIC CHANGE - 2 • Natural variation, especially solar variation, should not be ignored. • Impacts of cloud formation and future uptake of carbon by land and oceans poorly understood. [The Royal Society] • Human attribution should include population increase, urbanisation, deforestation, food and water demands, as well as fossil fuel uses, other raw material and industrial processing, and lifestyles. • Potential sources of conflict include population movements, water ‘wars’, food scarcity, interruption or cessation of important services (transportation, heating, lighting, cooling). • Uncertainty over prospects and projections, from extent of warming to impacts of extreme weather events. • A 4º C rise in mean near surface global temperature could have catastrophic consequences. • Need for resilient responses, covering potential climate change and other likely challenges – such as ‘peak oil’.

4. RESPONSES TO CLIMATIC CHANGE • The scientific debate has become too politicised. • The climate change negotiating process is too cumbersome, key parties too divided, and clearly ineffectual. • In addition to the many Annex I countries that have greatly increased their emissions since 1990, emissions embodied in exports are not being adequately addressed. For example, over 33% of China’s CO2 emissions are now embodied in exports, mainly to Annex I countries. As a result, some Annex I countries claiming reduced emissions arguably have not done so. • Instead of treating climatic change as “the utmost priority” it may be more fruitful, and achieve positive results more quickly, to refocus our goals; take a more pluralistic approach; separate out energy and climate policy; place more urgent emphasis on tackling carbon black emissions, aerosols, methane, and tropospheric ozone which are more short-lived climatic forcing agents than CO2, the halocarbons, SF6, and nitrous oxide. • As part of the urgent responses listed, the Montreal Protocol provisions should be modified to encompass climate-warming but non-ozone depleting gases. • Urgent steps are needed to safeguard tropical forests and discourage forest degradation.

5. THE ENERGY SUPPLY DIMENSION • How best can we maintain modern energy services to those who have them already, and provide them for those who do not have access to them? • The greatest threat we face on the energy supply front – whether electricity or transportation fuels – is a lengthy period of supply disruptions, non-availability, and price escalation. Will we even be able to sustain current standards of useful energy provision? • Recognition is required that the availability of conventional oil resources will be constrained by the ‘peak oil’ challenge; and alternative sources such as shale oil (including shale gas attracting euphoria and complaints), tar sands, and heavy oil are costly to extract, require energy- and water-intensive processes, and have severe environmental implications. • Where water shortages are severe and solar insolation is high, solar energy offers great advantages. Before we consider solar energy, other forms of renewable energy are considered.

6. GLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY IN 2009 • Renewable energy accounted for 19% of world primary energy use in 2009, but 13% was represented by traditional biomass and only 6% by ‘new’ renewables. Of this 6%, over half was from large hydropower. • Hydropower contributed 15% of world electricity generation, ‘new’ renewables 3%. • Of the ‘new’ renewables excluding large hydro, wind power provided just over 52% of the total; small hydro nearly 20%; modern biomass/biofuels 17%; solar 7%; and geothermal 3%. • In 2009 wind power increased its installed capacity by 38 GW (25% over 2008). Solar collectors for hot water/space heating increased its installed capacity by 24% over 2008. • Germany accounted for 47% of the solar PV market in 2009, followed by Spain (16%), Japan (13%), and USA (6%). Both Germany and Spain have cut back their subsidies. CSP capacity in USA and Spain now totals over 1GW. Germany has built 50 MW CSP capacity and there is revived interest in the Desertec concept, to provide electricity by UHV-DC transmission from CSP installations in North Africa to Europe. • Ethanol production increased by 13.5% in 2009 over 2008, and biodiesel production increased by 40%.

7. RENEWABLE ENERGY OPTIONS – a summary ● Geothermal – significant, but localised and elsewhere. ● Large Hydro – significant at regional level, but elsewhere. ● Estuarine barrages – destroy local ecology, and elsewhere. ● Tidal stream – significant at local level, but elsewhere. ● Wave – modest significance, and largely elsewhere. ● Ocean Thermal – steady power source, but limited by need for wide water temperature difference, costs, need for proximity to markets, and environmental concerns. ● Biomass – woody biomass sources are widespread outside the Arab Middle East, but compete for land and water resource needs of food production. ● Biofuels – corn, bagasse, and palmoil are among the preferred sources but their contribution to total transportation fuel use is and will be modest, and their exploitation using first generation biofuel technologies causes environmental concerns, and competes with food production needs. There are doubts whether 2nd/3rd generation technologies (especially scaled-up closed-system algal biofuel technologies) will prove fruitful.

8. RENEWABLE ENERGY OPTIONS - continued • Wind power – variable, contribution frequently exaggerated, requires back-up from other steady sources. Even where the wind resource is claimed to be large it is usually not quite what it is made out to be. In the Arab Middle East winds are generally short-lived (the Shamal, Quas, Khamsin, Simoun, Ghibli, Haboob, Levante), although gentle breezes close to sunset are more widespread and sustained near coasts. • In Egypt it is claimed that wind speeds can reach 10 m/s, especially in the Gulf of Suez, and installed wind energy capacity now exceeds 430 MW. However, wind speed atlases for the Arab Middle East suggest mean wind speeds are below 6 m/s at 80 metres above surface level everywhere except near coast-Morocco and the SW edge of the Arabian Peninsula. • The traditional wind tower (barjeel, badgir, kashteel, malgaf) is an excellent device for using gentle breezes when they occur. Traditional – vernacular – architecture in the Arab Middle East has much to offer in seeking climate change resilience, which modern Western design and materials do not yet offer.

9. THE OBVIOUS PREFERENCE - SOLAR • Solar PV has a significant rôle to play where solar insolation is high – such as in the Arab Middle East. • Solar Thermal – Concentrating Solar Power – using parabolic mirrors and salts to assist storage, has enormous potential. This potential is huge not only in terms of potential volume of electricity generation to meet regional needs but also, using UHV-DC transmission, potentially for export to countries with lower solar insolation (e.g. in Europe from North Africa). • Passive Solar – the traditional – vernacular – architecture of the Arab Middle East in its layout, thickness of walls, use of flowing water, and response to needs for light and shade is profoundly resilient to climatic change. From the riyads of Morocco through the magnificent towering houses of Sana’a, to the Sheikh Saeed House in Dubai, the former Palace in Sharjah, and the Sheikh Isa bin Ali, Bait Sayadi, and Bait al Jasrah houses in Bahrain.