Vulnerability and Adaptation assessments of Agriculture in China

1. Vulnerability and Adaptation assessments of Agriculture in China Wei Xiong, Erda Lin, Xiu Yang, et al. Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, MOA

2. OUTLINE • Background • Methods, tools, and corresponding V&A researches in China • Challenges we faced and possible Solutions Jakarta, Indonesia

3. BACKGROUND NCCCC (National Coordination Committee on Climate Change) NDRC (National Development and Reform Commission) MFPRC (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China) MOF (Ministry of Finance of China) MOST (Ministry of Science and Technology of China) MOA (Ministry of Agriculture of China) The NCCCC (National Coordination Committee on Climate Change) in charges of the national communication, and the initial national communication was submitted to the UNFCCC in 2004. The national communication is based on the present relevant researches or projects which mainly funded by Ministry Of Sciences and Technology (MOST). ZHB (State of Environmental Protection Administration) CMA (China Meteorological Administration) 12 Ministry members ………………….. Belong to Fund Research organizations Jakarta, Indonesia

4. BACKGROUND • China began to assess the impacts of and vulnerability and adaptation to climate change since 1990’s. the studies were concentrated on the four areas closely related to the economy, namely, water resources, agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and the coastal zones. • Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sector to climate change, nearly 70 per cent of China’s population depends directly on agriculture. Climate disasters are still big threats to food security of China. Adaptation to climate change is crucial for China due to its huge population and various and vulnerable ecosystems. Jakarta, Indonesia

5. Methods and tools Classification Methods The sensitivity of crop Production to climate change Climate change scenarios Adaptation measures or Adaptation potential capacity The vulnerability of crop Production to climate change Models or other ways The impacts of Climate change on Agriculture The integrated Assessment of agriculture to Climate change Jakarta, Indonesia

6. Experiments of rice response to warming and high CO2 Beijing, AMI, CAAS (Xie L. Y, Lin E.D. 2002) Different field management to GHG emission and crop yield. Hebei, AMI,CAAS( Wan Y.F., 2003) Methods and tools Tools 1. Sensitivity practical experiments and observation Jakarta, Indonesia

7. Integrated assessment in GIS framework (Xiong W., 2001) Geographic shifts for the safe northern limit of winter wheat in Northeast China in the next 50years based on agro-climatic indices (Jin Z.Q., 1998) Climate change scenarios GIS technology Boundary Map of China Grid partition of China Land use map FAO soil data Crop Variety Distribution Sowing date, Planting type Crop models Yield Change of every cell validation Tools 2. Agro-climatic indices and GIS Jakarta, Indonesia

8. Use the historical data, references and statistics to conclude the relationship between climate and system, and then deduce the impacts of future climate on system. It has been used frequently in China Discussion with experts and make adaptation options Tools 3. Statistical Models and Experts Estimation Jakarta, Indonesia

9. Dssat crop model Tools 4. Process-based Models Using crop models to assess the impacts of climate change on crop production and adaptation. 3 stages of simulations APSIM crop model Jakarta, Indonesia

10. Static GCMs, combining with stochastic weather generator, site specific crop model (CERES) to simulate the crop yield change of rice, maize, wheat, soybean, cotton, peanut and others (Lin Erda, AMI, CAAS,1998) . Jakarta, Indonesia

11. Transient GeneralCirculation Models (GCMs) of HadCM3 and ECHAM4 with different CO2 emission scenario by stochastic weather generator to assess the impacts of climate change on crop yields (Xiong W, Tao F.L, Xu Y.L,AMI, CAAS, 2001) Jakarta, Indonesia

12. IPCC SRES (A1, A2, B1, B2) PRECIS RCM CLIMATE SCENARIOS CROP MODEL （CERES） REGIONAL CROP MODEL （RCMCA） Regional Crop Model for Chinese Agriculture The validation at site scale The experiment data at site scale GIS Validation at regional scale The statistical data at regional scale YIELD CHANGE FOOD SECURITY Regional Climate Model (RCM)–PRECIS and Regional Crop Model –RCAMA were used to assess the crop yield and cultivation at regional scale (AMI,CAAS,2003). Jakarta, Indonesia

13. Combination of models tools and indicators tools Classification of the sensitivity of wheat to climate change (Yang X., 2003) Sensitivity Highly negative Moderately negative Slightly negative Not sensitive Slightly positive Moderately positive Highly positive Yield change rate Yield reduction >30% Yield reduction 15%~30% Yield reduction 5%~15% Yield reduction 5%~yield increase 5% Yield increase 5%~15% Yield increase 15%~30% Yield increase >30% Vulnerability value = yield change rate× water availability factor× GDP factor × population factor× other factors Classification of the vulnerability of wheat to climate change Jakarta, Indonesia

14. Distribution of the vulnerability of rain-fed (A) and irrigated wheat (B) in China

15. Tools Tools 5. Economic Models Research on costs and economic consequences of changed climate on agriculture (Zhang H. X, 1998, AMI, CAAS) Research on Climate Change, Grain Price And International Trade: Data analysis method (Chen Y, 2002, CASS); Research of climate change on the economy: Economic Input-output model, in combination with assumption of climate change (Zhange Y. Q, et al., 2001, NJU); Using Mathematical models to assess the costs of climate policy and adaptation options (Wang S. et al., 2002, Tisnghua University, Zou J, People’s University). Jakarta, Indonesia

16. Challenges and solutions • Separate assessment • Models’ calibration and validation • Assessment of extreme events • Uncertainties • Natural and social dimension • Quantitative analysis of adaptation • V&A assessment and regional sustainable development Jakarta, Indonesia

17. Climate change scenarios water Crop yield, Cultivation areas Pest, soil Water resources × × …….. × Chilo suppre-ssalis Soil Management & adaptation Challenges and solutions 1. Separate assessment for each part in one sector Solution: integrated assessment (IA) and integrated assessment model (IAM) Jakarta, Indonesia

18. Challenges and solutions 2. Models’ calibration and validation Most of the V&A assessment models were introduced from developed counties, these models possibly unfit for Chinese environments. Therefore, the models’ calibration and validation are desperately required, but this work didn’t be implemented well in China. Provide standard models’ calibration and validation manuals or methods to reduce the models’ uncertainties. Propose quantitative criteria for C&V of models Jakarta, Indonesia

19. There was no yield at all in 2004, 2005 in south ningxia, northwest China for serious drouhgt The damage caused by hail, 80% yield loss Challenges and solutions Agriculture production is more impacted by extreme events, rather than by the mean climate change. There is no effective methods, or tools to address this problem. 3. Assessment of Extreme events and climate disasters RCM shows the capacity of projecting extreme events, but by so far, there are litter available methods or models for developing counties to carry out this assessment. Jakarta, Indonesia

20. Challenges and solutions 4. Uncertainties • Scenarios: climate change and social-economical scenarios. Run lots of scenarios • Agricultural models, e.g. CO2 fertilization effect • Human dimension: agricultural policy, international trade, price, technology improvement, etc. • Other uncertainties, e.g. scale, data processing, etc. • How many uncertainties to each parts? Jakarta, Indonesia

21. Consulting with main institutions Surveying the farmers Challenges and solutions 5. Natural and social dimension • How much change was caused by climate change, how much was caused by human activities. • How to integrate the human dimension factors into V&A assessment, particular to adaptation assessment. Jakarta, Indonesia

22. Challenges and solutions 6. Practical adaptations and quantitative analysis • adaptation measures are qualitative and not operable. (adaptation measures just include: developing water-conservation agriculture, cultivating disease- and pest-resistant varieties, etc. even in IPCC reports) • lack the performance analysis and cost-benefit analysis. • Adaptation options didn’t identify to local circumstance. Case study 1: Northeast China, agricultural adaptation in northeast China to climate change Jakarta, Indonesia

23. Case study1: agricultural adaptation in northeast China to climate change • Case study 1 (typical beneficial areas): Benefiting from global warming: agricultural production in Northeast China • Objectives : • Main threats and benefits to agriculture production due to climate change • Available adaptation options and effects • Key player in northeast China and their responses • Winter wheat northwards • Rapid expansion of rice planting areas • Promote crop production and increase farmer’s income. (One rotation to two in north and two to three in south). 3. Assess adjustments and measure the adaptation strategies: 4. Key player and their responses: • Framer: earlier sowing, longer growth period varieties • State-owned farms: ‘high quality grain program’ gave techniques and capital assistance to target farms. • Agricultural technology dissemination groups: substantial technical support to cope with climate change. • Capital organisations: financial support • Central and local government: make adaptation strategies Jakarta, Indonesia

24. Challenges and solutions 7. V&A assessment and regional/national sustainable development • How can the researches objectives reflect the requirement of policy makers. • How can incorporate the climate change research results into local development and management, improve the local/national sustainable development. Case study 2 –Ningxia (northwest China), integrated assessment to improve the sustainable development. Jakarta, Indonesia

25. Case study 2 –Ningxia (northwestChina), integrated assessment to improve the sustainable development • Case study 2 (typical suffering area): integrated assessment of agricultural production in Ningxia under climate change scenarios 2. Objectives. On the way • Vulnerability of agriculture production to CC • Integrated modeling of the impacts of CC, water availability, social economy, and technology on future agricultural production. • Key institutions and adaptive countermeasures • Key stakeholders and management frameworks • Adaptation strategies to climate change, particular to enhanced drought. Jakarta, Indonesia

26. Thanks