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Timescale Mismatches

Timescale Mismatches. David J. Hardisty Sauder School of Business University of British Columbia. People. Project with SESYNC Interdisciplinary group – mostly natural scientists (forestry, fish & wildlife, etc ) Alain Hastings, Lynn McGuire, Robyn Wilson, many others. Overview.

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Timescale Mismatches

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  1. Timescale Mismatches David J. Hardisty Sauder School of Business University of British Columbia

  2. People • Project with SESYNC • Interdisciplinary group – mostly natural scientists (forestry, fish & wildlife, etc) • Alain Hastings, Lynn McGuire, Robyn Wilson, many others

  3. Overview • Thought piece • Ecological systems operate on longer and shorter (!) timescales than humans • Illustrated in 3 cases:- Eutrophication of western Lake Erie- Forest fires in western US- Emerald ash borer and invasive species • Identify comment points where different types of mismatches arise • Suggest (behavioral) solutions

  4. Structural interactions

  5. Decision Framework

  6. Typology of timescale mismatches

  7. Western Lake Erie Eutrophication • Phosphorus is used for farming • Runoff causes harmful algal blooms • Algal blooms also exacerbated by warmer temperatures and wetter weather

  8. Mismatches • Lag between policy actions (annual), farmer actions (annual), and water quality response (decadal to generational) • Short term fluctuations in water quality due to weather • Annual economic goals, long term protection of ecology and economy

  9. Behavioral Solutions • Decision analytic tools for policy makers • Economic incentives for adoption of new technologies • Choice bracketing: fertilizer application framed as multi-annual choice(comprehensive nutrient management planning) • Display lake eutrophication as a running 3-year average rather than annual (reduce peak-end) • Focus on tracking behavioral drivers (phosphorus) rather than consequence (eutrophication) • Display current levels of eutrophication as losses with respect to some healthy reference point • Use social norms to provide immediate social benefit for farmers to change behavior • Other ideas?

  10. Other cases • Forest fires • Invasive species • Solutions? • Journals?

  11. Thank You!

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