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Quantitative Risk Assessment

Quantitative Risk Assessment. What is QRA. Systematic methodology to assess risks associated any installation Taking into consideration all forms of hazards Uses design information and historical data to estimate frequency of failure Uses modelling software to assess consequence

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Quantitative Risk Assessment

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  1. Quantitative Risk Assessment

  2. What is QRA • Systematic methodology to assess risks associated any installation • Taking into consideration all forms of hazards • Uses design information and historical data to estimate frequency of failure • Uses modelling software to assess consequence • Where/when is QRA needed • CIMAH 1989 – part of CIMAH safety report • EQA 1985 – a section under EIA

  3. Definition Risk = Severity x Likelihood • Extent of Damage • Fatality • Injuries • Losses • Analysis based on design and modeling equations • Likelihood of event • Based of failure frequency of process components • Analysis based on manufacturer’s and historical data

  4. Methodology Hazard Identification Consequence Analysis Frequency Analysis Risk Estimation and Evaluation Risk Management

  5. Hazard Identification • Purpose: to identify plausible hazard conditions • Methods • Check-list, Preliminary Hazard Review, HAZID, HAZOP etc. • Unstructured brainstorming? Further Details

  6. Frequency Analysis • Sometimes referred to as Hazard Analysis • Purpose: To estimate the likelihood for a hazard scenario to occur • Methods • Event-Tree Analysis • Fault-Tree Analysis Further Details

  7. Consequence Analysis • Purpose: To assess the extent of damage • Typical Hazard • Toxic Release, Fire and Explosion • Modelling of hazard scenario • Toxic Release: Source (Release) Model, Dispersion • Fire and explosion: Source Model, Fire and Explosion, Heat Dispersion • Fatality Assessment: Probit Analysis • Nonfatal Consequence: Skin-burn, Property damage Further Details

  8. Risk Estimation and Evaluation • Purpose: To assess Risk and Make Safety Judgment • Methods • Individual Risk: IRPA, LSIR • Societal Risk • Tolerability Criteria Further Details

  9. Risk Management • Propose: to propose mitigating measure to reduce the potential impact of the hazard and possibly reduce the risk level • Method • Safe Work Procedure at every project stages • Emergency Response Management • Emergency Response Procedure

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