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Chapter 10: Elections and Campaigns

Chapter 10: Elections and Campaigns. Types of elections. Primary / Caucus. General . Designed to pick the candidate who will actually hold office Example: Obama vs. Romney. Designed to choose the parties nominee

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Chapter 10: Elections and Campaigns

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  1. Chapter 10: Elections and Campaigns

  2. Types of elections Primary / Caucus General Designed to pick the candidate who will actually hold office Example: Obama vs. Romney • Designed to choose the parties nominee • Example: Romney, Paul, Huntsman, Gingrich, Santorum competing to be Republican nominee for 2012 • Types: • Closed: must declare in advance that you are a member of the party to take part in this election • About 40 states (why? ) • Open: on primary election day you pick which parties primary you will vote on • 8 states • Blanket: can vote in primaries for both parties • Washington & Alaska Hon .Clay Henry III of Lajitas , Texas

  3. Types of Elections • Primary / Caucus • How to get on the ballot in NJ (each state is different) http://nj.gov/state/elections/candidate_pdf/partisan-candidate-requirements-123011.pdf • It is estimated to cost about $50 million to run a successful primary/caucus campaign (Romney spent $110 million) • In the past 3 decades, in almost every case, the candidate who raised the most money during this stage in the process won their party’s nomination • What is a Caucus? • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fobO82jbNRg • 19 states • Why do most states hold primaries? • C’s are too time consuming!!!! • About 10% turnout

  4. Primaries / Caucuses • So where does that $ go? • Organization • Fundraisers , Accountants, Press secretary , Scheduler, Speech writers , TV and internet advertising specialist , Pollsters, Direct mailing company & Social media specialists Helps to win Iowa Caucus and N. H. Primary  • only 2 candidates in the past 10 elections have lost both and gone on to win their party’s nomination • G. W. Bush in 2000 • Clinton in 1992 So what do you have to do to win? Read: the excerpt from Stormy Weather • What can help a candidate gain momentum? • How long does the “invisible primary” last? • Iowa doesn’t award delegates until weeks after the caucuses, so why are the Iowa caucuses still seen as important? • Why does New Hampshire remain an indicator of who will win the eventual nomination?

  5. Primaries / Caucuses • Need to motivate voters to turn out for you • Primary turnout low • About 20% • This results in candidates trying to appeal to the base of their party while also looking ahead to general election • Republicans: need to appear conservative • Democrats: need to appear liberal • During the general election candidates generally return to more moderate stances, must remember what you say during primary/ caucus season will be used by your opponent • Can result in “Clothespin voting”

  6. Presidential Primaries / Caucuses • When voting in a P/C you are actually selecting delegates who will attend the party’s National Convention to demonstrate support for that candidate. • Much like the electoral college The Party’s decide the rules, they are not in the Constitution or state law, the party’s can change the rules prior to an election. • Democrats award delegates proportionally in all states • Republicans allow the state to decide if they want a winner take all system or a proportional system • NJ = winner take all

  7. Delegates Democrats Republican Total Number of Delegates: 2,066Pledged: 1,907Unpledged: 159 Each state gets 6 delegates plus 3 for each member in the House BONUS DELEGATES Each state can earn additional delegates by meeting one or more of the following requirements: the state cast a majority of its votes for the Republican presidential candidate in the previous presidential election the state elected Republicans to the U.S. House or Senate, selected a Republican Governor or state legislative majorities and / or the state holds its presidential primary election after March 15th (this is to discourage states from holding early primaries). • Total number of delegates: 4,339Pledged: 3,537Unpledged: 802 • PLEDGED "PLEO" (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) DELEGATES • Based on % of democratic vote in that state in the past 3 presidential elections • UNPLEDGED "PLEO" DELEGATES (Super delegates occurred after 1980)Primarily Democratic Members of Congress, Governors, and "distinguished party leaders." 802 total. • This equals 15% of pledged delegates

  8. General Presidential vs. General Congressional Campaigns Presidential Congressional Less voter turn-out, especially during midterm elections (non-presidential election years 2002,2006, 2010..) Typically about 36% turnout since 1964 Historically less party turnover (recent exceptions include 2006 and 2010) Why less turnover?!? Incumbency advantage More direct connection to the voter (service to constituents) Separate themselves from the “mess in Washington” Sophomore surge: can use perks of office to get elected • More voters participate • Typically about VEP 60% turnout since 1964 • More party turnover • Past 20 elections • Republicans 9 times • Democrats 11 times How to get on the ballot for the general election in NJ http://nj.gov/state/elections/petitions/2012-general-president-inst.pdf

  9. Presidential Elections • Who does the public prefer? • Most candidates have experience in multiple areas listed below

  10. Presidential Election • Theme? • A simple ,appealing idea that can be repeated over and over and over and over and over (you get it) • Obama: Forward • Romney: We can’t afford 4 more years • If you are an incumbent, you will invariably have to defend your record • Tone? • Positive? • Build me up • Negative? • Knock them down

  11. Negative Campaigning • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLj6yY4P_Rg Jefferson and Adams • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDTBnsqxZ3k Daisy • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Io9KMSSEZ0Y Willy Horton

  12. Timing? • Start too early and you may go broke, too late and you may not build up enough momentum or name recognition • Targets? • Who are the undecided in this election? How will you sway them? • Use precise targeting / “micro-targeting” • New demographics(see next slide)

  13. Targets: Demographics • http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/nj?hpt=elec_racenav • Need to focus on these voters and mobilize them!!!! http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/politics/july-dec12/gop_11-08.html • What groups are Republicans going to have to reach out to to win the next presidential election ? • How can the Republicans appeal to women and Latinos without changing their core beliefs?

  14. Presidential Elections • What types of issues will the candidate focus on? • Position: rival parties take different stances • Taxation: • Obama : increase taxes on wealthy to help pay down debt • Romney: decrease tax rate for all to help struggling economy • Valence: how closely a party/candidate is connected with a concept • Nixon: associated with a tough stance on crime • Reagan: more associated with a strong economy

  15. Presidential Elections • Who is going to be your Vice President? • Need to pick someone who will appeal to a part of the party you may not appeal to “balance the ticket” • Youth / Experience • Regional • Moderate / Conservative or Liberal • Unify party after bitter primary • Classic examples • Kennedy and Johnson • Reagan / G.H.W. Bush • How does Obama /Biden reflect this? • How does Romney / Ryan reflect this? • Classic Anomaly: • Clinton / Gore

  16. Presidential Elections • How will you “advertise” your candidate? • TV • Debates • Direct Mail • Internet

  17. General Election and the Electoral College • http://hallnj.org/press/press-releases/1561-video-release-hall-institute-and-league-of-women-voters-nj-release-video-psa-to-dispel-first-time-voting-myths • http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=50133559n&tag=showDoorFlexGridLeft;flexGridModule Electoral College: 538 electors in total (100+435+3) , need 270 Meet on the first Monday after the 2nd Wednesday in December votes sent to Congress counted during a joint session How are electors chosen? What happens if there is a tie? (1825) election of 1800: Jefferson v. Adams 12th amendment: Electors vote on separate ballot for pres and VP to avoid rivals holding office together http://news.yahoo.com/photos/2012-election-maps-slideshow/#crsl=%252Fphotos%252F2012-election-maps-slideshow%252Felection-maps-photo--47474268.html How the 2012 election broke down, various maps

  18. Electoral College Pros Cons Doesn’t always reflect the will of the people Can have faithless electors Doesn’t reflect the idea of 1 person, 1 vote Wyoming has one "elector" for every 177,556 people and Texas has one "elector" for about every 715,499. • Allows for both people and states to be represented : Federalism • “Extended Republic” • Need to appeal to a variety of voters, not just one faction or region

  19. Campaign Spending • Reading: • Summarize the rules governing campaign finance • FECA • BCRA / McCain Feingold Act • Public Funding • Buckley v. Valeo • What was Buckley’s argument? • What did the Supreme Court rule? • How does this currently impact elections?

  20. Campaign Finance • “There are two things that are important in politics. The first is money and I can’t remember what the second one is.” • —Ohio political boss and U.S. Senator Mark Hanna, 1895 Hard Money vs. Soft money: Hard money : money given directly to a candidate’s campaign Soft Money: money used to promotes issues Dark money: contributions that don’t have to be disclosed (501c4s)

  21. PACs and Super PACs • Political Action Committees • Created in 1940s by the CIO as a way to contribute to FDR’s campaign • Organizations that have developed with the sole purpose of helping a candidate to get (re)elected to office • Individuals and organizations can contribute up to $5,000 annually to a PAC • PACs can legally contribute only $5,000 to a candidate committee per election (primary, general or special). • They can also give up to $15,000 annually to any national party committee, and $5,000 annually to any other PAC. • However, there is no limit to how much PACs can spend on advertising in support of candidates or in promotion of their agendas or beliefs. • PACs must register with and file detailed financial reports of monies raised and spent to the Federal Election Commission.

  22. PACs and Super PACs • Traditional PACs include two distinct types of political committees registered with the FEC: • separate segregated funds (SSFs) • political committees established by corporations, labor unions, membership organizations or trade associations that can only solicit contributions from individuals associated with the sponsoring organization • Microsoft PAC • No connected committees • not sponsored by or connected to any of the listed organizations and are free to solicit contributions from the general public, subject to campaign contribution limits. • National Rifle Association

  23. Super PACs PACs and Super PACs • Created as a result of 3 Court Decisions • In January 2010, the Supreme Court dealt a major blow to McCain-Feingold (BCRA). Ruling in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, the court said that the government cannot prevent corporations and unions from spending unlimited money to support or criticize specific candidates. • Drawing on this decision in March 2010, a federal appeals court ruled in SpeechNow.org v. Federal Election Commission that political committees making independent expenditures—that is, spending not coordinated with or directed by a candidate’s campaign—could accept donations of unlimited size.

  24. PACs and Super PACs • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DmQ37zm7-uU&playnext=1&list=PL4DCB26A567603634&feature=results_video • Super PACs may not contribute directly to candidate’s campaign or to political parties but instead spend money independent of a political campaign to influence the result. • In addition, they can raise funds from corporations, unions and other groups, and from individuals, without legal limits. • According to FEC rules, Super PACs are not allowed to cooperate, consult, or act in concert with a candidate or their agents or a political party or its agents. • They can , however, publically declare support for one candidate or another. • List of current Super PACs • http://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/superpacs.php?cycle=2012

  25. Presidential Campaign Spending • http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/campaign-finance • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pMvG54GjtRI

  26. Review

  27. Rules governing campaign finance • FECA (1972): • Imposed contribution limits to a candidates campaign • Limited campaign expenditures • Need to disclose donor information • Created public financing • Created Federal Election Commission

  28. Buckley v. Valeo: testing constitutionality of FECA Constitutional Unconstitutional Limits on candidates expenditures (spending) Except if you accept public funding • Limits on direct contributions to candidates • Optional public financing • Disclosing contributions • Creation of FEC

  29. BRCA / McCain –Feingold (2002) • Labor Unions and corporations can’t fund ads, limits on attack ads prior to elections • Limits on how much $ could be given to PACs and how much PACs could give to candidates and political parties

  30. Citizens United and the 2012 Election: A Case Study • http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/c/campaign_finance/index.html • http://www.pbs.org/newshour/extra/features/us/jan-june10/scotus_01-22.pdf • http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/22/magazine/how-much-has-citizens-united-changed-the-political-game.html?pagewanted=all • Basic information about Citizens United • What changes did Citizens United make to campaign finance regulation? • Do you agree or disagree with this decision? Why? • Impact of Citizens on 2012 election • Write a 1 paragraph reaction to this article.

  31. Citizens United • 5-4 ruling by SCOTUS • Corporations and Labor Unions are allowed to give unlimited monetary contributions to outside spending groups (527s, 501c4s), the ruling was based on the 1st amendment rights of these organizations (freedom of political speech) • Labor Unions and Corporations can use general funds to create ads to support candidates or issues • Cannot directly donate to a candidate • No restrictions on when negative ads funded by outside groups can air on TV • Was 30 days before a primary, 60 days before a general election Thoughts on Citizens ruling?

  32. Frontline: Big Sky, Big Money • Day 1: • How much money has been spent on ads in the Senate race in Montana? What % has come from outside groups? Do you think that this statistic matters?( be specific) • How do 501 c4s and Super PACs differ? • Why may an individual / corporation / labor union rather contribute to a 501 c4? • Define “magic words”, give a few examples. http://video.pbs.org/video/2298009584/ link to video

  33. Big Sky, Big Money • Day 2: • Jim Bopp, Jr. contends that the anonymity that 501c4s provide donors is beneficial to the political process. Do you agree or disagree? Why? • In the case of Montana v. WTP: • What are the issues? • How does the Montana Supreme Court rule? • Ultimately how does SCOTUS rule? • After viewing the film answer the following question in 5-8 sentences citing specific examples from the film • Does having less restrictions on 501c4s impede or enhance our electoral process?

  34. Questions to consider when reflecting on campaign finance regulations • Should there be any limits on what candidates and political parties can spend during a campaign (hard money)? • Should there be any limits on what independent (outside ) expenditure groups (501c4s, 527s, Super PACs) can spend (soft money) ? • Citizens United declared that corporations and labor unions have the same rights to political free speech as individuals. Do you agree? • Can you just allow corporations or labor unions to have political personhood? • Should there be any media restrictions on the number and/or frequency of ads any entity can produce? • Should 501c4s have to disclose donors? • Should 527s, 501c4s, and Super PACS be able to coordinate with candidates? • Do these groups actually allow for more groups (factions) to be represented? (Would Madison approve?) • Do you think these groups may allow for 3rd party candidates to be viable candidates for office?

  35. Campaign Finance: Public Funding • The Federal Election Commission began public funding in 1976. • Eligible Presidential candidates use federal funds in their primary and general election campaigns, and the major parties used public funds to pay for their nominating conventions. • Candidates are eligible to get $20 mil from the government and can spend up to $50,000 of their own $, the total limit for 2012 was $91.5 million • A candidate could raise $70 million and spend that as well. • Where does the $ come from? • The U.S. Treasury makes the actual payments from the Presidential Election Campaign Fund. • This fund consists of dollars voluntarily checked off by taxpayers on their federal income tax returns. • To be eligible the candidate: • Must be a member of a political party • Must show broad based support by raising at least $5,000 in at least 20 states (100,000) http://www.fec.gov/pages/brochures/pubfund.shtml#anchor684182

  36. Congressional Elections • All 435 House seats are up for election every 2 years (even numbered years) • 1/3 of the 100 Senate seats are up for election every 2 years (even numbered years) • This is to avoid total turnover of the Senate • Mature, experienced body to temper the whims of the House • Federalism • Republic, not a democracy 

  37. House Elections • It is up to Congress to decide how many representatives each state will have • Must have at least 1 • House was originally set at 65 members, last set at 435 in 1911 and decided to keep that as the fixed number • States may have seats added or subtracted every 10 years based on the results of the census • Since the 1950s states in the Sun belt have been adding seats, states in the rust belt have lost seats • When states add or subtract seats they have to redraw their districts. • Malapportionament: unequal representation in districts (more on this later • Gerrymandering: drawing district lines to benefit one political party

  38. When creating a district these are the things that you must do!!! • Population Equality - Each election district must have the same number of constituents. This generally ranges between 640,000 - 650,000 people.At the federal level, courts tend to enforce the population equality standard very strictly. • • Contiguity - Each district must be one continuous shape. No "land islands" are allowed. U.S. courts always enforce the principle of contiguity. • • Compactness - Generally speaking, districts need to be drawn in compact shapes. Extremely jagged edges and skinny extensions are features that are the hallmarks of gerrymandered districts. Because compactness is a traditional standard about which there is no generally accepted method of measurement, the courts in most states do not usually enforce the compactness principle in practice.

  39. Gerrymandering • Term first used in 1812 to reflect the redrawing of districts in Massachusetts overseen by then Gov. Elbridge Gerry • They were drawn to favor the Democratic-Republican Party • Gerry + Salamander = gerrymander 

  40. Modern Examples

  41. Gerrymandering • Packing: when you try to fill a district with as many members of the same party as possible • may be done by 1 political party that controls the process, or by bipartisan commissions to keep incumbency advantages • Cracking: when you try to break the influence of one party or minority group in an area by dividing that area between different districts • Done when 1 political party wants to maintain control

  42. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bh4qAJDUOcc What are kidnapping and hijacking?

  43. Hijacking: If there's an incumbent you don't like, you can make their re-election difficult by putting them in a district with another incumbent of the same party to contend with. You can force a costly primary battle, weakening your likely opponent before general election. Kidnapping: Moving an incumbents house into another district where they have little name recognition, making it much more difficult for them to win (taking them from their base)

  44. Cracking a very liberal voting area in Ohio Packing districts to ensure incumbency advantage Land island, not allowed!!!! Packing African Americans into 1 district

  45. Getting elected to Congress • Most important factors in getting a candidate elected • Party, candidate characteristics, incumbency advantage and issues • Candidate Characteristics: • Race, ethnicity, religion, gender, geography, and social background all matter • In general voters prefer candidates that are closer to themselves in these categories • Incumbency advantage • 1962-2012: 90% of incumbents in the House have sought re-election and won!!!!!!!!! • 2012: 23 incumbents lost house seats • Remember 435 were up for election

  46. % of Representatives defeated while seeking re-election

  47. % of candidates not seeking re-election

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