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Several Challenges Going Forward

Explore the evolution of computers and technology through Bell's insights on processors, memories, exponential growth, Moore's Law, computer price tiers, platform evolution, and cyberization challenges. Discover how the future may unfold in Cyberspace with infinite scalability and Turing tests.

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Several Challenges Going Forward

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  1. Several Challenges Going Forward Know Zone Lecture The Tech 5 May 1999 Gordon Bell Microsoft Corporation

  2. The two great inventions • The computer (1946… realised in 1948). Computers supplement and substitute for all other info processors, including humans • Memories come in a hierarchy of sizes, speeds, and prices… the challenge is to exploit them • Computers are built from other computers in a iterative, layered, and recursive fashion • The Transistor (1946) and subsequent Integrated Circuit (1957). • Processors, memories, switching, and transduction are the primitives in well-defined hardware-software levels • A little help from magnetic, photonic, and other transducer technologies

  3. 1GB 128MB 1 chip memory size ( 2 MB to 32 MB) 8MB 1MB 128KB 8KB 1980 1990 2000 1970 256M bits: 1K 4K 16K 64K 256K 1M 4M 16M 64M Moore’s First Law • Transistor density doubles every 18 months 60% increase per year • Chip density • Microprocessor speed • Exponential growth: • The past does not matter • 10x here, 10x there … means REAL change • PC costs decline faster than any other platform • Volume and learning curves • PCs are the building bricks of all future systems

  4. Mainframes (central) Log price WSs PCs (personals) Handheld ?? Time Bell’s Law of Computer Class Formation Technology enables two evolutionary paths:1. constant performance, decreasing cost2. constant price, increasing performance Mini 1.26 = 2x/3 yrs -- 10x/decade; 1/1.26 = .8 1.6 = 4x/3 yrs --100x/decade; 1/1.6 = .62

  5. Bell’s Nine Computer Price Tiers 1$: embeddables e.g. greeting card 10$: wrist watch & wallet computers 100$: pocket/ palm computers 1,000$: portable computers 10,000$: personal computers (desktop) 100,000$: departmental computers (closet) 1,000,000$: site computers (glass house) 10,000,000$: regional computers (glass castle) 100,000,000$: national centers Super server: costs more than $100,000“Mainframe”: costs more than $1 million an array of processors, disks, tapes, comm ports

  6. Platform evolution: What do they do that’s useful? How do they communicate?

  7. Tera Giga Mega Kilo 1 Storage Backbone Processing Memory ?? Telephone Service17% / year 1947 1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007 Extrapolation from 1950s: 20-30% growth per year

  8. Gains if 20, 40, & 60% / year 60%= Exaops 1.E+21 1.E+18 1.E+15 1.E+12 1.E +9 1.E+6 40%= Petaops 20%= Teraops 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045

  9. Going forward… Seven challenges Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any conversation Everything will be in Cyberspace Electrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk” Telepresence The Guardian Angel for health The Cyber Admin for personal use Infinitely scalable systems

  10. Turing test: you can’t tell whether you are communicating with a person or a machine using: • Text… limited context • Voice • context • speech to text and text to speed • Visual image and voice • more context • synthesis of dynamic, human images

  11. Going forward… challenges Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any conversation Everything will be in Cyberspace Electrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk” Telepresence The Guardian Angel for health The Cyber Admin for personal use Infinitely scalable systems

  12. Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace! Body Continent Car Region/ Intranet Home Campus, including SANs World Fractal Cyberspace: a network of … networks of … platforms

  13. “Everything will be in Cyberspace” • Is this a challenge? goal? quest? fate?… or • Cyberization enables new computing platforms thatrequire new networks to connect them • Infrastructure supports the content • Three evolutionary dimensions

  14. Cyberization: interface to all bits and process information • Coupling to all information and information processors • Pure bits e.g. paper, newspapers, video • Bit tokens e.g. money, stock • State of: places, things, and people • State of: physical networks

  15. Atoms vs Electrons for bits Atoms (mass)Electrons, etc. (massless) people know computers know bricks & mortar anywhere (personnel/clients) office hours anytime database & reports web access for review and transactions letter & fax email & web access phone email, voice & video mail personal visits videophone / videomail signature authenticated images envelopes digital envelopes / store voice, text are unique bits take on any form

  16. By January 2001 there will NOT be 1 billion people on the “net”.Bet: Nicholas Negroponte $1KBet: Nicholas Negroponte $1K:$5K… it happens by 2002.Also $1 T of commerce by 2001.

  17. Why this is the keystone bet! • It determines the market • for networks • for access devices… especially PCs • It says something about the utility • commerce • communication • entertainment • Increased network capacity & ubiquity enables • phones • videophones • television • serendipity

  18. Internetters growth 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 World Populationextrapolated at 1.6% per year Internet Growthextrapolated at 98% per year ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04

  19. Programs, Content & messages Cyberspace: A spiraling quest in 3D real space Computation Cyberization Communication

  20. Data Telephony Television Cyberspace: one, two or three networks? in 2005, 2010, 2020 Will we have gateways?

  21. Going forward… challenges Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any conversation Everything will be in Cyberspace Electrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk” Telepresence The Guardian Angel for health The Cyber Admin for personal use Infinitely scalable systems

  22. Atoms that represent money, ownership, … risk

  23. New or old money… it’s just bits Credit ATM / Prepaid Check Cash Prepaid

  24. Put those checks & statements in Cyberspace or eliminate them!

  25. Buying & selling stock: what a pain!Faxes? (Electronic signatures are legal in Georgia.)

  26. Paperless transactions: put them all in Cyberspace

  27. Atoms vs Electrons for financial bits Atoms (mass)Electrons, etc. (massless) money database, smart card, credit card, debit card statements web access bills / checks bill present. / check free coupons cyber-coupons stock database, web statements, reports web access, email +company infor, analyst reports, etc. private placements web access, email trade confirmation direct trades mail voting on line voting

  28. Going forward… challenges Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any conversation Everything will be in Cyberspace Electrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk” Telepresence The Guardian Angel for health The Cyber Admin for personal use Infinitely scalable systems

  29. Telepresence… being there while being here, at another time, and with time scaling • Telepresentations • Telemeetings and telecollaboration • The “work”

  30. Motivation:Telepresentations • Presenter and/or audience telepresent • NOT: meeting or collaboration settings • Forget the nasty social issues! Mostly one-way

  31. TelepresentationElements • Slides • Audio • Video • Script, text comments, hyperlinks,etc.

  32. Telepresentations:The Essentials • Slide and audio a must • Add some video (low quality) to make us feel good • Storage and transmission costs low

  33. Telepresentations:The Killer App • Increased attendance & lower travel costs • Practical and low-cost NOW • e.g. ACM97 - 2,000 visitors in real space, 20,000 visitors on Internethttp://research.microsoft.com/acm97

  34. What about telecollaboration?… working together at a distance

  35. Conference Rooms with Teleconferencing

  36. Telework: it’s the sound, screens, and bandwidth, stupid http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/

  37. Mobile videophone

  38. Honda Robot

  39. People surrogates

  40. By April 1, 2001 videophones will ship in 50% of the PCs and be in use. “ Gordon Bell vs Jim Gray1996 (one paper, loser gets fed) ”

  41. Living in Cyberspace… the infrastructurebeing always connected is essential

  42. Intrastructure

  43. SOHO (small office, home office)network computing environment POTS (legacy services) IP Dial tone (Internet, phone, videophone) >1.5 Mbps NT Server for: comm/network, POTS/IP gateway, file, print, compute LAN PC NC* PC *NC, NetPC, Xterm, etc. ... ... Phone Phone Phone

  44. Attending simultaneous meetings

  45. Telepresence Challenge hold a meeting of type, m university or technical course interview, staff meeting, co-ordination, board meeting, annual meeting, “town hall”, with p, distributed persons with as much interactivity and feeling such that people prefer being telepresent meetings are provably more productive meetings will evolve to be asynchronous versus traditional synchronous

  46. Milli-bill, another type of telepresence...

  47. Fujitsu 42” plasma panel

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